A System So Simple that Even The Professor could Win a Few Races!
wolfagain
works.
System is for 2nd time starters Only! even claimers
1. ALL 2nd time starters get 1 point
2. 2nd timers getting a jock up grade get 1 point
3. 2nd timers running against easier competition today get 1 point
4. 2nd timers running in a race that fits their breeding get 1 point
if you don't know about breeding...EDUCATE yourself!
5. BET only horses that get 3 points or more
eliminate ALL 2nd timers who take 6 weeks or more off after their 1st
race!
Today's system play is AFLEET JANE PHA 4th gets 3
points....competition is about the same
Steve Klesaris is switching to Shepard his 1st call jock 22% at meet
horse has stamina breeding top and bottom.... today's race is over a
mile ...1st race was 5 1/2F
tya...@gmail.com
Wolfie I have you beat by about 20 years.
Horses run races while trainers watch and riders are passengers
wolfagain
Is it just by chance top trainer Michael Matz is 3% with 1st timers?
Steve Klesaris is 22% with 1st time routers? Most here have seen your
picks, if that's what they are....hard to tell as you often mention
3,4, even 5 horses....are they ALL "picks?" ....what kind of
handicapping is that? With what I've seen of your said "picks" I
honestly doubt that you can pick your nose!
tya...@gmail.com
Texas sharp shooter fallacy
wolfagain
Klesaris finds out today he has a CLAIMER! My advice is drop her down
to 12K and be DONE with her! Race was WON by a future claimer!
"Winner" got the mile in 1:40 or maybe 1 mile and 70 yds....no
difference...Claimer time! Is there a Rendering plant close by?
Ocala Mike
I have my own 2TS system, using pretty much the same criteria as you,
but I also look for 2TS that were bet in their 1TS, and/or encountered
trouble, and/or ran a fast "hidden" quarter (usually the 1st or 2nd
quarter after missing the break). Sometimes cash huge payoffs this
way, but you have to have faith. There is a whole other school of
thought that says to shun 2TS because they now know what they're
getting into after a bad experience in their debut; works both ways, I
guess.
Ocala Mike
wolfagain
My system ASSUMES 1st effort wasn't a real effort. But it's a fact 2nd
timers improve BIG time! IF The WOLF was a trainer !st timers would
RUN BIG 1st Time! Exactly the way I play them! Wolf almost in TEARS
listening to my old drinking buddy Haggard "The Fighting Side of Me"
"....when they run down my country they're walking on the fighting
side of me!"
byrdman
Tom Ainslie used to point to a jockey upgrade as a sign of the trainer's
intentions. so even with your objection, Wolfie's idea has merit!
Mr. G
Reasons why the Prof. can't play this system.....
rule 2...jockeys are just passengers, except for ;-)
rule 3...there is no such thing as class
rule 4...breeding is a crapshoot at best and therefore insignificant
there are no matchups
there is no 2nd call is everything
there is no random randomness (I really like this one)
finally, there is no whatever else I forgot
-- And she'll have Fun, Fun, Fun, till her daddy takes the T-Bird away --
(Beach Boys, circa 1964-65)
Mr. G
Do you also look at a 2TS that goes from MSW to claiming or does your
'hidden' quarter usually encompass this?
Mr. G
> On Nov 16, 11:02锟絘m, "tyat...@gmail.com" <tyat...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Nov 16, 8:36锟絘m, wolfagain <w...@provide.net> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > > Been playing this system for over 25 years, try it out to see how it
> > > works.
> >
> > > System is for 2nd time starters Only! 锟絜ven claimers
> >
> > > 1. ALL 2nd time starters get 1 point
> > > 2. 2nd timers getting a jock up grade get 1 point
> > > 3. 2nd timers running against easier competition today get 1 point
> > > 4. 2nd timers running in a race that fits their breeding get 1 point
> > > if you don't know about breeding...EDUCATE yourself!
> > > 5. BET only horses that get 3 points or more
> >
> > > eliminate ALL 2nd timers who take 6 weeks or more off after their 1st
> > > race!
> >
> > > Today's system play is AFLEET JANE 锟絇HA 4th 锟絞ets 3
> > > points....competition is about the same
> > > Steve Klesaris is switching to Shepard his 1st call jock 22% at meet
> > > horse has stamina breeding top and bottom.... today's race is over a
> > > mile ...1st race was 5 1/2F
> >
> > Wolfie I have you beat by about 20 years.
> >
> > Horses run races while trainers watch and riders are passengers
>
> Is it just by chance top trainer Michael Matz is 3% with 1st timers?
> Steve Klesaris is 22% with 1st time routers? Most here have seen your
> picks, if that's what they are....hard to tell as you often mention
> 3,4, even 5 horses....are they ALL "picks?" ....what kind of
> handicapping is that? With what I've seen of your said "picks" I
> honestly doubt that you can pick your nose!
I don't think it's by chance, I think that's the random chaos theory ;-)
To be fair, the Sartin methodology (or any methodology) can only narrow a
field down to the top 3 or 4 contenders, one of which usually wins (about
70% of the time). Then it's up to the individual to move it to the next
level and decipher the top contenders with all the goodies you read about
from the Prof. In the early days, Sartin advocated dutching your top 2
picks to win. I wonder if they still do.
