The Cirillo Plan
David Cameron
>Right. No problem just as long as they replace the offense. Who's your idea
>for LF? I'd love to see Cirillo here at 3B, but he'd cost players. Ideally
>they'd go get a FA LF
Little do you know, its already underway, but the Mariners are going to
engage in the single best offseason transaction of the year. Call it a
hunch, but I bet they actually DO this.
1. Let David Bell sign with Colorado as a free agent. Receive 1st round
pick as compensation (and laugh hysterically). Have fun with father.
2. Talk to Colorado, new home of star 3rd baseman David Bell, about
acquiring the overpriced Jeff Cirillo. After spending nearly $300 million
last offseason, the Rox need to trim some payroll, and this 31 year old
veteran 3B makes $30 million the next 4 years. With the almight Bell family
in town, the Rockies could shave some serious cash and still have a
fantastic 3rd baseman.
3. Convince Colorado that, due to the worst ERA in the national league, they
need pitching. And quality major league pitching, none of those overhyped A
ball prospects. Show them flashy pictures of Dennis Stark and piecharts
contrasting his ERA vs Brian Bohanon's.
4. Point to the lousy bullpen as the key to the Rockies pitching woes and
Gabe White and his 6.25 ERA in particular. Convince them that Jose
Paniagua's struggles with control are simply mental, and his seasonal
average for HR's allowed is only 8, perfect for Coors Field.
5. Offer to provide proven veteran winner Paul Abbott, he of the 17-4
record, to help establish a good rotation with
Hampton/Neagle/Elarton/Abbott/Stark.
6. Consumate trade of Paul Abbott, Dennis Stark, and Jose Paniagua to
Colorado for Jeff Cirillo and Gabe White.
7. Laugh evilly as Abbott, Stark, and Paniagua all post ERA's near 7, Gabe
White returns to form as the best left-handed reliever in baseball, and Jeff
Cirillo is trained under the watchful eye of his older twin, Edgar Martinez.
Watch Cirillo's patience return, leading to a .420 on base % and a chase at
the major league doubles record. Watch him win a gold glove and post a .900
OPS.
Than send Buddy Bell a thank you card. It should arrive shortly before the
telegram from Jerry McMorris which includes a pink slip.
Think I'm making this all up?
http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1002,96~192656,00.html
Okay, so I included all the names of everyone besides Bell and Cirillo. But
honestly, I actually expect the Mariners to get Jeff Cirillo and the Rockies
to end up with David Bell. And the amazing part is that the compensation we
receive for "losing" Bell as a free agent will probably be more valuable
than the compensation the Rockies receive for trading Jeff Cirillo.
O.D.
Benjamin Ramm
> 1. Let David Bell sign with Colorado as a free agent. Receive 1st
> round pick as compensation (and laugh hysterically). Have fun with
> father.
I think that Bell, if he goes to Colorado, will be just the sort of hitter
whose numbers will be inflated by Coors, the stadium not the beer, and
he'll look like a good bargain so long as no one clicks on that "splits"
hyperlink on ESPN.com.
> 3. Convince Colorado that, due to the worst ERA in the national
> league, they need pitching. And quality major league pitching, none
> of those overhyped A ball prospects. Show them flashy pictures of
> Dennis Stark and piecharts contrasting his ERA vs Brian Bohanon's.
Why? Because pie charts are *always* visually deceptive.
> 4. Point to the lousy bullpen as the key to the Rockies pitching woes
> and Gabe White and his 6.25 ERA in particular. Convince them that
> Jose Paniagua's struggles with control are simply mental, and his
> seasonal average for HR's allowed is only 8, perfect for Coors Field.
It's just crazy enough to work. I'm not saying that Colorado has been
managed all that well. But it would be nice if Randy Smith or Alan Baird
were some how part of the audience for this sort of sales pitch.
> 5. Offer to provide proven veteran winner Paul Abbott, he of the 17-4
> record, to help establish a good rotation with
> Hampton/Neagle/Elarton/Abbott/Stark.
Damn, what do you have against Paul Abbott? Sure, I think he'll make more
money than he's worth given the Mariners' other available pitchers. But
shipping him to Coors? That's personal.
> http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1002,96~192656,00.html
That's really scary.
Somehow, I don't think they're stupid enough to want middling pitchers.
They haven't gone after middling pitchers in the free agent market to fill
gaps, why go for them in trades?
Ben Ramm
Dave Paisley
Benjamin Ramm wrote:
>
> On Wed, 24 Oct 2001, David Cameron wrote:
>
> > 1. Let David Bell sign with Colorado as a free agent. Receive 1st
> > round pick as compensation (and laugh hysterically). Have fun with
> > father.
