What would you do with this team?
Colin William
league in runs/game, and trending worse. The pitching is pretty good -
sixth in the league. And then there are the standings - five games below
.500, five games out.
I tend to go with sam's continuing assertion, that the team needs to
treat this as the middle rebuilding year. At the same time, there are
holes that need to be filled. Can they be filled in-season, or must we
wait until the offseason?
Moreover, it seems to me like we don't even need that much, given that
our outfield is so very bad. I mean, this is an outfield that would be
improved if we could somehow rustle up three guys who would be fourth
outfielders on any other team, Gerald Williams/Curtis Pride types. How
much has to be given up in trade to rustle up three 720 OPS guys?
I'm pretty oblivious these days regarding who's available for trade. So,
I'm mostly curious as to whether anyone has any ideas? As I see it,
we're set in the pitching rotation. We could probably use one more
decent middle/long relief arm, but it's not a hugely pressing need. What
we need is offense at offensive positions - all three OF spots plus 1B.
2B is fine as long as we can play Prado there. I wouldn't be surprised
if the team might be shopping Escobar for a package of a slightly lesser
SS plus a mediocre OF; they really seem very sour on him right now.
All of these are needs for next year too, and we certainly don't want to
give up top prospects, so I wouldn't suggest trading for the kind of
player that costs huge talent. But, is there any simple mediocrity out
there that could improve our situation of abject misery for a relatively
low price?
Colin
Dale Hicks
colint...@hotmail.com says...
>
> I'm pretty oblivious these days regarding who's available for trade. So,
> I'm mostly curious as to whether anyone has any ideas?
> All of these are needs for next year too, and we certainly don't want to
> give up top prospects, so I wouldn't suggest trading for the kind of
> player that costs huge talent. But, is there any simple mediocrity out
> there that could improve our situation of abject misery for a relatively
> low price?
All of the following is just looking at possibilities, not anything
where I've heard any rumors (save Atkins, of course).
I have no idea what Colorado considers a fair price, but they're so
loaded with players that they're not rightly sure what to do with
them. At IF, they have Atkins likely available, as
Stewart/Tulo/Barmes/Helton make a good infield. The only thing
stopping that trade is the streakiness of Stewart. At OF, they're
trying to play Fowler, Smith, Spilborghs, CarGo, and Hawpe in the
three spots, with Murton blocked in the minors. They're contending,
so it would take MLB ready pitching to get someone, I think.
The Cubs also come to mind, because they've got Lee blocking
Hoffpauir and Fox, who apparently are only not ugly at first.
I've mentioned before the KC logjam at first, with Kila Ka'aihue and
others possibly being available if they continue to think that Butler
and Jacobs to be their 1B/DH options of the future.
If we want to waste our time, I'm guessing the O's will sell Pie for
just about anything, just to get Reimold more full time.
Smoak is also blocked in Texas, but everyone keeps speculating that
they may move someone to third to relieve Chris K. Davis, opening up
a 1B/DH spot.
Yankees have Gardner as a fill-in, but I think he'll stay there
simply because of the fragileness of Melky and Damon.
--
Cranial Crusader dgh 1138 at bell south point net
Tomasz Radko
> This offense sucks, that much is clear. Fourth from the bottom in the
> league in runs/game, and trending worse. The pitching is pretty good -
> sixth in the league. And then there are the standings - five games below
> .500, five games out.
Nothing. I'm with Sam, we're rebuilding, not contending this season.
(...)
> 2B is fine as long as we can play Prado there. I wouldn't be surprised
> if the team might be shopping Escobar for a package of a slightly lesser
> SS plus a mediocre OF; they really seem very sour on him right now.
I wouldn't do it. I would trade Escobar for a "final solution" at OF,
but not for a package that would only help us now. Think in next season
term. And don't sell low. Let's try to increase Escobar's value. At this
moment everybody knows, he's in a doghouse.
