Any one care to discuss: Ray Kurzweil, "The Singularity is . . .",
Bill Po
This is for anyone who wants to respond. Let's get a thread going
on this topic.
If you've read "The Singularity is Near", what's your take on it?
I've recently read it (twice), and have been blown-away by it. My
friends call it crazy! (They all like to cut it to ribbons, without
reading or knowing anything about it.) I'd like to discuss it with
those of you who HAVE read it.
What are the credible futuristic arguments (for . . . and against)
the coming Singularity of a nano revolution?
What do you see as the logical timeline for the amazing prospects
he and K. Eric Drexler have foreseen? Do you think they are right?
Why? Why not?
Leave a post! All viewpoints are welcome.
Thanks.
Bill P.
P.S.
If you've read 'Engines of Creation' by K. Eric Drexler, please
give your opinions on that as well. Where are we now, in accordance
with his projections? Is it happening? Will it happen? When? Why?
Or . . . Why not?
Bill Po
I posted the message below on July 02, 2009. Is this group dead
or alive? How long will it take for someone to jump-in?
BP
On Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:29:41 -0400, Bill Po <dru...@earthlink.net>
wrote:
Jim Logajan
> Hi again,
> I posted the message below on July 02, 2009. Is this group dead
> or alive? How long will it take for someone to jump-in?
Any reason you didn't also post it to sci.nanotech?
>> If you've read "The Singularity is Near", what's your take on it?
Sorry, haven't read the book. Only just took a quick look at the
Wikipedia entry for it
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near).
>>I've recently read it (twice), and have been blown-away by it. My
>>friends call it crazy! (They all like to cut it to ribbons, without
>>reading or knowing anything about it.) I'd like to discuss it with
>>those of you who HAVE read it.
Counts me out.
>> What are the credible futuristic arguments (for . . . and against)
>>the coming Singularity of a nano revolution?
Have you checked out the "Criticisms" section of this Wikipedia entry:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity
>> What do you see as the logical timeline for the amazing prospects
>>he and K. Eric Drexler have foreseen? Do you think they are right?
I've been following nanotechnology progress for about 20 years. It is my
personal observation that the projected dates of predicted events keep
getting pushed back. This doesn't make predictions of the events
eventually happening wrong per se, just that the predictors tend to
underestimate or overlook difficulties.
>> If you've read 'Engines of Creation' by K. Eric Drexler, please
>>give your opinions on that as well. Where are we now, in accordance
>>with his projections? Is it happening? Will it happen? When? Why?
>>Or . . . Why not?
I don't recall seeing any specific projections in "Engines". In fact
Drexler has a whole chapter on the perils and problems of predicting and
projecting.
Bill Po
Thanks for responding. I'll check out the wikipedia thing.
It's difficult to find a qualified debate of the things that
Kurzweil and Drexler have said. Too many people will scoff
and call it science-fiction, without reading or knowing anything
at all, about either book, or their author's credentials.
I highly recommend that you would enjoy reading "The
Singularity is Near". It's an easier read than 'Engines of Creation'.
Ray Kurzweil holds something like 16 Doctorates. He's very
credible, and the book is primarily about his time-line. He explains
some very profound reasoning for his conclusions about when
it will all occur. If he's even remotely correct, we are in for
some pretty awesome changes in the very near future.
I understand there's even a movie coming-out in the
Fall, called, "The Singularity is Coming'. I'm anxious to se it.
I had to order the book from Barnes and Noble. It wasn't
on the shelves. It's only about $20. I'm calling it one of the
best books I've ever read.
Grab a copy, read it, and get back. I think you may be saying
the same thing.
Bill P
On Sun, 05 Jul 2009 17:07:03 -0500, Jim Logajan <Jam...@Lugoj.com>
wrote:
Jim Logajan
> I highly recommend that you would enjoy reading "The
> Singularity is Near". It's an easier read than 'Engines of Creation'.
I'll look into it.
> Ray Kurzweil holds something like 16 Doctorates.
According to the Wikipedia entry for him, all 16 doctorates appear to be
honorary. They only indicate he's been showered with honor, nothing more.
As best I can make out, the only degrees he studied academically for, and
earned, were undergraduate degrees in Computer Science and Literature from
MIT. So it isn't his academic background that made him stand out.
> He's very
> credible, and the book is primarily about his time-line.
Keep in mind that some of his critics are also credible.
rabbit
about the late 2020's to 2040, beyond which predictions are impossible.
This book has had a profound impact on me because it has let it sink in
that I may very well live forever. This is the most profound possibility
in the history of everything. What has always been true (we all must
die) is no longer true. I had been living with my looming death in the
future (I am 36) but now I have a sense of freedom that is just starting
to sink in.
