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al
Apr 18, 2021, 3:30:29 PM4/18/21
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Free Turf Horse Racing Systems
obtained courtesy of the Flatstats website ...
2nd Favourites at Grade 1 Courses
System: Back all 2nd favourites in Selling and Claiming races at Ascot,
Epsom, Goodwood, Kempton, New-
bury, Sandown, York
Date created: 23-Mar-02
Initial Results: 25% strike rate, 17% profit
Why does it work?: Because punters are not used to lowly sellers and
claimers at the very best courses.
They overbet 'he favourite and sometimes create false favourites. The
second favourite is thus underbet and
pushed into profitability.
Bookies have to balance their books and with all the weight of money on
the favourite, the price of the other
horses tend to lengthen. The second favourite is the 'second best' horse
in the race. If his price is higher than
it should be, then in the long run he is valuable to follow.
Beaten Favourites
Back beaten favourites in Novice races.
Horse must be fancied (SP < RUNNERS / 3.33) and not up in class
Date created: 25-Aug-00
Initial Results: 53% strike rate, 29% profit
Why does it work?: All beaten favourites are generally underbet by the
public. Punters see that they were
beaten last time when favourite and assume that he could be beaten again
today.
The reason why Novice races are profitable for this system is not known.
Next Day Runners
Back horses who ran yesterday and are favourite today
Date created: 27-Aug-00
Initial Results: 40% strike rate, 29% profit
Why does it work?: Punters are seriously underbetting this kind of
horse. All next day runners do not make a
profit. But those who are favourite win as often as a regular favourite
but have the added advantage of being
fit and strongly fancied by connections. The odds available for them is
higher than it should be, thus a value
bet can be had.
Quick Return Handicaps
Back colts and geldings who last ran within 3 days. Must have won within
the past 4 weeks and SP in single
figures
Date created: 10-Mar-02
Initial Results: 35% strike rate, 43% profit
Why does it work?: a) Because males hold a tremendous edge over females,
b) turning out quickly on the
sand is a huge positive, c) by insisting the horse has won within 4
weeks shows he has winning ability, d) sin-
gle figure SP ensures that the contender is no donkey, or is not taking
a big rise in class.
Stakes races (not maiden), horse last ran within 3 days, 10 runners or
less, the favouriteInitial Results: 57% strike rate 33% profit
Why does it work?: Similar reasons to the handicap version - it is
relying on quick returners. You
could filter for males, but most of the qualifiers are males anyway.
Favourite Colts
Back Colts who won within 7 days and are the favourite
Date created: 29-Jan-02
Initial Results: 48% strike rate, 25% profit
Why does it work?: Because punters seriously underestimate a) the
importance of a recent win, b)
colts on the all weather. This favourite is very much underbet by form
punters and media pundits.
6yo in Selling Stakes
Back 6yo's in middle and long distance selling stakes in January. (Works
best with contenders who
are within the first three in the betting)
Date created: 04-Jan-02
Initial Results: 62% strike rate, 112% profit
Why does it work?: Because of a flaw in the weight for age scale. On Jan
1st all horses are one
year older. In this month there are peculiarities in certain stakes
races which creates biases to certain
age groups. 6yo's in selling stakes are one such advantaged group.
Recent Winners with Penalty
Class D-E Handicaps (not 3yo+), winner LTO within 7 days, age < 6,
penalty 4-7lbs, distance < 10f
Date created: 26-Dec-00
Initial Results: 42% strike rate, 27% profit
Why does it work?: On turf as well as AW the penalty system is not penal
enough. Trying to stop a
winning horse with extra weight is like King Canute trying to stop the
tide coming in. On the AW
though, this advantage is greater.
Don't be put off by the convoluted rules. It is slightly back fitted,
but all the usual safeguards and tests
have been done to prove the systems worthiness.
CD Top weights
Back CD winners who are top weight in Claimers and Sellers at 10f or more
Date created: 20-Aug-00
Initial Results: 47% strike rate, 30% profit
Why does it work?: Punters underestimate the chances of CD top weights
in those races. Most of
the contenders are serial sand winners and punters refuse to bet them
because they think a) the
horse has won enough races, b) the horse is running in a seller or
claimer so the connections can't
fancy it if they risk it being bought. This is wrong. The serial CD
winner in these races keeps on win-
ning and beating the lower weighted runners.
The provision of 10f+ is to ensure that the 'CD' has more meaning. The
longer the race, the more the
advantage of having won over the course and distance.
The Latest Results
Note:The above systems were created using Flatstats data and resources.
The above systems are
free and you are allowed to follow them if you wish to do so. Please do
not copy the systems and
claim as your own work. If you do wish to mention these systems in any
printed or electronic media
please ensure that you state clearly that the systems were obtained from
the Flatstats website. We
reserve the right to protect our work. We may prosecute any person who
profits from selling the
above systems.
The systems have made a profit in the past but there is no guarantee
that they may do so in the fu-
ture.
obtained courtesy of the Flatstats website ...
2nd Favourites at Grade 1 Courses
System: Back all 2nd favourites in Selling and Claiming races at Ascot,
Epsom, Goodwood, Kempton, New-
bury, Sandown, York
Date created: 23-Mar-02
Initial Results: 25% strike rate, 17% profit
Why does it work?: Because punters are not used to lowly sellers and
claimers at the very best courses.
They overbet 'he favourite and sometimes create false favourites. The
second favourite is thus underbet and
pushed into profitability.