While we are at selling low, selling Lowe might be a good idea. Next
season we will have Hudson. Hudson, Jurjens, Vasquez, Kawakami, Hanson -
this rotation looks real good. Add Lowe and we have overkill. Selling
him after the break IF there is a right offer - looks good to me. It'd
free money and hopefully improve positions where we aren't so strong. I
don't know if such a deal could be made.
pzdr
TRad
Colin William
>> 2B is fine as long as we can play Prado there. I wouldn't be surprised
>> if the team might be shopping Escobar for a package of a slightly
>> lesser SS plus a mediocre OF; they really seem very sour on him right
>> now.
>
> I wouldn't do it. I would trade Escobar for a "final solution" at OF,
> but not for a package that would only help us now. Think in next season
> term. And don't sell low. Let's try to increase Escobar's value. At this
> moment everybody knows, he's in a doghouse.
Well, I wouldn't trade Escobar at all, I'm just trying to read the
team's inclinations here. They tried to trade him this offseason, and if
anything his stock with the team has decreased this season. With no
viable SS option in-house, I'd stick with him, but one gets the feeling
they might want to be rid of him.
> While we are at selling low, selling Lowe might be a good idea. Next
> season we will have Hudson. Hudson, Jurjens, Vasquez, Kawakami, Hanson -
> this rotation looks real good. Add Lowe and we have overkill. Selling
> him after the break IF there is a right offer - looks good to me. It'd
> free money and hopefully improve positions where we aren't so strong. I
> don't know if such a deal could be made.
I can't see Wren selling Lowe. Lowe was the one acquisition he made this
offseason that didn't get snagged right out from under him.
Colin
Sam Hutcheson
> This offense sucks, that much is clear. Fourth from the bottom in the
> league in runs/game, and trending worse. The pitching is pretty good -
> sixth in the league. And then there are the standings - five games below
> .500, five games out.
>
> I tend to go with sam's continuing assertion, that the team needs to
> treat this as the middle rebuilding year. At the same time, there are
> holes that need to be filled. Can they be filled in-season, or must we
> wait until the offseason?
If something becomes available in-season they should make the move,
provided that the move helps in the short and long term. They should
not in any case make a prospects for rental Teixeira type deal. If
another McLouth sort of deal comes up, one where they can improve now
and maintain the rebuild, they should take advantage of that, but
otherwise the window for competition should be 2010-15.
All things considered, this team has had exactly two things go
unexpectedly bad. First, Jordan Schafer couldn't maintain his spring/
first month production and had to be sent down. Second, Kelly Johnson
cratered. I know it seems like more, but from an expectations
standpoint those are the primary problems. You could add Kotchman's
struggles to the list if you're being kind to him, but he's never
struck me as much more than a slightly better Rico Brogna so I don't.
No one, including Frank Wren, should be the least bit shocked that
Francoeur still sucks. No one should be the least bit surprised that
Garret Anderson is old and can't play defense. On other hand, Martin
Prado, Omar Infante and David Ross have all been pleasant surprises so
far.
I think Wren is smartly still playing the long game, while trying to
take advantage of a weak division this year too. His big move so far
has been the McLouth deal. That obviously filled a major hole in the
2009 lineup but it also gave the team an above average OF through
2012. Now, when discussing the Braves long term you add him to the
mix as well, which means without a major deal or FA signing you can
expect to see McLouth/Schafer/Heyward by 2011 at the latest.
I fully expect that this is the last year of Jeff Francoeur's reign of
terror in Atlanta. He'll be traded or released prior to next spring
if not before. You have to bridge the gap to Heyward - probably 2011
as an impact player - so you need a FA or another OF by trade. The
Braves could decline Hudson's option or trade Javy Vasquez to make
payroll room for a major OF acquisition (Jason Bay is still not signed
in Boston, Matt Holliday isn't going to re-sign with Oakland.) More
likely they could take Francoeur's 4m, add in Anderson's 4m and make a
play for Mark DeRosa. A three year deal for DeRosa would give them
the option of moving Chipper to 1B if needed, once Heyward demands a
slot in the OF. Or DeRosa could play 1B.