When will be in a nanobot induced virtual reality? I don't know, but the
fact that we will likely stop aging makes me not care. So what if I have
to wait another 40 years? I intend to be as 25 years old then.
rabbit
imagine a human' (paraphrase)
I think we can imagine a lot, and I don't think we're limited like
ameoba. What comes after the ability to think abstractly? Is there a
"meta abstraction". I think we are intelligent, period. I can imagine
such a thing as IQ of 1000, but IQ of 10^8? I don't think so.
'future intelligences will respect our existence like we respect and
protect chimpanzees' (paraphrase)
The vast majority of our ponderings assume the inherent worth of every
human life. I don't think this is right. We should be careful which sort
of demigods we create. we could very well end up with something which
sprays some sort of Lysol over the earth. Maybe it will only save the
"interesting" people...
Bill Po
>This book has had a profound impact on me because it has let it sink in
>that I may very well live forever. This is the most profound possibility
>in the history of everything. What has always been true (we all must
>die) is no longer true. I had been living with my looming death in the
>future (I am 36) but now I have a sense of freedom that is just starting
>to sink in.
>
>When will be in a nanobot induced virtual reality? I don't know, but the
>fact that we will likely stop aging makes me not care. So what if I have
>to wait another 40 years? I intend to be as 25 years old then.
06/26/2010 . . .
The post (above) is a typical response of someone who has actually
READ THE BOOK, ("The Singularity is Near", by Ray Kurzweil).
It impacted me the very same way. What a motivator it is.
FOR EXAMPLE:
I've tried to diet and exercise BEFORE reading that book, and achieved
little. Truthfully, I failed miserably . . . because I couldn't see
the future . . . and because I wasn't REALLY motivated TO LIVE BEYOND
MY EXPECTED LIFE-CYCLE!
Since reading it . . . I've toned-up, lost 25 lbs., defeated type II
diabetes, and have rejuvenated my own health-age backward, towards
FEELING LIKE I'm 40, though I'm 68! Even my doctors are asking
me how I did it! The Kurzweil philosophy and vision of now, . . .
(and the VERY NEAR future) . . . is/was the reason!
"The Singularity is Near" . . . isn't about those (health) things at
all. It is about the many advantages (and some fears) of
nano-tech . . . but it has a motivating impact on anyone who actually
READS AND UNDERSTANDS what is being said.
ONE POINT of the book. . .?
If we take care of ourselves NOW . . . we can ALL make it
well beyond our expected life-cycles, STARTING NOW! The 'Singularity'
. . . is very near! Truthfully . . . it is here and now . . . for
those who can see the glass as 'half full' . . . rather than 'half
empty'. (Read the book, before arguing that point! . . . It will
stand you on your head, and the new perspective might be just
what you are needing!)
So what . . . if we won't ALL live to 3011! You can easily extend
your current lifespan an extra 10 or 15 years RIGHT NOW, with
the proper knowledge, motivation and current technology.
Then, by 2026 . . . you 'may' be in for a few truly amazing nano-tech
surprizes that will extend your life . . . even more.
I've never found a critic of the book, who has ACTUALLY READ IT!
The only critics, tend to be those who have only read the back
cover . . . and 'THINK' they know what it's about. (They don't know,
Jack!)
'The Sigularity is Near", picks-up where Feynman and Drexler
leave off. (Read it BEFORE you criticize it, . . . thus making
yourself look foolish.)
Incidentally . . .
This newsgroup isn't moving as fast as I'd like to see!
We're all in this newsgroup to see WHAT IS, and WHAT HAS, occurred
on the nano-tech horizon . . . RECENTLY . . .
There's PLENTY happening in laboratories around the
World, everyday! It just doesn't make the 6:00 o'clock news, . . .
that's all.
(. . . Most of the BREAKTHROUGHS aren't being discussed here either.)
To keep up with the daily breakthroughs, visit . . .
www.KurzweilAI.net
and subscribe to their DAILY NEWSLETTER. Then, come back here
and talk about what you've learned. 'It's one of the few daily
newsletters that does NOT come at a price. It's totally free.
Each newsletter has only one little 'spam blurb' at the end.
Yet, each daily issue is loaded with the events
(current-breakthroughs) that have taken place in labs around
the World, on the PREVIOUS DAY or WEEK. I've been a subscriber for
two years now. Not once have I been spammed.
Haha . . . I realize the above might sound 'a little like spam', but I
promise you, I have nothing to do with the Kurzweil movement. I'm
only expressing honest appreciation and enthusiasm for what I've
discovered as a result of following Mr. Kurzweil's visions, ideas,
thoughts, philosophies and proof.
Read his book(s), . . . subscribe to the newsletter . . . or remain
despondent, cynical and sadly uninformed!