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Kawakami: Warriors extras: The Landry/Jack luxury-tax crunch, possible acquisitions to consider, buying a pick, and more
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Allen
May 19, 2013, 11:11:15 AM5/19/13
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with Tim Kawakami
Warriors extras: The Landry/Jack luxury-tax crunch, possible
acquisitions to consider, buying a pick, and more
Posted by Tim Kawakami on May 18th, 2013 at 12:32 pm
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2013/05/18/warriors-extras-the-landryjack-luxury-tax-crunch-possible-acquisitions-to-consider-buying-a-pick-and-more/#more-18434
A few add-on items that could�ve gone into the What Next for the
Warriors column I wrote yesterday, but didn�t fit�
* Andrew Bogut and I mentioned this quickly, but here�s an explainer for
why the Warriors probably are facing a Carl Landry/Jarrett Jack
either-or situation this summer�
-Counting Landry�s player-option for $4M (a salary the GSWs would
presumably have to increase if he opts-out and they bid to retain him),
the Warriors have committed about $74M to 12 players next season.
That�s already ABOVE the presumed luxury-tax line of anywhere from $70M
to $73M for next season (mostly thanks to the combined $58M salaries of
five players�Bogut, David Lee, Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson and
Steph Curry�next season).
And that doesn�t include unrestricted free agent Jarrett Jack, whose
starting asking price is expected to be above $5M, the mid-level
exception. (We�ll see what he gets, but everybody I talk to assumes the
bidding STARTS at $5M in the first year of any multi-year offer.)
So by retaining just one of the two pending/potential key free agents,
the Warriors would already go above the luxury-tax line, and remember,
GSW ownership scrupulously avoided that this season by giving away
Jeremy Tyler and Charles Jenkins.
I think Joe Lacob and his partners would be willing to pay the luxury
tax, but it�d be only after very, very, very careful consideration .
And then, I don�t think they�d go over the $4M apron�if you go more than
$4M over the lux-tax line, you start incurring much more serious
restrictions.
And to bring both Jack and Landry back, the Warriors almost certainly
would be going over the apron. To go over the apron, the GSWs would have
to believe they�re acquiring a difference-making player to do it, and
that�s not Jack or Landry or even Jack AND Landry at this point.
Bringing both Jack and Landry back at market price�inflated by the
Warriors� and the two players� showing in the postseason�would probably
push the Warriors within a million or two of $80M, deep into the tax,
and that�s almost certainly an absolute no way at this point.
So I think it�s one or the other, and it�s likely to be Jack� and the
Warriors will try to get a player or two to fill in for what Landry gave
them. He�s valuable, but maybe they can get more versatile players
there. We�ll see.
If the GSWs bring back neither, they�d be sitting in the $66M range for
next season, still well above the probable salary-cap line but enough
under the lux-tax level that they could sign a player or two at moderate
rates.
* How do they replace either Landry or Jack or both if they have such
financial restrictions�and are over the cap?
Remember, teams can always go over the cap line to re-sign their own
free agents� up to a point.
And the Warriors will be able to use a $5M �mid-level� exception, if
they choose. And they don�t have to use all of it�they can break it up
to sign different players, or just use part of it for one player
Some free-agent names to consider for the parts of the exception: Mike
Dunleavy Jr., Darren Collison, Beno Udrih, Aaron Brooks, Marco Belinelli,
The Warriors could also use ALL of the $5M exception or use Landry
and/or Jack for sign-and-trade possibilities, and in those cases, I
might offer up some larger names for discussion, including:
-Houston�s Carlos Delfino ($3M team option with Houston), Kyle Lowry
($6.2M team option with Toronto), Mo Williams (unrestricted), Tyreke
Evans (restricted F/A with Sacramento), Corey Brewer (unrestricted),
Paul Millsap (unrestricted).
* I haven�t heard much interest around the league for Andris Biedrins
($9M) or Richard Jefferson ($11M), whose deals both finally expire next
season.
(Both players actually have player-options for next season, but both
are locks to exercise those options�it�s guaranteed money.)
It�s more likely that other teams want to dump longer-term bad deals in
any talks for one of those two, but the Warriors wouldn�t be interested
in that.
Also, the Warriors might be asked to throw-in Klay Thompson or Harrison
Barnes for a team to take the Biedrins or Jefferson deal off their
hands, and there�s no way the Warriors do that, either.
So for the notion that the Warriors could use the big expirings as a
trade chip� maybe check back at the trade deadline next February for
teams wanting/needing to dive under by next off-season.
If the Warriors keep Biedrins and Jefferson and let both contracts
expire next season, they�d drop under the salary-cap line for summer
2014� with Bogut as an unrestricted F/A, also.
