The Kentucky Derby 2021: Results, Statistical Analyses

[Ion Saliu]

Axiomatics and Horse Ultras:

Here are the results of the Kentucky Derby 2021, May 1 (including superfectas):

8 – 7 – 9 – 14

Two statistical reports for the entire history of the Kentucky Derby follow. For best viewing, copy and paste the report in Notepad; better still, in the free text editor Notepad++.


The Horse Numbers Ranked by Frequency
File: KentuckyDerbyResults
Drawings Analyzed: 146 | 1875 - 2021
Frequency norm based on probability: 12.00%

Rank Number Hits Percentage

1 1 54 36.99%
2 3 51 34.93%
3 5 43 29.45%
4 2 40 27.40%
5 7 39 26.71%
6 4 37 25.34%
7 8 32 21.92%
8 6 27 18.49%
9 10 25 17.12%
10 9 22 15.07%
11 11 14 9.59%
12 12 12 8.22%
13 13 10 6.85%
14 16 9 6.16%
15 14 6 4.11%
16 18 4 2.74%
17 17 3 2.05%
18 15 3 2.05%
19 19 3 2.05%
20 20 2 1.37%
21 22 1 0.68%
22 25 1 0.68%
23 23 0 0.00%
24 24 0 0.00%
25 21 0 0.00%


The Horse Numbers Ranked by Frequency - By Position
File: KentuckyDerbyResults
Drawings Analyzed: 146 | 1875 - 2021
Frequency norms based on probabilities: 4.00%

Rank Position 1 Position 2 Position 3
Number Hits % Number Hits % Number Hits %

1 1 23 15.75% 5 23 15.75% 3 23 15.75%
2 4 17 11.64% 1 20 13.70% 2 17 11.64%
3 8 15 10.27% 3 14 9.59% 9 14 9.59%
4 3 14 9.59% 7 14 9.59% 7 13 8.90%
5 7 12 8.22% 2 12 8.22% 5 12 8.22%
6 2 11 7.53% 4 10 6.85% 1 11 7.53%
7 6 11 7.53% 10 10 6.85% 8 10 6.85%
8 5 8 5.48% 8 7 4.79% 4 10 6.85%
9 10 7 4.79% 6 7 4.79% 6 9 6.16%
10 11 7 4.79% 13 7 4.79% 10 8 5.48%
11 9 4 2.74% 12 5 3.42% 12 6 4.11%
12 16 4 2.74% 9 4 2.74% 16 4 2.74%
13 14 2 1.37% 11 4 2.74% 14 3 2.05%
14 15 2 1.37% 17 2 1.37% 11 3 2.05%
15 13 2 1.37% 18 2 1.37% 15 1 0.68%
16 18 2 1.37% 19 2 1.37% 13 1 0.68%
17 20 2 1.37% 16 1 0.68% 17 1 0.68%
18 19 1 0.68% 14 1 0.68% 18 0 0.00%
19 12 1 0.68% 22 1 0.68% 19 0 0.00%
20 25 1 0.68% 20 0 0.00% 20 0 0.00%
21 21 0 0.00% 21 0 0.00% 21 0 0.00%
22 22 0 0.00% 15 0 0.00% 22 0 0.00%
23 23 0 0.00% 23 0 0.00% 23 0 0.00%
24 24 0 0.00% 24 0 0.00% 24 0 0.00%
25 17 0 0.00% 25 0 0.00% 25 0 0.00%


The entire history of the Kentucky Derby can be freely accessed:

• https://saliu.com/kentucky-derby-winners.html
• "Analysis of the Kentucky Derby past results, entire history of winning horse numbers by post positions PPs, ranked from the best to the worst."


Watch — or watch again — the really-first Triple Crown race in 2021:
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNNlSdkjuqA
The Kentucky Derby 2021 (FULL RACE) | NBC Sports.

Hope you won big! And best of luck next time!

Ion Saliu (royalty-name: Parpaluck),
The best horse bettor of all time.

[Ion Saliu]

2021 Kentucky Derby Results, Payouts
Win: No. 8 Medina Spirit (12-1)
Place: No. 7 Mandaloun (26-1)
Show: No. 9 Hot Rod Charlie (5-1)
Here are the payouts for the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta:

Exacta: 8-7, $2 exacta paid out $503.60
Trifecta: 8-7-9, $0.50 trifecta paid out $848.45
Superfecta: 8-7-9-14, $1 superfecta paid out $9,456.40


Full Finishing Order
(Number in parentheses is lengths back from winner.)

Medina Spirit
Mandaloun (1/4)
Hot Rod Charlie (1)
Essential Quality (1)
O Besos (5.5)
Midnight Bourbon (8.5)
Keepmeinmind (8.5)
Helium (10.5)
Known Agenda (10.5)
Highly Motivated (10.5)
Sainthood (12.5)
Like the King (12.5)
Bourbonic (15.5)
Hidden Stash (16.5)
Brooklyn Strong (18)
Super Stock (19.5)
Rock Your World (24)
Dynamic One (31)
Soup and Sandwich (64)
King Fury (SCR)