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Re: Michigan could lose 150K union jobs if UAW strike lasts 4 weeks, expert says
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Kamala Stupid Harris
Nov 3, 2023, 12:10:03 AM11/3/23
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In article <ui1bd2$2eg32$7...@dont-email.me>
The future of Michigan's automotive industry could be at stake as
the UAW strike against the Detroit Three auto companies approaches
one week.
But a prolonged strike would have a much larger impact that goes
beyond the assembly lines, for both the Michigan and U.S. economies,
experts said during a roundtable discussion Thursday morning.
"A four-week strike would cost more than 150,000 jobs in Michigan.
And you can double that over eight weeks," said Marick Masters, a
business professor at Wayne State University and expert on labor
negotiations.
"Personal income, in a four-week strike across all three companies
will go down in the United States over a billion dollars. So you're
gonna see a tremendous hit."
Masters later told the Free Press he was citing a University of
Michigan analysis that examined the potentially massive economic
impact of a lengthy strike. That analysis suggested auto suppliers
would try to put off jobs cuts, but would be forced to take action
in the event the strike persisted beyond two weeks.
Masters and two other experts joined a Detroit Regional Chamber
virtual roundtable Thursday to discuss the strike, diving into the
economic realities for workers, auto companies and everyone else
affected by the industry. Glenn Stevens, executive director of
MICHauto, a group that advocates for multiple sectors in the
automotive industry, and John McElory, a longtime journalist and
analyst of the industry, agreed with Masters that UAW workers are
due a sizable pay increase.
But all three warned about the ramifications of a lengthy
negotiating process, and questioned what could happen if the union
stays on strike until it receives the vast majority of its demands.
"If (UAW President) Shawn Fain wants to restore (substantial cuts
automakers administered during the Great Recession) plus a 32-hour
workweek, a four-day workweek, this could likely be the last
contract he ever signs with the Detroit Three. They may not be
around in four years after this," McElroy said.
That's largely the stance Ford, GM and Stellantis took in the weeks
leading up to the strike. Last week, Ford CEO Jim Farley said the
40% pay increase, workweek demands and other benefits could bankrupt
Detroit's automakers.
However, Fain and others advocating for workers blast that
contention, specifically continuing to target compensation received
by Farley and his compatriots. They note the Ford chief earned
nearly $21 million, the same amount Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares
received in 2021. GM CEO Mary Barra received $29 million in 2021.
They argue those figures reflect a production boon on the backs of
workers who haven't received a contractual raise in years.
It's a strategy that's a departure from past negotiations, Masters
said, likely throwing the automakers off balance.
"They engaged, as is typical of a more militant and ideological
union, in a public relations campaign to make this a struggle
between good and evil, between the rich and the poor," Masters said.
Right now, the UAW is striking at three factories, including the
Ford Michigan Assembly plant in Wayne. The hundreds of picketers
outside the facility are repeatedly greeted by the honks and cheers
of sympathetic neighbors traveling down Michigan Avenue.
But that could change as manufacturers and others who only make a
livelihood when automotive plants are operational face a lengthening
strike. Citing recent conversations with manufacturers, Stevens said
companies are already conducting layoffs and reducing workweeks or
vacations in an effort to mitigate revenue loss.
"They're basically held hostage. That's a strong word to use, but
that's a word that one of the executives used with me. They have all
the stakes in the game and they are innocent bystanders right now,"
Stevens said.
"And as things roll, if they don't progress — this is why we have to
have an agreement — and the multiplier effect of these jobs, it can
get real devastating real quick."
Fain promised an update Friday and if companies have not shown "real
progress" on providing updated contract offers, the UAW is expected
to start striking at new locations.
As McElroy noted, the union has the funds to continue to pay
striking workers the promised $500 per week until roughly Christmas.
But he and the others suggested public opinion could shift as many
others not directly involved in the strike see money leaving their
own pockets.
"I worry as to whether Shawn Fain gets the big picture. He's very
focused on what his members want, and wants he wants to deliver to
them. What about this move to electrification? This is threatening
to the automakers," McElroy said, listing several other industry
shifts imperiling the Detroit Three.
"If he is going to ignore those things, and the collateral damage of
everybody getting laid off because of the ripple effect ... I would
argue if you're going to ignore all those other things, that's just
as greedy as the people that you're attacking."
https://www.freep.com/story/money/business/michigan/2023/09/21/michi
gan-jobs-uaw-auto-strike-detroit/70921695007/
The future of Michigan's automotive industry could be at stake as
the UAW strike against the Detroit Three auto companies approaches
one week.