(And Klay Thompson�s second-deal extension wouldn�t be due for another
year� and wouldn�t kick in, if signed, until July 2015.)
* Bogut is also an expiring next season ($14.2M) but he falls into a
different category, obviously, because if he plays well there�s little
doubt the Warriors would want to extend his deal, if possible.
And I doubt they�d be interested in using him in any kind of trade�
though with Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum and other big names out there in
free agency, I wouldn�t doubt if the Warriors get a call or two.
But I think it�s clear that Bogut will be a Warrior next season. Given
his ankle issues, it�d be impossible for the Warriors to duplicate his
value by trading him� and the short time remaining on his deal is good
for all sides to determine his true worth.
Beyond that� Who knows.
* Yes, I should�ve listed Brandon Rush, who blew out his knee early this
season, as a key returning piece.
Nobody knows what level he�ll be at next season, but if he makes it back
close to what he was, he�s an important bench player and physical
defensive presence on the perimeter.
* The Warriors currently have no picks in the upcoming draft, but an NBA
source indicated that there probably will be 1st- and/or 2nd-round picks
available around draft time..
What would it cost? Mostly money, the source said. Lacob & Co. have a
proven willingness to spend cash for picks�the way they bought the
2nd-round pick in 2011 that they used for Jeremy Tyler.
This isn�t considered a very good draft, which works two ways for a team
looking to buy in: There�s not a great compelling reason to jump into
the draft� but also other teams might be more willing to sell a pick
because there�s nothing major available.
The Warriors landed Festus Ezeli late in the first and Draymond Green in
the second round last season; they�ve proven they can identify late
talent. They�ll probably look to do it again.
* One theoretical David Lee trade scenario (that won�t happen, but it
has been floated by NBA sources as the kind of thing the Warriors could
think about and try to pull off):
Lee for Pau Gasol. JUST THEORETICAL I AM POINTING OUT AGAIN.
The Lakers are not likely to pull the trigger on that, because Gasol is
too valuable to them at the moment.
But two NBA sources suggested that one to me just as a starting point
for a versatile post player who hypothetically could fit much better
alongside Bogut� and makes a large enough salary for his own team to
consider a DLee swap.
Again: Won�t happen for a lot of reasons, but if Lacob is ever convinced
to consider the possibility of moving Lee, that�s the kind of thing that
would feasible.
with Tim Kawakami
Warriors extras: The Landry/Jack luxury-tax crunch, possible
acquisitions to consider, buying a pick, and more
Posted by Tim Kawakami on May 18th, 2013 at 12:32 pm
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2013/05/18/warriors-extras-the-landryjack-luxury-tax-crunch-possible-acquisitions-to-consider-buying-a-pick-and-more/#more-18434
A few add-on items that could�ve gone into the What Next for the
Warriors column I wrote yesterday, but didn�t fit�
* Andrew Bogut and I mentioned this quickly, but here�s an explainer for
why the Warriors probably are facing a Carl Landry/Jarrett Jack
either-or situation this summer�
-Counting Landry�s player-option for $4M (a salary the GSWs would
presumably have to increase if he opts-out and they bid to retain him),
the Warriors have committed about $74M to 12 players next season.
That�s already ABOVE the presumed luxury-tax line of anywhere from $70M
to $73M for next season (mostly thanks to the combined $58M salaries of
five players�Bogut, David Lee, Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson and
Steph Curry�next season).
And that doesn�t include unrestricted free agent Jarrett Jack, whose
starting asking price is expected to be above $5M, the mid-level
exception. (We�ll see what he gets, but everybody I talk to assumes the
bidding STARTS at $5M in the first year of any multi-year offer.)
So by retaining just one of the two pending/potential key free agents,
the Warriors would already go above the luxury-tax line, and remember,
GSW ownership scrupulously avoided that this season by giving away
Jeremy Tyler and Charles Jenkins.
I think Joe Lacob and his partners would be willing to pay the luxury
tax, but it�d be only after very, very, very careful consideration .
And then, I don�t think they�d go over the $4M apron�if you go more than
$4M over the lux-tax line, you start incurring much more serious
restrictions.
And to bring both Jack and Landry back, the Warriors almost certainly
would be going over the apron. To go over the apron, the GSWs would have
to believe they�re acquiring a difference-making player to do it, and
that�s not Jack or Landry or even Jack AND Landry at this point.
Bringing both Jack and Landry back at market price�inflated by the
Warriors� and the two players� showing in the postseason�would probably
push the Warriors within a million or two of $80M, deep into the tax,
and that�s almost certainly an absolute no way at this point.