>
> I think that Bell, if he goes to Colorado, will be just the sort of hitter
> whose numbers will be inflated by Coors, the stadium not the beer, and
> he'll look like a good bargain so long as no one clicks on that "splits"
> hyperlink on ESPN.com.
It's been 9 years now and few people have caught on...
> > 5. Offer to provide proven veteran winner Paul Abbott, he of the 17-4
> > record, to help establish a good rotation with
> > Hampton/Neagle/Elarton/Abbott/Stark.
>
> Damn, what do you have against Paul Abbott? Sure, I think he'll make more
> money than he's worth given the Mariners' other available pitchers. But
> shipping him to Coors? That's personal.
>
> > http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1002,96~192656,00.html
>
> That's really scary.
But I love David's evil nefarious scheme. For little more than Bell will
want (and get?) we get a much better 3B, a first round pick and a
cleaner looking pitching staff...
> Somehow, I don't think they're stupid enough to want middling pitchers.
> They haven't gone after middling pitchers in the free agent market to fill
> gaps, why go for them in trades?
*Last* year's strategy was to go for high priced free agents and hope
that they can somehow elude the worst of Coors effect. As that didn't
work, plan B (C, D, E, F anyone?) may well be to acquire reasonably
priced pitching and see who pans out best.
Until the Rockies win something they'll keep changing strategies and
tactics until they do. And even if and when they win, their tactics may
have had little to do with it...
dave
Dan Szymborski
seabu...@nospamhome.com says...
> > On Tue, 23 Oct 2001, Ivan Weiss wrote:
>
> >Right. No problem just as long as they replace the offense. Who's your idea
> >for LF? I'd love to see Cirillo here at 3B, but he'd cost players. Ideally
> >they'd go get a FA LF
>
> Little do you know, its already underway, but the Mariners are going to
> engage in the single best offseason transaction of the year. Call it a
> hunch, but I bet they actually DO this.
While it's a happy result for the Mariners, why would Dan O'Dowd do this?
He's not Bob Gebhard and goes on and on about OBP and SLG and on many
occasions has talked about the three-year park factors for Coors that he
uses.
[...]
--
Dan Szymborski
d...@baseballprimer.com
"A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is not a whole-hearted
supporter of what is good."
-Robert Schumann
David Cameron
"Dan Szymborski" <d...@baseballprimer.com> wrote in message
news:MPG.16409d6e...@news.cis.dfn.de...
> While it's a happy result for the Mariners, why would Dan O'Dowd do this?
Drunken stupor.
> He's not Bob Gebhard and goes on and on about OBP and SLG and on many
> occasions has talked about the three-year park factors for Coors that he
> uses.
He seems to alternate great move with horrible move. Sign Tom Goodwin to 3
year deal, piss off all fans. Trade Tom Goodwin to Dodgers, cause great
rejoicing. Sign Brian Hunter, cause mass suicide. Trade Brian Hunter to
Cincinatti, season tickets double. Give Ben Petrick starting job, than
decide he's no good. Bring in Brent Mayne, than ship him to KC. Get Todd
Walker cheap, than sign Todd Walker to a mutli year contract. Than realize
Todd Walker sucks and trade him to Cincinatti.
If nothing else, it seems he's quick to understand that he made mistakes.
He just makes a good amount of them.
O.D.
Benjamin Ramm
> "Dan Szymborski" <d...@baseballprimer.com> wrote in message
>
> > While it's a happy result for the Mariners, why would Dan O'Dowd do this?
>
> Drunken stupor.
Do "this?" Is "this" (a) trading Cirillo or (b) trading him at the price
David proposes?
I think that trading Cirillo is more likely than trading him at this
price. On the other hand, a Seattle Times article today talks of the
Mariners being quite interested in Scott Rolen.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/134358051_mari240.html
Ben Ramm
Michael Cox
<d...@baseballprimer.com> wrote:
> While it's a happy result for the Mariners, why would Dan O'Dowd do
> this?
>
> He's not Bob Gebhard and goes on and on about OBP and SLG and on many
> occasions has talked about the three-year park factors for Coors that
> he uses.
Of course "talked about" and "acted upon" are two completely different
phrases...
MC
---------------------------------------------------------------------
"Hey, it's Griffey! He's naked in the yard again!" - Scott Rolen
Brent
>price. On the other hand, a Seattle Times article today talks of the
>Mariners being quite interested in Scott Rolen.