If his method picked only one horse, it would cease to be a 'methodology'
and would become a 'system'.
Mr. G
wrote:
I guess it's easy to be the best when you're the only jockey and all the
others are just passengers, isn't it? ;-)
Once upon a time, down Panama way....
Mr. G
> On Nov 16, 11:02锟絘m, "tyat...@gmail.com" <tyat...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Nov 16, 8:36锟絘m, wolfagain <w...@provide.net> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > > Been playing this system for over 25 years, try it out to see how it
> > > works.
> >
> > > System is for 2nd time starters Only! 锟絜ven claimers
> >
> > > 1. ALL 2nd time starters get 1 point
> > > 2. 2nd timers getting a jock up grade get 1 point
> > > 3. 2nd timers running against easier competition today get 1 point
> > > 4. 2nd timers running in a race that fits their breeding get 1 point
> > > if you don't know about breeding...EDUCATE yourself!
> > > 5. BET only horses that get 3 points or more
> >
> > > eliminate ALL 2nd timers who take 6 weeks or more off after their 1st
> > > race!
> >
> > > Today's system play is AFLEET JANE 锟絇HA 4th 锟絞ets 3
> > > points....competition is about the same
> > > Steve Klesaris is switching to Shepard his 1st call jock 22% at meet
> > > horse has stamina breeding top and bottom.... today's race is over a
> > > mile ...1st race was 5 1/2F
> >
> > Wolfie I have you beat by about 20 years.
> >
> > Horses run races while trainers watch and riders are passengers
>
> Is it just by chance top trainer Michael Matz is 3% with 1st timers?
> Steve Klesaris is 22% with 1st time routers? Most here have seen your
> picks, if that's what they are....hard to tell as you often mention
> 3,4, even 5 horses....are they ALL "picks?" ....what kind of
> handicapping is that? With what I've seen of your said "picks" I
> honestly doubt that you can pick your nose!
But, do you think he can pick his toes? ;-)
byrdman
hey, Mr. G, that's a lot of posting!
Ocala Mike
>
> - Show quoted text -
Yes, the biggest drop in racing - from MdSpWt to claimer. That's
covered by rule 3 of Wolf's, and I certainly look at that. The
"hidden quarter" refers to what some call the "turn time"; looking for
a horse that might have made a big middle move in its debut.
Ocala Mike
wolfagain
The "hidden quarter" is often revealed by watching race replays. For
me it's those horses that close after going 8 or more wide from the !/
4 post. Also take note of 1st timers that race 2-3 wide the whole
race. Replays tell you a lot more than the comments in the PPs.
Mr. G
>
> hey, Mr. G, that's a lot of posting!
Quite the chatterbox, ain't I?
I'm in a procrastination mode right now, not wanting to work on things I
should.
As the unknown philosopher Confused said; Idle hands make for many posts.
tya...@gmail.com
>
> To be fair, the Sartin methodology (or any methodology) can only narrow a
> field down to the top 3 or 4 contenders, one of which usually wins (about
> 70% of the time). Then it's up to the individual to move it to the next
> level and decipher the top contenders with all the goodies you read about
> from the Prof. In the early days, Sartin advocated dutching your top 2
> picks to win. I wonder if they still do.
> If his method picked only one horse, it would cease to be a 'methodology'
> and would become a 'system'.
It is always funny that those who have no idea of Sartin always shoot
out malarkey like that
Sartin is a tool. The way an individual uses it is up to them
tya...@gmail.com
> On Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:24:28 UTC, byrdman <byrdman2...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> > hey, Mr. G, that's a lot of posting!
>
> Quite the chatterbox, ain't I?
> I'm in a procrastination mode right now, not wanting to work on things I
> should.
> As the unknown philosopher Confused said; Idle hands make for many posts.
One of the best things about racing is that HORSE's have no idea of
the relative abilities on the assembled
group they face it a race since they don't understand the condition
book. ALL the time I see horses of supposed
"lesser; theoretical class, beat those of higher class since they fit
the energy profile and pace advantage of the
sum total of the contenders in the field.
Mr. G
wrote:
How many meetings/seminars did you attend, in the early/mid 80's. Funny, I
don't remember seeing you there.
Be specific. Just which parts are malarkey.
Mr. G
wrote:
And, ALL the time I see horses of supposed "lesser" theoretical class, that
fit the energy profile and pace advantage of the sum total of the
contenders in the field, that cough up their cookies against supposed
"higher" class horses that don't fit the criteria. Which proves nothing.
If you really understood class, you would know that it's not just about the
differences in claiming prices or Stakes to Alw, etc.
Class is probably the most difficult factor to decipher in horse racing,
which is why it is usually ignored, or relegated to the afore mentioned
criteria by most all systems/methodology producers.
Ocala Mike
> On Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:43:05 UTC, "tyat...@gmail.com" <tyat...@gmail.com>
>
> - Show quoted text -
I agree with Mr. G. Horses can't read the condition book, but they
know how to sort themselves out, class-wise. All you have to do is
watch a bunch of them at feeding time in an open pasture (like I have)
to understand this. They are herd animals and quickly adopt a "caste"
system among themselves. I'm sure they do the same thing at the race
track, i.e. Affirmed beating Alydar almost every time they met and
Secretariat causing Sham's meltdown.
Ocala Mike