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Michael Sacks
Dec 14, 2022, 1:25:06 PM12/14/22
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Turner, Bogaerts, and Correa are signed to obscene contracts, and I have to imagine that Swanson will be signed to one too soon. Should the Cubs step up to the crazy free agent market to get a legitimate superstar at a premium position.
Almost everyone I hear on talk radio and online media says yes.
I say no.
I think the AAV for these players are not unreasonable, but these are contracts designed to be loser contracts for the second half of them. If you have a club that's hesitant to be consistently above the competitive balance tax line like the Cubs, but a team that's willing to cross-over for a 1-3 year All-In time whenever, that type of contract can be killer.
Also, Swanson has been in the majors for 7 years. Last year was his first All-Star Game and first year over 3.0 WAR. An average starter is usually around 2.0 WAR. Swanson could be next Jayson Heyward ... a guy with plus defense who comes onto the free agent market finally seeming to hit their stride at the plate, and about to get an 8+ year contract.
Pass.
I wouldn't have thought this 24 hours ago, but the Correa signing seems to clinch that this year's free agent market is crazy. These same exact teams will NOT be paying out this money in 2023, 2024, and the foreseeable future. I've yet to see a team willing to spend more than 3 years over the tax threshhold, and don't expect that to change. Not even Steve Cohen.
So, if these teams are going all-in now, it's Hoyer's responsibility to build for a up-and-coming, making the playoffs team in 2023, and be ready to spend on a free agent market that won't be as crazy in 2024 and beyond. The Taillon signing is exactly the right type of deal.
So what do we do at shortstop?
Answer: trade for a stop-gap and/or a young guy who might develop into an average starter.
Who's out there? The Cubs could get Brandon Crawford today for just a scrub minor leaguer if they'll take his salary. One year, and he's a free agent.
The Cubs could get any number of young guys from the Orioles for as good of a trade price as you'll ever get. They have way too many shortstops, and probably want to give the job to Gunnar Henderson as soon as possible. Make them a reasonable offer, and they'll take it.
And there's rumors that the Guardians will trade Amed Rosario if the Cubs want to go all-in on the trade market. Not the call I'd make (he's a free agent after 2023), but a great player.
Almost everyone I hear on talk radio and online media says yes.
I say no.
I think the AAV for these players are not unreasonable, but these are contracts designed to be loser contracts for the second half of them. If you have a club that's hesitant to be consistently above the competitive balance tax line like the Cubs, but a team that's willing to cross-over for a 1-3 year All-In time whenever, that type of contract can be killer.
Also, Swanson has been in the majors for 7 years. Last year was his first All-Star Game and first year over 3.0 WAR. An average starter is usually around 2.0 WAR. Swanson could be next Jayson Heyward ... a guy with plus defense who comes onto the free agent market finally seeming to hit their stride at the plate, and about to get an 8+ year contract.
Pass.
I wouldn't have thought this 24 hours ago, but the Correa signing seems to clinch that this year's free agent market is crazy. These same exact teams will NOT be paying out this money in 2023, 2024, and the foreseeable future. I've yet to see a team willing to spend more than 3 years over the tax threshhold, and don't expect that to change. Not even Steve Cohen.
So, if these teams are going all-in now, it's Hoyer's responsibility to build for a up-and-coming, making the playoffs team in 2023, and be ready to spend on a free agent market that won't be as crazy in 2024 and beyond. The Taillon signing is exactly the right type of deal.
So what do we do at shortstop?
Answer: trade for a stop-gap and/or a young guy who might develop into an average starter.
Who's out there? The Cubs could get Brandon Crawford today for just a scrub minor leaguer if they'll take his salary. One year, and he's a free agent.
The Cubs could get any number of young guys from the Orioles for as good of a trade price as you'll ever get. They have way too many shortstops, and probably want to give the job to Gunnar Henderson as soon as possible. Make them a reasonable offer, and they'll take it.
And there's rumors that the Guardians will trade Amed Rosario if the Cubs want to go all-in on the trade market. Not the call I'd make (he's a free agent after 2023), but a great player.
Band Beyond Youall
Dec 14, 2022, 5:21:18 PM12/14/22
to
Michael Sacks <msac...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Turner, Bogaerts, and Correa are signed to obscene contracts, and I have
> to imagine that Swanson will be signed to one too soon. Should the Cubs
> step up to the crazy free agent market to get a legitimate superstar at a premium position.
>
> Almost everyone I hear on talk radio and online media says yes.
>
> I say no.
>
>
Long for the days of Javy Baez…sigh…
> Turner, Bogaerts, and Correa are signed to obscene contracts, and I have
> to imagine that Swanson will be signed to one too soon. Should the Cubs
> step up to the crazy free agent market to get a legitimate superstar at a premium position.
>
> Almost everyone I hear on talk radio and online media says yes.
>
> I say no.
>
>
Frank Sereno
Dec 16, 2022, 1:49:48 PM12/16/22
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>
the 2018 version of Javy, for sure.
I don't really care how crazy the contracts are. The Ricketts need to show me that they are serious about winning. I haven't really cared about the Cubs the last couple years.
Band Beyond Youall
Dec 18, 2022, 7:05:59 AM12/18/22
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Michael Sacks
May 9, 2023, 10:42:44 AM5/9/23
to
Turner signed for $300M.
Bogaerts signed for $280M.
Correa originally signed for $350M.
Compared to that, while around the same AAV, the 7 years (rather than 11-13 years for the other 3) and the total of $177M is not crazy.
Whether Swanson turns out to be a great choice or a reasonable choice, it certainly wasn't the Cubs having to match the rest of the crazy free agent market.
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