If I were Wren I'd be on the phone with Cleveland every day. They're
going to want to move DeRo before the end of the year. Something less
than prospecty - Jo-Jo Reyes and Francoeur perhaps - could get that
done. But what I'd be banging for is to upgrade Reyes to Kris Medlen
(odd man out in the rotation as configured and not as untouchable as
Hanson) in return for Shin-Soo Choo. The Indians are stacked
offensively and suck for pitching.
Whatever they do, they should avoid the temptation to trade Medlen or
Schafer for something stopgap. This is not the year to be planning
for.
s/
Sam Hutcheson
> If I were Wren I'd be on the phone with Cleveland every day. They're
> going to want to move DeRo before the end of the year. Something less
> than prospecty - Jo-Jo Reyes and Francoeur perhaps - could get that
And DeRosa goes to the Cardinals for a reliever and PTBNL. The Braves
could have beat that.
s/
Unclaimed Mysteries
-cls
--
It Came From Corry Lee Smith's Unclaimed Mysteries.
http://www.unclaimedmysteries.net
Unclaimed Mysteries
> Trade for Andy Messersmith, Pat Rockett, Dan K*lb.
>
> -cls
>
And always remember that it's NEVER Frank Wren's fault.
Lookout
<theletter_k_and...@unclaimedmysteries.net> wrote:
>Trade for Andy Messersmith, Pat Rockett, Dan K*lb.
>
>-cls
Bring back Bob Horner
Colin William
them outside every day for six hours a day practicing baseball.
This was the first full Braves game I've watched in a long time, and
while it was fun watching Hanson, it was also painful. I cannot fathom
how Garrett Anderson could not get a triple out of his ball hit to the
wall, while Jason Varitek was able to get to second on a ball off
Johnson's glove with an assist by a loafing Francoeur. Francoeur also
managed a bonehead baserunning play between second and third - how does
this guy not get his ass pulled mid-game for those two mistakes? Kelly
Johnson looked awful, and that rundown in the ninth was just brutally
executed. The pitchers had to get way more than the required 27 outs.
Throw in an error by Chipper and some ugly, ugly swings and it's hard to
believe they actually won. I can't believe O'Flaherty didn't punch
someone out as he left the game, and I don't recall ever seeing Bobby
spending so much time shaking his head in disgust.
Overall, this was as fundamentally poor a game as I've ever seen.
Colin
Dale Hicks
colint...@hotmail.com says...
Good thing you didn't watch the Arizona game today, then. It was
uglier.
They definitely need to practice rundowns, it seems. I don't know
why Kotchman threw the ball to second as soon as he caught it,
without at least starting to chase the (slow) runner. Part of the
strategy of rundowns is narrowing the distance between the fielders
and the runner -- you can't just toss it back and forth from 1st to
2nd all day.
Colin William
> Good thing you didn't watch the Arizona game today, then. It was
> uglier.
>
> They definitely need to practice rundowns, it seems. I don't know
> why Kotchman threw the ball to second as soon as he caught it,
> without at least starting to chase the (slow) runner. Part of the
> strategy of rundowns is narrowing the distance between the fielders
> and the runner -- you can't just toss it back and forth from 1st to
> 2nd all day.
I really, really hope Bobby took the team into the clubhouse after the
game and re-enacted this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLMl0CLIDLg
Colin
Marty Winn
> In article <7aqmlrF20o0r...@mid.individual.net>,
> colintwill...@hotmail.com says...
>
<snip>
> They definitely need to practice rundowns, it seems. I don't know
> why Kotchman threw the ball to second as soon as he caught it,
> without at least starting to chase the (slow) runner. Part of the
> strategy of rundowns is narrowing the distance between the fielders
> and the runner -- you can't just toss it back and forth from 1st to
> 2nd all day.
>
> --
> Cranial Crusader dgh 1138 at bell south point net
I did not see the play in question so I may be off the mark here.
Rundown theory has a few principles that I will try to list in order:
1) make the out
2) run him back towards the lesser base so that if he is safe he has
not advanced
3) use as few throws as possible to lesson the chance of error or
interference.
This gets altered when there are baserunners at other bases.
So with Kotchman involved I assume he was running a guy towards 2B.
