photovoltaics rule over biofuels
Bill
of gasoline fuel equivalent using biodiesel, cellulosic ethanol, and
photovoltaics respectively.
If the entire state of Iowa was used to make biodiesel, 35.8 million
acres (total land area) at 100
gallons acre (actual production is around 60 for soybeans to a high of
150 for high yield rapeseed). If you do the math that is 3.5 billion
gallons per year. The total farm area is 349 million acres in the
U.S. Actual Iowa cropland is 23.3 million acres.
It should be noted the highest yield of biodiesel
comes from algae at 1000 gallons per acre or more. Also if Iowa
farmers went to biodiesel, I would expect 5-10% yield gains annually
due to hybrids and bioengineering. Furthermore, the waste product
after biodiesel production still has uses as feed.
For ethanol we produced 285 gallons per acre in 1995 using corn. In
2004 we produced 385 gallons per acre. There are estimates by 2015
yield will be 600 gallons per acre. Furthermore there is cellulosic
ethanol with estimates as high as 1500-2000 gallons per acre.
Cellulosic uses wood and plant stems, it can also be used with corn.
But, also on more marginal lands and feedstocks such as Nebraska
switchgrass or even city green waste. Ethanol has about 2/3 the
energy content of gasoline and probably about 1/2 compared to diesel
and the diesel engine.
To run the entire country on diesel would take about 150 billion
gallons or about 500 gallons per person a year. Thus, 3.5 billion
gallons would be enough for 7 million people. For cellulosic ethanol
it would be about 30 million people.
Since immigration to the United States is about 3 million, 2 million
of it legally. We can use the whole state of Iowa to fuel two years
on immigration. To convert Iowa to biodiesel would take probably
about 5 years.
The population of Mexico and the US.
USA-Mexico (MM-million)
1900 76 MM-14MM
1950 161MM-26MM
2000 291MM-100MM
2050 438MM-180MM
Mexico is growing even though net migration is positive. Basically
Mexico is using the United States as a place to put their extra
population. The increase population will put demand on our resources
and thus higher prices.
So in summary vote against legal and illegal immigration and be pro-
choice. To be fair with Mexico, I think we should allow free travel
to work and vacation between the countries as long as you spend 6
months a year in your home country. Thus your home country would be
responsible for your family, schooling, and medical. As for the
immigrants already here, I think we could give them $5,000 and
possibly a kit home to take back with them.
Now there are other energy sources wind and solar specifically
photovoltaics. In Spain wind accounts for about 30% of total
electricity, more than hydroelectric. But, assume the entire state of
Iowa was covered with photovoltaics. 17 watts per square foot (could
potentially be 35 watts per square foot with 40% efficient cells).
43,560 square feet in a acre. 5 sun-hours a day (7 sun-hours a day in
Inyokern California). 250 WHrs/mile for a Prius. 30 miles in a
gallon. Do the math you get 493 gallons of equivalent gas in a DAY.
In a year, you get 180,000 equivalent gallons per acre. Furthermore,
the panels can be put on building killing 2 birds with one stone. If
you install one 3.5 megawatt windmill on an acre, you will get 876,000
equivalent gallons per acre. I think I get fuel for 13 billion people
from Iowa from photovoltaics. However, with all the black solar
panels covering a large area this may increase global warming.
There is another energy source no one is talking about the geothermal
heat near the ocean ridges. Probably the easiest to extract too, drop
a pipe to the ocean floor and the heat will rise automatically in the
pipe. Thermal solar, can store and make electricity at night.
Roderick
the above analysis does not take into account costs, either initial
capital, or ongoing maintenance. I don't think it's disputed that
photovoltaic is presently generating more energy per unit area than
biodiesel, but how does it compare in terms of price per energy unit?
Also, I don't think the plan is that anyone would produce biodiesel,
then burn it to drive a turbine to generate electricity, any more than
I would fill up at a gas station and run a Honda generator to power my
suburban home. Biodiesel can win, at least in the foreseeable future,
as a motor fuel.
Roland Mösl
news:ac694286-1475-4419...@l42g2000hsc.googlegroups.com...
> As a fan of solar, it's somewhat sacreligious for me to say this, but
> the above analysis does not take into account costs, either initial
> capital, or ongoing maintenance. I don't think it's disputed that
> photovoltaic is presently generating more energy per unit area than
> biodiesel, but how does it compare in terms of price per energy unit?
A medium sized car needs 15 kWh / 100 km
If You buy at $6000 per kW peak a photovoltaic
with a loan over 20 years with 4% interest,
You pay $442 per year.
In sothern US, 1600 kWh per kW installed
So You have US$ 0,276 per kWh or
$4,14 for 100km at 15 kWh/100km
in the future
oil price will incresase as usual
photovoltaic pric will decrease as usual
--
Roland Mösl
http://car.pege.org cars and traffic
http://live.pege.org building and live
http://www.pege.org
Roderick
> "Roderick" <roderick.yo...@lycos.com> schrieb im Newsbeitragnews:ac694286-1475-4419...@l42g2000hsc.googlegroups.com...
