Bismo...what's the Sosa over/under total?
Iampa676
BUT I just cannot imagine him hitting less than 40 HR's in Camden Yard, and in
the middle of that line-up...so I'll go with an even four-oh as my
midline...anything less would be surprising and disappointing...50 or so isn't
out of the question either! "Pa"
Lee Harris
"Iampa676" <iamp...@cs.com> wrote in message
news:20050129183537...@mb-m26.news.cs.com...
May I be the first to predict that of those 40, at least 30 will come in
games against the Red Sox.
HJ
Infidel!!!
--
HJ -- I am who I am, no apologies offered or asked.
"Why don't we just ask Osama Bin Laden, er Osama Obama...OBAMA! Since he
won by such a big amount!"
-- Ted Kennedy, sputtering through an answer of the question, "What did
Barack Obama, who was elected
with over 80% of the vote, do that Kerry and other Dems did NOT do?"
http://thinksink.blogspot.com/
yastrzemski // at // insightbb // dot // com
Dave Bismo
I'm projecting him at 37, so I basically agree with you. Doubt he'll
go back to the 50 level, but I'd be surprised if he went into total
freefall mode. I'd say somewhere in the 30s, maybe 40, is a safe bet.
-Bismo.
Teddy Zartler
"Dave Bismo" <bi...@ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
news:41fd792...@news.east.earthlink.net...
(wild ass guess to support your gut feel?)
Teddy
Dave Bismo
Eric and I both have actual systems.
-Bismo.
Teddy Zartler
have one too, but don't share it.
Teddy
Dave Bismo
<teddyz...@JETERSSUCKScomcast.net> wrote:
Same deal as yours--homegrown.
-Bismo.
Lyfo...@aol.com
>
> >Sure he's on the decline, and the lack of roids is probably hurting some
too,
> >BUT I just cannot imagine him hitting less than 40 HR's in Camden Yard,
He hit 35 last year in Wrigley, a better home-run park than Oriole Park.
Imagine harder...
> > and in the middle of that line-up.
that was 6th in the AL in runs scored and 9th in HR. Fearsome.
Not that anyone elses performance is going to hit homeruns for Sosa...
> >.so I'll go with an even four-oh as my
> >midline...anything less would be surprising and disappointing..
40 is the most he's hit in either of his post age-33 seasons, he'll be 36
this year, moving to a tougher park, in a league with pitchers he doesn't
know, no games in Colorado or Houston, and you think that's a reasonable
"midline"?
> >50 or so isn't
> >out of the question either!
Out of the question? No, Brady Anderson did it once, too. Extremely,
fabulously, extraordinarily unlikely? You betcha...
> > "Pa"
>
(Yes, Dave Bismo, I know that stuff wasn't yours, but it was here, and I
felt like addressing it. Now [evil chuckle] it's YOUR turn!)
;-)
> I'm projecting him at 37, so I basically agree with you. Doubt he'll
> go back to the 50 level, but I'd be surprised if he went into total
> freefall mode.
Year Ag HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2001 32 64 0.328 0.437 0.737 1.174 201
2002 33 49 0.288 0.399 0.594 0.993 160
2003 34 40 0.279 0.358 0.553 0.911 135
2004 35 35 0.253 0.332 0.517 0.849 110
Maybe "controlled descent" is more appropriate than "total freefall", but
his AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ and HR have all dropped for 3 straight years.
And, in a perfect negative correlation, his age has also risen in each of
those years. I see nothing to lead me to expect a good year from Sosa,
never mind a great one.
One of the things to keep in mind with Sosa is that, as much as he's been
held up as the exception to the "can't teach an old dog plate discipline"
school of thought, the seasons with big walk totals have come with lots of
intentional walks. And who knows how many "un-intentional intentional"
walks. His plate discipline, while better than it was early in his career,
is still not great. When pitchers aren't scared of him, when they don't
intentionally throw pitches he won't swing at, he doesn't walk. I wouldn't
be shocked if he hit 40 home-runs, but if you set the over/under at 35, I'll
take the under. And 40+ would surprise me more than 30-.
> I'd say somewhere in the 30s, maybe 40, is a safe bet.
I wouldn't. Not a safe bet. A possible bet, yes. 30+ is probably likely,
but by no means a sure thing...
It is my perception (and I've never done an exhaustive study on it, so I
won't swear that it's true) that "approach" hitters age better than
"reaction" hitters. I think Sosa's a reaction hitter, a hitter who's great
success has come as a result of exceptional physical gifts, like an Ernie
Banks, a Jim Rice, an Andre Dawson, a Nomar Garciaparra. The former three
did not age well, and frankly, I'm not optimistic about Nomar's career path,
either.
I think that it was an awful pick-up for the Orioles. I think Sosa's going
to be mediocre at best, while costing them players/prospects that might have
been used to help the team somehow. I think they finish, best-case, 15-20
games out of 2nd place in the East (with him or without him), and he sells
not enough marginal tickets to cover his salary. I just don't see any
likely upside for Baltimore as a result of this deal.
HJ
*SHOCKING* news. Age increases as the years advance.
BRILLIANT!!!
[clink]
BRILLIANT!!!
Todd
Lyford...while I agree with most of your analysis the one thing that you
have not considered is that he pulled his back sneezing last year.
Without that injury he surely would have hit a few more bombs. Thus
Bismo's prediction of 37 has a good shot at being true if he stays healthy
The rest you said...tougher park and against pitching he hasnt seen so
much will put a damper on the numbers. I do disagree with you about his
salary though. He's costing the Orioles 7 Million dollars this year.
Being in the AL allows him to DH at times, and plus they dealt
Hairston's salary in the deal. So they added under 7 million dollars
for ONE year of Sammy's services. Sammy's presence could have a real
positive impact on the Orioles ticket sales, and while they will still
undoubtably finish miles behind the Sox and Yanks at least their fans
have something to look forward to.
--
T$
GTanner
Iampa676 wrote:
> Sure he's on the decline, and the lack of roids is probably hurting some too,
> BUT I just cannot imagine him hitting less than 40 HR's in Camden Yard,
Wrigley's park factor for HR's was 1.329 last year; OP@CY's was 1.050.
GT