So I think it�s one or the other, and it�s likely to be Jack� and the
Warriors will try to get a player or two to fill in for what Landry gave
them. He�s valuable, but maybe they can get more versatile players
there. We�ll see.
If the GSWs bring back neither, they�d be sitting in the $66M range for
next season, still well above the probable salary-cap line but enough
under the lux-tax level that they could sign a player or two at moderate
rates.
* How do they replace either Landry or Jack or both if they have such
financial restrictions�and are over the cap?
Remember, teams can always go over the cap line to re-sign their own
free agents� up to a point.
And the Warriors will be able to use a $5M �mid-level� exception, if
they choose. And they don�t have to use all of it�they can break it up
to sign different players, or just use part of it for one player
Some free-agent names to consider for the parts of the exception: Mike
Dunleavy Jr., Darren Collison, Beno Udrih, Aaron Brooks, Marco Belinelli,
The Warriors could also use ALL of the $5M exception or use Landry
and/or Jack for sign-and-trade possibilities, and in those cases, I
might offer up some larger names for discussion, including:
-Houston�s Carlos Delfino ($3M team option with Houston), Kyle Lowry
($6.2M team option with Toronto), Mo Williams (unrestricted), Tyreke
Evans (restricted F/A with Sacramento), Corey Brewer (unrestricted),
Paul Millsap (unrestricted).
* I haven�t heard much interest around the league for Andris Biedrins
($9M) or Richard Jefferson ($11M), whose deals both finally expire next
season.
(Both players actually have player-options for next season, but both
are locks to exercise those options�it�s guaranteed money.)
It�s more likely that other teams want to dump longer-term bad deals in
any talks for one of those two, but the Warriors wouldn�t be interested
in that.
Also, the Warriors might be asked to throw-in Klay Thompson or Harrison
Barnes for a team to take the Biedrins or Jefferson deal off their
hands, and there�s no way the Warriors do that, either.
So for the notion that the Warriors could use the big expirings as a
trade chip� maybe check back at the trade deadline next February for
teams wanting/needing to dive under by next off-season.
If the Warriors keep Biedrins and Jefferson and let both contracts
expire next season, they�d drop under the salary-cap line for summer
2014� with Bogut as an unrestricted F/A, also.
(And Klay Thompson�s second-deal extension wouldn�t be due for another
year� and wouldn�t kick in, if signed, until July 2015.)
* Bogut is also an expiring next season ($14.2M) but he falls into a
different category, obviously, because if he plays well there�s little
doubt the Warriors would want to extend his deal, if possible.
And I doubt they�d be interested in using him in any kind of trade�
though with Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum and other big names out there in
free agency, I wouldn�t doubt if the Warriors get a call or two.
But I think it�s clear that Bogut will be a Warrior next season. Given
his ankle issues, it�d be impossible for the Warriors to duplicate his
value by trading him� and the short time remaining on his deal is good
for all sides to determine his true worth.
Beyond that� Who knows.
* Yes, I should�ve listed Brandon Rush, who blew out his knee early this
season, as a key returning piece.
Nobody knows what level he�ll be at next season, but if he makes it back
close to what he was, he�s an important bench player and physical
defensive presence on the perimeter.
* The Warriors currently have no picks in the upcoming draft, but an NBA
source indicated that there probably will be 1st- and/or 2nd-round picks
available around draft time..
What would it cost? Mostly money, the source said. Lacob & Co. have a
proven willingness to spend cash for picks�the way they bought the
2nd-round pick in 2011 that they used for Jeremy Tyler.
This isn�t considered a very good draft, which works two ways for a team
looking to buy in: There�s not a great compelling reason to jump into
the draft� but also other teams might be more willing to sell a pick
because there�s nothing major available.
The Warriors landed Festus Ezeli late in the first and Draymond Green in
the second round last season; they�ve proven they can identify late
talent. They�ll probably look to do it again.
* One theoretical David Lee trade scenario (that won�t happen, but it
has been floated by NBA sources as the kind of thing the Warriors could
think about and try to pull off):
Lee for Pau Gasol. JUST THEORETICAL I AM POINTING OUT AGAIN.
The Lakers are not likely to pull the trigger on that, because Gasol is
too valuable to them at the moment.
But two NBA sources suggested that one to me just as a starting point
for a versatile post player who hypothetically could fit much better
alongside Bogut� and makes a large enough salary for his own team to
consider a DLee swap.
Again: Won�t happen for a lot of reasons, but if Lacob is ever convinced
to consider the possibility of moving Lee, that�s the kind of thing that
would feasible.
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