Principle #2 rules here, when you get him far enough away from 1B so
that he will not be able to make it back safely if you throw to 2B and
you are not sure you can catch him yourself he needed to get that ball
down to 2B (probably the SS covering), then usually the SS will run as
hard as he can until the runner commits to getting back to 1B, make
the toss and the 1B (or whoever is now covering 1B applies the tag).
That is how it should be done.
Shining the Light,
Marty Winn
Ben B
> I did not see the play in question so I may be off the mark here.
> Rundown theory has a few principles that I will try to list in order:
>
> 1) make the out
> 2) run him back towards the lesser base so that if he is safe he has
> not advanced
> 3) use as few throws as possible to lesson the chance of error or
> interference.
>
> This gets altered when there are baserunners at other bases.
>
> So with Kotchman involved I assume he was running a guy towards 2B.
> Principle #2 rules here, when you get him far enough away from 1B so
> that he will not be able to make it back safely if you throw to 2B and
> you are not sure you can catch him yourself he needed to get that ball
> down to 2B (probably the SS covering), then usually the SS will run as
> hard as he can until the runner commits to getting back to 1B, make
> the toss and the 1B (or whoever is now covering 1B applies the tag).
> That is how it should be done.
i had the bad fortune of watching it. they made at least two mistakes,
maybe more. first, there never should have been a run-down. KJ had
plenty of time for a throw to 2b and a relay throw to 1b. should have
been a routine GIDP.
the second mistake was an errant throw: while youkalis was diving for
1b, the throw went high, and there was no way to apply the tag.
--
Ben
Sam Hutcheson
> On Jun 29, 10:58 am, Marty Winn <marty.w...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > I did not see the play in question so I may be off the mark here.
> > Rundown theory has a few principles that I will try to list in order:
>
> > 1) make the out
> > 2) run him back towards the lesser base so that if he is safe he has
> > not advanced
> > 3) use as few throws as possible to lesson the chance of error or
> > interference.
>
> > This gets altered when there are baserunners at other bases.
>
> > So with Kotchman involved I assume he was running a guy towards 2B.
> > Principle #2 rules here, when you get him far enough away from 1B so
> > that he will not be able to make it back safely if you throw to 2B and
> > you are not sure you can catch him yourself he needed to get that ball
> > down to 2B (probably the SS covering), then usually the SS will run as
> > hard as he can until the runner commits to getting back to 1B, make
> > the toss and the 1B (or whoever is now covering 1B applies the tag).
> > That is how it should be done.
>
> i had the bad fortune of watching it. they made at least two mistakes,
> maybe more. first, there never should have been a run-down. KJ had
> plenty of time for a throw to 2b and a relay throw to 1b. should have
> been a routine GIDP.
Disagree. Johnson was charging a slow roller that he fielded in the
base path. He could have attempted the 6-4-3,and nine times out of
ten it probably executes perfectly. But to do that he would have had
to stop his forward momentum, pivot 270 degrees (as a right handed
thrower there's no way he pivots clockwise on the play), pick up
Hernandez coming across the bag at second and deliver the throw with
something on it (even with Ortiz running that sort of double play
would be slow developing at best.) Johnson probably makes that play
90% of the time, but the 10% of the time he misses the ball sails into
CF, Youkilis takes third and Ortiz has a reasonable shot at 2B,
putting the tying run in scoring position.
KJ took the safe play. He froze the runner and took the sure out at
1B, trusting his teammates to execute a routine run-down. That the
team failed to execute the run-down is not Johnson's fault.
> the second mistake was an errant throw: while youkalis was diving for
> 1b, the throw went high, and there was no way to apply the tag.
That was the fourth mistake (if you're counting KJ's decision to not
go to 2B with the first throw.) After Johnson flipped to first to
force Ortiz Kotchman made two mistakes. First, he immediately fired
back to 2B without running Youkilis down at all. Yes, you always run
the runner back toward the lower base, but Youk was maybe a third of
the way down the path from first. Kotchman should have jogged him at
least halfway to 2B before throwing to Hernandez. He compounded that
mistake by not getting out of the basepath after he had made the
throw. He has to peel off into the diamond there in order to clear
the lane for Hernandez to throw back to Johnson covering 1B. He
didn't, and between Youk and Kotchman, the shortstop had nowhere to
throw the ball. So he sailed it over Kotchman's head, which required
Johnson to catch it high, allowing Youkilis (who was two steps closer
to first than he should have been if Kotchman had jogged him back a
little) to dive back in under the throw.