But a prolonged strike would have a much larger impact that goes
beyond the assembly lines, for both the Michigan and U.S. economies,
experts said during a roundtable discussion Thursday morning.
"A four-week strike would cost more than 150,000 jobs in Michigan.
And you can double that over eight weeks," said Marick Masters, a
business professor at Wayne State University and expert on labor
negotiations.
"Personal income, in a four-week strike across all three companies
will go down in the United States over a billion dollars. So you're
gonna see a tremendous hit."
Masters later told the Free Press he was citing a University of
Michigan analysis that examined the potentially massive economic
impact of a lengthy strike. That analysis suggested auto suppliers
would try to put off jobs cuts, but would be forced to take action
in the event the strike persisted beyond two weeks.
Masters and two other experts joined a Detroit Regional Chamber
virtual roundtable Thursday to discuss the strike, diving into the
economic realities for workers, auto companies and everyone else
affected by the industry. Glenn Stevens, executive director of
MICHauto, a group that advocates for multiple sectors in the
automotive industry, and John McElory, a longtime journalist and
analyst of the industry, agreed with Masters that UAW workers are
due a sizable pay increase.
But all three warned about the ramifications of a lengthy
negotiating process, and questioned what could happen if the union
stays on strike until it receives the vast majority of its demands.
"If (UAW President) Shawn Fain wants to restore (substantial cuts
automakers administered during the Great Recession) plus a 32-hour
workweek, a four-day workweek, this could likely be the last
contract he ever signs with the Detroit Three. They may not be
around in four years after this," McElroy said.
That's largely the stance Ford, GM and Stellantis took in the weeks
leading up to the strike. Last week, Ford CEO Jim Farley said the
40% pay increase, workweek demands and other benefits could bankrupt
Detroit's automakers.
However, Fain and others advocating for workers blast that
contention, specifically continuing to target compensation received
by Farley and his compatriots. They note the Ford chief earned
nearly $21 million, the same amount Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares
received in 2021. GM CEO Mary Barra received $29 million in 2021.
They argue those figures reflect a production boon on the backs of
workers who haven't received a contractual raise in years.
It's a strategy that's a departure from past negotiations, Masters
said, likely throwing the automakers off balance.
"They engaged, as is typical of a more militant and ideological
union, in a public relations campaign to make this a struggle
between good and evil, between the rich and the poor," Masters said.
Right now, the UAW is striking at three factories, including the
Ford Michigan Assembly plant in Wayne. The hundreds of picketers
outside the facility are repeatedly greeted by the honks and cheers
of sympathetic neighbors traveling down Michigan Avenue.
But that could change as manufacturers and others who only make a
livelihood when automotive plants are operational face a lengthening
strike. Citing recent conversations with manufacturers, Stevens said
companies are already conducting layoffs and reducing workweeks or
vacations in an effort to mitigate revenue loss.
"They're basically held hostage. That's a strong word to use, but
that's a word that one of the executives used with me. They have all
the stakes in the game and they are innocent bystanders right now,"
Stevens said.
"And as things roll, if they don't progress — this is why we have to
have an agreement — and the multiplier effect of these jobs, it can
get real devastating real quick."
Fain promised an update Friday and if companies have not shown "real
progress" on providing updated contract offers, the UAW is expected
to start striking at new locations.
As McElroy noted, the union has the funds to continue to pay
striking workers the promised $500 per week until roughly Christmas.
But he and the others suggested public opinion could shift as many
others not directly involved in the strike see money leaving their
own pockets.
"I worry as to whether Shawn Fain gets the big picture. He's very
focused on what his members want, and wants he wants to deliver to
them. What about this move to electrification? This is threatening
to the automakers," McElroy said, listing several other industry
shifts imperiling the Detroit Three.
"If he is going to ignore those things, and the collateral damage of
everybody getting laid off because of the ripple effect ... I would
argue if you're going to ignore all those other things, that's just
as greedy as the people that you're attacking."
https://www.freep.com/story/money/business/michigan/2023/09/21/michi
gan-jobs-uaw-auto-strike-detroit/70921695007/
Kamala Stupid Harris
Nov 3, 2023, 12:15:03 AM11/3/23
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