>
>http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/134358051_mari240.html
>
>Ben Ramm
Until ESPN.com comes out with this:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/2001/1024/1268489.html
I'll bet Philly will open talks, learn he won't resign, then trade him. Should
take about 5 minutes to discover he wants out.
Brent
Russ Queen
> I think that trading Cirillo is more likely than trading him at this
> price. On the other hand, a Seattle Times article today talks of the
> Mariners being quite interested in Scott Rolen.
Would anyone do a Pineiro, Abbott and Antonio Perez for Rolen? The
Phillies definitely suffered from lack of starting pitching depth.
I would hate to give up Perez, but the Phillies are going to want
something offensive back, albeit only a High-Level Prospect (and one
who lost effectively an entire year of development).
I supsect Ed Wade might be in the "can be had" category of GMs.
RQ
Jason Michael Barker
> I think that trading Cirillo is more likely than trading him at this
> price. On the other hand, a Seattle Times article today talks of the
> Mariners being quite interested in Scott Rolen.
The Phillies came out today and said they aren't going to move Rolen, so a
deal would seem to be right around the corner.
--
jason michael barker
jmba...@alumni.washington.edu
Get caught looking again...
*http://www.strikethree.com*
...for the very first time.
Benjamin Ramm
> > (snip)
> > I think that trading Cirillo is more likely than trading him at this
> > price. On the other hand, a Seattle Times article today talks of the
> > Mariners being quite interested in Scott Rolen.
>
> Would anyone do a Pineiro, Abbott and Antonio Perez for Rolen?
Depends on (1) how long they can sign Rolen for on an extension, (2) how
healthy he is, and (3) how healthy the Mariners other pitching prospects
are.
So basically, no.
> The Phillies definitely suffered from lack of starting pitching depth.
Yes, they did. And so could the Mariners after that trade. That's what
they did with Kevin Mitchell.
I figure any team reasonably needs seven pitchers because of injuries and
random flame-outs. And they can't all be of the AAA variety. The
Mariners seem to have: Garcia, Moyer, Tomko, Stark, Halama, and Franklin
all with some starting ability, good health, and major league experience.
Sele might be back or someone else on the free agent market. But I have
doubts.
Meche and Anderson are coming off injuries. Anderson has never pitched in
the majors. These two should start off in middle relief, if not Tacoma.
If they turn into starters... wonderful. They may have to for the
Mariners to do really well in 2002. But I don't think they should plan on
it.
Wooten and Heaverlo are on the outside of the major leagues. Ramsay will,
I think, be gone since he'll be a minor league free agent. But let's just
assume he'll be back.
So the way I see it, the Mariners have -- at most -- twelve possibilities
for starters.
Of those, only Garcia, Moyer, and Sele/free agent replacement can really
fill the top of the rotation. One of those guys goes down and so do the
Mariners.
All of the rest fill the last spot in a rotation or the long relief role,
assuming the Mariners are really serious about contending.
Abbott and Piniero, however, are good enough that they could be a good
middle of the rotation. Without them, the Mariners have pretty much
nothing but the sort of reliance on mediocre young pitching that cost them
a division title in 1996 and a bunch of prospects in 1995 and 1997.
> I supsect Ed Wade might be in the "can be had" category of GMs.
What makes you think that? The signing of Jose Mesa?
Ben Ramm
Russ Queen
>
> What makes you think that? The signing of Jose Mesa?
Nah, that one worked out, maraculously. I was thinking of Bruce Chen
and Adam Walker for Cook and Wendell, most recently.
>
> Ben Ramm
FM
> "Dan Szymborski" <d...@baseballprimer.com> wrote:
> > He's not Bob Gebhard and goes on and on about OBP and SLG and on many
> > occasions has talked about the three-year park factors for Coors that he
> > uses.
>
> He seems to alternate great move with horrible move. Sign Tom Goodwin to
3
> year deal, piss off all fans. Trade Tom Goodwin to Dodgers, cause great
> rejoicing.
It was a good move, overall. It's very likely that
he had a good idea of Tom Goodwin's trade value when
he signed him.
> Sign Brian Hunter, cause mass suicide. Trade Brian Hunter to
> Cincinatti, season tickets double. Give Ben Petrick starting job, than
> decide he's no good. Bring in Brent Mayne, than ship him to KC. Get Todd
> Walker cheap, than sign Todd Walker to a mutli year contract. Than
realize
> Todd Walker sucks and trade him to Cincinatti.
Of course, they got Jose Ortiz and Juan Uribe to
replace Todd Walker and Neifi Perez. And Alex Ochoa
is probably a good fit for Coors Field, given his
athleticism.
