Break out season at age 27.
nomisnala
having a medicre
1998 at age 26, and showing little potential in 1997 at age 25 Rich
Aurilia had a nice
season in 1999, which was followed by another nice season, and then
followed by a
career year. If you hold back a guy from improving and facing MLB
pitching at age
23, or24 where he may be at some critical period to adjust to MLB
speed, you may
indeed hold back players from meeting their potential, and thus
thrwarting their
career trajectories. I cannot say that folks know an exact critical
period that one
can best muster performance at an enhanced level, but such period are
well documented
in pyschological and psychiatric literature when it comes to human
development. Not
everyone matures at the same rate, so their are always exceptions, but
sitting on the
bench and playing every third day, and pinch hitting late in a game,
for many, is not
the best way to demonstrate their abilities.
Zee
Aurilia is a pretty good example. But again, it's not that it *can't* happen --
it's that the probability is very low. It is very much the exception rather than
the rule. So, if we are trying to win now (in the next 1-2 years) during this
small window with our pitching staff, I would replace any of these guys with a
PMLV who is slightly better....just not for $6mil.
nomisnala
>
> - Show quoted text -
The giants are the team that will make the exception, because they
keep
blocking reasonable talent. Loduca may have even been older, he was
decent, and had to wait forever.
Zee
>> Aurilia is a pretty good example. But again, it's not that it *can't* happen --
>> it's that the probability is very low. It is very much the exception rather than
>> the rule. So, if we are trying to win now (in the next 1-2 years) during this
>> small window with our pitching staff, I would replace any of these guys with a
>> PMLV who is slightly better....just not for $6mil.- Hide quoted text -
>>
>> - Show quoted text -
>
> The giants are the team that will make the exception, because they
> keep blocking reasonable talent.
I'm not sure why you're under the impression that teams regularly start guys
with career OBPs around .300 just to see if they'll improve. That's what the
minors are for -- to improve your game until you're big-league ready. These guys
have all had 400+ ABs in the majors and they showed they are not ready yet.
That's enough ABs to know it's not a sample size issue. Let them continue to
work on their game in the minors.
By the way, how many ABs is enough? How long before you stop playing them? 1000
ABs? 2000 ABs? What makes you think, right now, that these guys have the
capacity to improve still and are "reasonable talent"?
> Loduca may have even been older, he was decent, and had to wait forever.
We're not talking about players who broke into the bigs late. We're talking
about players who broke into the bigs early but struggled for several years
before finally becoming big-league quality. LoDuca's first year with more than
100 ABs he hit .320, so he did not take several seasons at the big-league level
before success. LoDuca made the most of his chance when he got it. Our guys have
not.
Chuck Stearns
"nomisnala" <ari...@bellsouth.net> wrote in message
news:9d6f23fc-5d71-41b6...@22g2000yqr.googlegroups.com...
nomisnala
Living in south florida I have routinely seen the marlins do that, and
many of
these guys have developed and now one of them is coveted by many
giants
fans, and I am not sure why!
GiantsMojo
Matt Williams in his first 747 PA has an OBP of .243 he had very
similar problems that Bowker has and that is he couldn't lay off the
slider in the dirt, was moved back and forth from the minors a few
times and he finally got it. The thing is he was given a second and
third chance.
Greg Lentz
That is a horrible comparison just on age alone.
--
Greg Lentz
GiantsMojo
You're right, I thought Bowker was brought up at 22 not 24. Still 26
is not too late to be given a chance to improve considering that
Bowker did improve his BB rate considerably when he was sent down.
Greg Lentz
I don't mind letting Bowker and Schierholtz battle it out for one outfield
spot if you address the other outfield spot (note - DeRosa does not count
as "addressing") but neither is a big enough prospect that you expect lots
of improvement from either. More like you put whichever one of them ends
up doing significantly better than the other in the position.
--
Greg Lentz
Peter Lawrence
The best hope for a very good homegrown outfielder for the Giants right now
is probably Roger Kieschnick. But he is a least one if not two years away
from being called up.
- Peter
GiantsMojo
wrote:
I like Thomas Neal better but both look like good prospects, better
then Schierholtz and Bowker. BTW Neal had a very impressive AFL for a
21 year old.