Bookies have to balance their books and with all the weight of money on
the favourite, the price of the other
horses tend to lengthen. The second favourite is the 'second best' horse
in the race. If his price is higher than
it should be, then in the long run he is valuable to follow.
Beaten Favourites
Back beaten favourites in Novice races.
Horse must be fancied (SP < RUNNERS / 3.33) and not up in class
Date created: 25-Aug-00
Initial Results: 53% strike rate, 29% profit
Why does it work?: All beaten favourites are generally underbet by the
public. Punters see that they were
beaten last time when favourite and assume that he could be beaten again
today.
The reason why Novice races are profitable for this system is not known.
Next Day Runners
Back horses who ran yesterday and are favourite today
Date created: 27-Aug-00
Initial Results: 40% strike rate, 29% profit
Why does it work?: Punters are seriously underbetting this kind of
horse. All next day runners do not make a
profit. But those who are favourite win as often as a regular favourite
but have the added advantage of being
fit and strongly fancied by connections. The odds available for them is
higher than it should be, thus a value
bet can be had.
Quick Return Handicaps
Back colts and geldings who last ran within 3 days. Must have won within
the past 4 weeks and SP in single
figures
Date created: 10-Mar-02
Initial Results: 35% strike rate, 43% profit
Why does it work?: a) Because males hold a tremendous edge over females,
b) turning out quickly on the
sand is a huge positive, c) by insisting the horse has won within 4
weeks shows he has winning ability, d) sin-
gle figure SP ensures that the contender is no donkey, or is not taking
a big rise in class.
Stakes races (not maiden), horse last ran within 3 days, 10 runners or
less, the favouriteInitial Results: 57% strike rate 33% profit
Why does it work?: Similar reasons to the handicap version - it is
relying on quick returners. You
could filter for males, but most of the qualifiers are males anyway.
Favourite Colts
Back Colts who won within 7 days and are the favourite
Date created: 29-Jan-02
Initial Results: 48% strike rate, 25% profit
Why does it work?: Because punters seriously underestimate a) the
importance of a recent win, b)
colts on the all weather. This favourite is very much underbet by form
punters and media pundits.
6yo in Selling Stakes
Back 6yo's in middle and long distance selling stakes in January. (Works
best with contenders who
are within the first three in the betting)
Date created: 04-Jan-02
Initial Results: 62% strike rate, 112% profit
Why does it work?: Because of a flaw in the weight for age scale. On Jan
1st all horses are one
year older. In this month there are peculiarities in certain stakes
races which creates biases to certain
age groups. 6yo's in selling stakes are one such advantaged group.
Recent Winners with Penalty
Class D-E Handicaps (not 3yo+), winner LTO within 7 days, age < 6,
penalty 4-7lbs, distance < 10f
Date created: 26-Dec-00
Initial Results: 42% strike rate, 27% profit
Why does it work?: On turf as well as AW the penalty system is not penal
enough. Trying to stop a
winning horse with extra weight is like King Canute trying to stop the
tide coming in. On the AW
though, this advantage is greater.
Don't be put off by the convoluted rules. It is slightly back fitted,
but all the usual safeguards and tests
have been done to prove the systems worthiness.
CD Top weights
Back CD winners who are top weight in Claimers and Sellers at 10f or more
Date created: 20-Aug-00
Initial Results: 47% strike rate, 30% profit
Why does it work?: Punters underestimate the chances of CD top weights
in those races. Most of
the contenders are serial sand winners and punters refuse to bet them
because they think a) the
horse has won enough races, b) the horse is running in a seller or
claimer so the connections can't
fancy it if they risk it being bought. This is wrong. The serial CD
winner in these races keeps on win-
ning and beating the lower weighted runners.
The provision of 10f+ is to ensure that the 'CD' has more meaning. The
longer the race, the more the
advantage of having won over the course and distance.
The Latest Results
Note:The above systems were created using Flatstats data and resources.
The above systems are
free and you are allowed to follow them if you wish to do so. Please do
not copy the systems and
claim as your own work. If you do wish to mention these systems in any
printed or electronic media
please ensure that you state clearly that the systems were obtained from
the Flatstats website. We
reserve the right to protect our work. We may prosecute any person who
profits from selling the
above systems.
The systems have made a profit in the past but there is no guarantee
that they may do so in the fu-
ture.
Mr. G
Apr 19, 2021, 2:23:55 PM4/19/21
to
On Sun, 18 Apr 2021 19:30:25 UTC, al <a...@nospam.net> wrote:
al, thanks for your input although most of these angles have been known
for decades in one form or another.
I've been in this game since the 1960's and don't recall any horse running the next day,
though this comes from North American tracks only. Don't know anything about the world's
other tracks.
The downside to all of this is...as laid out these angles happen far too infrequently
to really matter to the bottom line.
--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com
al, thanks for your input although most of these angles have been known
for decades in one form or another.
I've been in this game since the 1960's and don't recall any horse running the next day,
though this comes from North American tracks only. Don't know anything about the world's
other tracks.
The downside to all of this is...as laid out these angles happen far too infrequently
to really matter to the bottom line.
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com
al
Apr 20, 2021, 12:22:27 PM4/20/21
to
my opinions on their worth. Just thought they might be of some interest
to the few who might still stop by here. I, too, am an "oldtimer" at
this game, having started at harness racing in Yonkers, NY in 1959!!
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