Cuddyer's option
brianj
this off season, I had totally missed the fact that the Twins are in
strange territory with M. Cuddyer this year. The team has an option
for 2011 (that's right, 2011) for $10.5 million. But they have to
exercise that option in the next 5 days, or pay him a $1 million
buyout. But either way, the Twins have him for 2010. I don't know
what the thinking was behind that contract provision.
So what do you do if you are Bill Smith? I think Cuddyer made about
$7.7 million this year. He will be 31 when the 2010 season begins. I
wonder if they just offer him $10 million per year for the next three
years (2010-2012), or maybe $8.5 to 9 million for 4. Maybe making
$10 million is a big deal. Maybe it seems way more cool than $9.5
milion. Is that too much for Cuddyer? It seems like a lot, but I
don't know how they would have replaced his production this year for
much less than that.
brianj
powrwrap
> In all the recent discussions about free agents and plugging holes
> this off season, I had totally missed the fact that the Twins are in
> strange territory with M. Cuddyer this year. The team has an option
> for 2011 (that's right, 2011) for $10.5 million. But they have to
> exercise that option in the next 5 days, or pay him a $1 million
> buyout. But either way, the Twins have him for 2010. I don't know
> what the thinking was behind that contract provision.
I believe the Twins were asking Cuddyer to prove that he can string a
couple of good years together, and if he could he would be rewarded
with the Twins picking up his option for 2011. Problem with that
strategy is that Cuddyer was injured most of 2008, so they don't know
if 2009 was a fluke or not.
Cuddyer made $6.75M this year and is set for $8.5M next year. If the
Twins pick up the option now, they pay him $8.5M in 2010, and $10.5M
in 2011. That's $19M total. If he has a lousy season in 2010, the
Twins got a raw deal. (Unless Cuddyer has a monster year in 2011)
If the Twins decline the option, they pay him $9.5M in 2010 and he's a
free agent for 2011. If Cuddyer has a lousy 2010 season, the Twins
could get him for less than $10.5M in 2011, if they wanted him and if
he decides to stay. Is he going to be a desirable free agent if he
hits close to his career averages? (.270/.344/.457, with 21 HR a year)
<===HR avg. inflated by 2009 numbers
> So what do you do if you are Bill Smith?
I've never been that high on Cuddyer. I was surprised by his
production this year. It must be nice hitting behind Mauer and/or
Morneau. If I were Smith, I'd decline his option, pay him his bonus
and make him prove he really is a 30 HR a year guy. If he reverts to
his typical 15 HR year then you've made a wise decision. If he clubs
30 HR again, then you've got a problem. You're a GM that didn't
believe in a player who is coming off a very good year and is a free
agent.
Maybe you see how he's doing in 2010. If he's on a good pace you offer
a contract extension during the season.
Here is what I'm hoping Bill Smith is NOT thinking:
Carlos Gomez will improve and become a really, really good player.
He'll be the CF for the Twins for years to come. Delmon Young will
improve and become a really, really good player. He'll be the LF for
years to come. (That Santana trade and that Garza trade will pay off
because I'm a genius!) I can but Dernard Span in RF. Kubel's the DH
so this will make Cuddyer expendable so I don't have to pick up his
option.
brianj
>
> Here is what I'm hoping Bill Smith is NOT thinking:
> Carlos Gomez will improve and become a really, really good player.
> He'll be the CF for the Twins for years to come. Delmon Young will
> improve and become a really, really good player. He'll be the LF for
> years to come. (That Santana trade and that Garza trade will pay off
> because I'm a genius!) I can but Dernard Span in RF. Kubel's the DH
> so this will make Cuddyer expendable so I don't have to pick up his
> option.
This is a nightmare scenario. Nightmare. Maybe time will prove me
wrong about Gomez, but I don't think he has what it takes to be what
the Twins hoped he would be. Young? I am still not giving up hope.
Mr. Smith has had his troubles, but I have to say that I think he did
a good job mid- to late-season in acquiring what the Twins needed to
make a push. This organization is not famous for doing that, and in
the days of Terrry Ryan, when the Twins went shopping for veteran
players, the results were often disastrous.
I like Cuddyer more than you (do). Maybe 2009 was a fluke, but I
think it is more likely that 2008 was. Maybe he's like Punto--just
really erratic, year-to-year. In any event, it is a hard decision.
GMs don't have an easy job.
brianj
powrwrap
Looks like the K-K Gomez trade for J.J. Hardy means the Twins will
exercise their option on Cuddyer.
brianj
>
> - Show quoted text -
I would guess it also tells O.Cabrera that he will be looking for
another team, no? Either that or Nick Punto is the odd man out and
so, a utility guy again.
brianj
powrwrap
>
> I would guess it also tells O.Cabrera that he will be looking for
> another team, no? Either that or Nick Punto is the odd man out and
> so, a utility guy again.
I believe your assessment is correct. Just an all around good day for
Twins maneuvers as far as I'm concerned.
The Twins need a 2nd base man. There are some out there: Polanco,
Orlando Hudson, Ronnie Belliard.