Dan.
Jason Michael Barker
> On 24 Oct 2001, Russ Queen wrote:
> > The Phillies definitely suffered from lack of starting pitching depth.
>
> Yes, they did. And so could the Mariners after that trade. That's what
> they did with Kevin Mitchell.
Huh? The Kevin Mitchell trade destroyed the *bullpen,* not the starting
rotation. Bill Swift pitched 90.1 innings with a 1.99 ERA the year before
the trade (he was out of the starting rotation by then) and Mike Jackson
pitched 88.2 innings with a 3.25 ERA. The two combined for 143 games. Dave
Burba appeared in 22 games, but only made two starts.
It was very good pen in 1991, but fell apart the next year when Swift and
Jackson's innings were replaced by the likes of Mike Schooler (before he
was good), Dennis Powell, Russ Swan and Calvin Jones.
> Wooten and Heaverlo are on the outside of the major leagues. Ramsay will,
> I think, be gone since he'll be a minor league free agent. But let's just
> assume he'll be back.
Ramsay's not a FA, so you're OK there.
Benjamin Ramm
> On Wed, 24 Oct 2001, Benjamin Ramm wrote:
>
> > On 24 Oct 2001, Russ Queen wrote:
>
> > > The Phillies definitely suffered from lack of starting pitching depth.
> >
> > Yes, they did. And so could the Mariners after that trade. That's what
> > they did with Kevin Mitchell.
>
> Huh? The Kevin Mitchell trade destroyed the *bullpen,* not the
> starting rotation.
It destroyed the pitching. The point I was making was that trading what
looks to be excess depth often ends up gutting a key component of a team,
be that starting or relief pitching.
> Ramsay's not a FA, so you're OK there.
Oh, thank goodness!
Ben Ramm
Dan Szymborski
seabu...@nospamhome.com says...
>
> "Dan Szymborski" <d...@baseballprimer.com> wrote in message
> news:MPG.16409d6e...@news.cis.dfn.de...
>
> > While it's a happy result for the Mariners, why would Dan O'Dowd do this?
>
> Drunken stupor.
>
> > He's not Bob Gebhard and goes on and on about OBP and SLG and on many
> > occasions has talked about the three-year park factors for Coors that he
> > uses.
>
> He seems to alternate great move with horrible move. Sign Tom Goodwin to 3
> year deal, piss off all fans. Trade Tom Goodwin to Dodgers, cause great
> rejoicing. Sign Brian Hunter, cause mass suicide. Trade Brian Hunter to
> Cincinatti, season tickets double.
I think both Goodwin and Hunter are abysmal players, of course, but I
think in this case, there was at least some reasoning. With Coors Field,
everything goes out the window, and there's pretty good reason to believe
that centerfield in Coors may very well be the most valuable defensive
position in baseball.
The plan seemed to get really good defense in center and a bunch of
underrated useful players like Cirillo and Todd Walker to carry the
offense. Didn't work out though as neither Hunter or Goodwin played all
that well defensively and Cirillo provided the first real instance of a
player moving to Coors and then being hurt on the road.
> Give Ben Petrick starting job, than
> decide he's no good. Bring in Brent Mayne, than ship him to KC. Get Todd
> Walker cheap, than sign Todd Walker to a mutli year contract. Than realize
> Todd Walker sucks and trade him to Cincinatti.
Petrick at least seems fueled by Buddy Bell. O'Dowd seems like he's
willing to let the manager get things he wants in order to keep from
ending up with a Duquette/Williams situation.
> If nothing else, it seems he's quick to understand that he made mistakes.
> He just makes a good amount of them.
Any GM that shows a willingness to accept the fact that he's made
mistakes and work with them is a GM that I would want to hire.
Benjamin Ramm
> In article <dZCB7.45899$Zb.22...@news1.sttln1.wa.home.com>,
> seabu...@nospamhome.com says...
> >
> > "Dan Szymborski" <d...@baseballprimer.com> wrote in message
> >
> > > While it's a happy result for the Mariners, why would Dan O'Dowd do this?
> >
> > He seems to alternate great move with horrible move.
> > If nothing else, it seems he's quick to understand that he made mistakes.
> > He just makes a good amount of them.
>
> Any GM that shows a willingness to accept the fact that he's made
> mistakes and work with them is a GM that I would want to hire.
Seems you've shifted into talking about the relative merits of O'Dowd as a
GM, not why he might make a particular move.
If he's mistake-prone, then he might make a bad trade even if he generally
has a few good ideas about making a baseball team work.
Ben Ramm