Those numbers look good. That seems like a reasonable cost analysis,
assuming you can get it installed for $6/watt, including materials.
That's not impossible, if rebates are available.
On the car side, how much would one have to pay for a battery to store
15 kWh of energy (100 km of driving)? As I understand it, electric
car batteries only last 3 years or so, so that should figure into the
costs, also.
Roland Mösl
On Apr 8, 4:04 am, Roland Mösl <foun...@pege.org> wrote:
> "Roderick" <roderick.yo...@lycos.com> schrieb im
> Newsbeitragnews:ac694286-1475-4419...@l42g2000hsc.googlegroups.com...
>On the car side, how much would one have to pay for a battery to store
>15 kWh of energy (100 km of driving)? As I understand it, electric
>car batteries only last 3 years or so, so that should figure into the
>costs, also.
You will never see current batteries in electric cars.
The lead battery stoped the development of electric cars long time
The lithium battery enables one century jump forward.
There are many different lithium chemistries in test at different companies.
But they have one in common: Designed for the live time of the car
or even longer.
The prices go down fast. So when You buy 2009 a plug-in hybrid,
do not worry about a new battery in 2019.
Technic and prices will be complete different.
Bellsouth Newsgroups
>
> If the entire state of Iowa was used to make biodiesel, 35.8 million
> acres (total land area) at 100
> gallons acre (actual production is around 60 for soybeans to a high of
> 150 for high yield rapeseed). If you do the math that is 3.5 billion
> gallons per year. The total farm area is 349 million acres in the
> U.S. Actual Iowa cropland is 23.3 million acres.
>
>
I love solar and I am in the business but for the Midwest (in high wind
areas like outside chicago where the wind factors are around 35%) I am a fan
of wind as well.
An example:
we have a 160 acre farm. we are installing 2 2.1 MW generators (through a
land-lease arrangement) These generators will remove less than 2 acres of
farmable land. Those 2 acres produce corn and soybeans similar to the
example above. If that corn/soybean crop from the TWO acres was used to
make biofuel (using biofuel for the process as well...not coal like many of
the so called "green" fuel plants) and that fuel was used in the most
efficient electrical generator, the fuel would produce the SAME POWER that
the generators produce in 30-60 MINUTES. (even using the 35% wind
rating...this rating is similar to insolation rating that we use) SO....
1 year of growing a crop using fertilizers, etc vs 45 minutes of wind.
Hmmmm.....
before you say it....
-True... we can't put 160 generators on the farm, only 2 so we are using the
WIND over the entire 160 acres BUT, we can still farm (or put solar) on 158
acres.
-There is a capital cost for the generators but they pay off in about 5
years with a 20-30 year life
-Bird life? They are slow moving and proved not to cause an issue in this
type of installation.
-Ugly? I happen to like them better than housing projects....and since
these wind leases go for 30-50 years, the farms are guaranteed NOT TO HAVE
houses on them for that period of time thus saving the farms from
development at least for our generation.
My thoughts?
- remove oil from our electrical production. (Move to Wind, Hydro, ocean
hydro and Solar and allow Nuke and coal for now but don't add any)
- move to plug-in hybrids. Most people drive less than 40 miles per day
and those that don't may find a charging source at their work that would
move that number to 80 miles/day. That alone would cut our consumption of
gas by about 60-80% and that would be enough to drop oil back to <$50 (Ask
Chavez what happens when you reduce demand to about 30% of what it was....
Gas in venezuela is about 50 cents a gallon)
Some say the GRID can't handle the load of electric and hybrids... no
problem... residential solar takes will take up the slack. ALSO, for most
areas, the grid is quiet after about 7-10PM so just make the cars start
charging after that time.
As a farm owner I LOVE the price of grain but as an engineer I know biofuels
using our food supply is not a long term solution.
BTW... anyone ready for $30/lb steak? $10 for a six pack of coke? $9
for a gallon of milk? Bio Fuel will make those prices a reality.
Bill
> BTW... anyone ready for $30/lb steak? $10 for a six pack of coke? $9
> for a gallon of milk? Bio Fuel will make those prices a reality.
Biofuel has little to do with increased food prices. It is the anti-
tax and spend attitude of the United States. The idea of the american
consumer just put it on the credit card. The CEOS making 100s of
million on stock options while the value of their companies in
Eurodollars or gold is dropping like a rock. No manager or CEO should
be making more than 10X the minimum wage in a public company. We a
bailing out the banks, paying for a war on credit, writing checks to
anyone who asks nicely, treating executives like gods while treating
engineers, doctors, farmers like dirt. As the debt increases the
value of the dollar in terms anything is dropping. All in all we have
the worst performing stock market decade in history of the United
States.
The rise in the prices is the result of the people we vote for, or the
people we are forced to vote for, based on who pays CNBC, FOX, Air
America, Rush and Hannity the most money.