That clusterfuck of a play is all on Kotchman, IMHO.
s/
Colin William
> All things considered, this team has had exactly two things go
> unexpectedly bad. First, Jordan Schafer couldn't maintain his spring/
> first month production and had to be sent down. Second, Kelly Johnson
> cratered. I know it seems like more, but from an expectations
> standpoint those are the primary problems. You could add Kotchman's
> struggles to the list if you're being kind to him, but he's never
> struck me as much more than a slightly better Rico Brogna so I don't.
The potentially greater unexpected problem might be defense. I'm only
speaking second-hand and anecdotally here, so that's why I qualify it as
"potentially". Escobar has had his costly brain farts, Chipper's
struggling defensively. Nobody has anything good to say about our
defense in LF and RF. I don't know how KJ has done overall, but it can't
be as bad as yesterday. The result is that the Braves are averaging one
unearned run every two games, vs. a league average a little less than
one every three games.
Kotchman's complete absence of power is, I think unexpectedly bad, but
not necessarily all that huge in magnitude. He has only 4 HR in 106
games since he came to the Braves, vs. 12 in the 100 games he played for
the Angels last season. In combination with the struggles of others, it
leads me to wonder if Turner Field is playing tougher for power hitters
for some reason this season (weather
And then there's just random stuff. Having Chipper go into a deep slump
is going to hurt this team at any time, but having it happen right when
they have Escobar benched for suicide is near fatal.
Colin
Sam Hutcheson
> Sam Hutcheson wrote:
> > All things considered, this team has had exactly two things go
> > unexpectedly bad. First, Jordan Schafer couldn't maintain his spring/
> > first month production and had to be sent down. Second, Kelly Johnson
> > cratered. I know it seems like more, but from an expectations
> > standpoint those are the primary problems. You could add Kotchman's
> > struggles to the list if you're being kind to him, but he's never
> > struck me as much more than a slightly better Rico Brogna so I don't.
>
> The potentially greater unexpected problem might be defense. I'm only
> speaking second-hand and anecdotally here, so that's why I qualify it as
> "potentially". Escobar has had his costly brain farts, Chipper's
> struggling defensively. Nobody has anything good to say about our
> defense in LF and RF. I don't know how KJ has done overall, but it can't
> be as bad as yesterday. The result is that the Braves are averaging one
> unearned run every two games, vs. a league average a little less than
> one every three games.
The defense has been very bad all around. 2/4 of the infield has been
universally bad (2B, 3B) and another 1/4 has been brain dead (SS.) 1B
hasn't been bad, per se, but it hasn't been the superb play we saw
from Teixeira and were told Kotchman brought to the field.
LF has been horrifi-fucking-liculous. Garret Anderson is the worst
defender I've ever seen, including Ryan Klesko's first season. CF has
been stable and RF has been okay. McCann and Ross have been excellent
behind the plate.
> Kotchman's complete absence of power is, I think unexpectedly bad, but
> not necessarily all that huge in magnitude. He has only 4 HR in 106
> games since he came to the Braves, vs. 12 in the 100 games he played for
> the Angels last season. In combination with the struggles of others, it
> leads me to wonder if Turner Field is playing tougher for power hitters
> for some reason this season (weather
In general I doubt Turner's playing notably tougher on hitters. But
for Kotchman specifically?
Angel Stadium:
Center Field - 400 ft
Right-Center - 370 ft
Right-Center (shallow) - 365 ft
Right Field - 330 ft
Turner Field:
Center Field - 401 ft
Right-Center - 390 ft
Right Field - 330 ft
Note the 20-25 foot difference in the RF power alley. Kotchman is not
a guy that hits HR's to the opposite field like Chipper. He's a 15-20
HR threat in Anaheim. He's a long fly ball out or a double in
Atlanta.
s/
Colin William
> The defense has been very bad all around. 2/4 of the infield has been
> universally bad (2B, 3B) and another 1/4 has been brain dead (SS.) 1B
> hasn't been bad, per se, but it hasn't been the superb play we saw
> from Teixeira and were told Kotchman brought to the field.
> LF has been horrifi-fucking-liculous. Garret Anderson is the worst
> defender I've ever seen, including Ryan Klesko's first season. CF has
> been stable and RF has been okay. McCann and Ross have been excellent
> behind the plate.
I think that has to be considered an all-around surprise. I'd expected
this team to be about average defensively, but it looks like the defense
is costing about one extra unearned run every five games (and that's not
including additional earned runs). That's the kind of difference that
hurts when your offense sucks.
> Note the 20-25 foot difference in the RF power alley. Kotchman is not
> a guy that hits HR's to the opposite field like Chipper. He's a 15-20
> HR threat in Anaheim. He's a long fly ball out or a double in
> Atlanta.
Thanks, for some reason I thought the two parks were pretty comparable
overall, but that has to make a difference for a guy like him.
Colin
Jon Richardson
> All of these are needs for next year too, and we certainly don't want to
> give up top prospects, so I wouldn't suggest trading for the kind of
> player that costs huge talent. But, is there any simple mediocrity out
> there that could improve our situation of abject misery for a relatively
> low price?
Woops, meant to reply a little sooner to this one.
Short answer: do nothing. Like Sam repeatedly says, this is not the
year with which the Braves should be concerned.
Casey Kotchman isn't going to be the long-term answer at 1B. I don't
believe he's as bad as he's been this year (hasn't he also taken a
pitch or two off the hand this year?) but the Braves aren't going to
get a young, power-hitting first baseman to fill in the next couple of
years until Freddie Freeman is ready. Prince Fielder is one of only
two I can think of who may be available; the other is Adrian
Gonzalez. Both would more than plug the hole at 1B until Freeman is
ready, but the cost to get either would be huge. Though my answer to
most problems is trade for Adam Dunn and put him at 1B, that just
isn't happening. So the Braves can either suffer through Kotchman and
hope he's playing below his actual levels right now, can overpay for a
short-term fix, or can get somebody likely not significantly better
than Kotchman but would likely be more expensive.
It's more apparent that Kelly Johnson isn't going to be the long-term
answer at 2B. Omar Infante may be. Yunel Escobar may or may not be a
long-term answer at SS. If the Braves wanted to do something truly
radical (which I doubt), trade Escobar+projectable pitcher (I dunno,
say Cole Rohrbrough) to Oakland for the remainder of Matt Holliday's
contract. Put Holliday in RF, benching Francoeur, or trading him for
whatever comes off the dung heap. Let Holliday walk at the end of the
year (collect the extra draft picks) because he's not going to be the
long-term RF, Jason Heyward (also not ready till 2011 at the earliest)
is. Play Prado+Infante as the middle infield for the rest of the
year. Let Garret Anderson walk at the end of the year. Find a 1-year
placeholder for RF, I'm thinking Johnny Damon but suspect he'll be
looking for more than a 1-year deal and his arm doesn't hold up in LF,
let alone RF. Is Rick Ankiel a free agent this winter? He may go one
year. This gives a 2010 roster of:
C: McCann
1B: Kotchman
2B: Infante
SS: Prado
3B: Chipper
OF: Ankiel (liking this more than Damon now that I think about it)
OF: Schafer (whom I suspect will be given every chance to make the
team again)
OF: McLouth
If either of Heyward/Freeman is ready at any point in 2010, consider
plugging them in if the Braves are close. Otherwise keep them down
until they're ready and the Braves are ready. Sign Ankiel to a 2-year
deal just in case Heyward isn't ready or Schafer still has huge holes
in his swing.
This team will be mind-bogglingly bad defensively of course, but it
sets the stage for the Braves return to relevance in 2011, and maybe a
little earlier.
Jon