Why Putin will regret launching this war
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/06/opinions/bergen-mike-repass-putin-invasion
Has Vladimir Putin’s assault on Ukraine outrun the resources he’s
committed to it? That’s the view of retired US Army Major General Mike
Repass, who has an informed vantage point on the conflict, having worked
in the Ukrainian security sector since 2016. The former commander of the
US Special Operations Command in Europe, Repass provides education and
advisory support to the Ukrainian military on a US government contract.
...
Bergen: Why was this so poorly planned, or was it just that it was
likely to not go well because of the weather circumstances we’re seeing?
Repass: We assume the Russians are capable of efficient planning, but
they’re also capable of bad planning. They haven’t done this level of
planning and execution in any of their training exercises. So, they’re
somewhat unfamiliar with the large maneuver and sustainment aspects of
what they’re attempting to do.
Bergen: What’s next?
Repass: A Russian campaign to turn the cities into rubble, creating a
refugee crisis, overwhelming the borders and the border nations, and
destabilizing Central and Eastern Europe.
They’re going to target government infrastructure and then means of
command and control – public communications, internet, radio towers,
cell phone towers – anything they can do to disrupt communications, so
they separate the people from the government.
With this campaign, they want to create mass shock and panic in the
society to create complex challenges for the government and degrade the
will of the people. Already about a million refugees have crossed the
borders out of a population of around 41 million. That’s going to go up
significantly. You’re going to have several million people streaming to
the west.
Belarus and Russia will likely declare martial law, and they’ll be able
to clamp down on all manner of public discourse, media, internet, and
cut down any potential for resistance or coup attempts internal to their
countries.
They likely will combine forces, move to seal off the western border of
Ukraine, first, to create a greater humanitarian disaster in Ukraine;
and second, to cut off any resupply coming in from the West.
I think at that point in time, the Ukraine military, will continue to
fight primarily west of the Dnieper River. In other places, particularly
in the Ukrainian urban centers, you’re going to have an insurgency. A
resistance will rise up either pre-planned or organically, and they will
inflict pain and destruction on the Russians to the extent that they can.
This is where the term “indigestible” comes into play. The Russians may
be able to consume Ukraine, but they cannot digest it. It will be too
painful to hold onto it, and eventually they will have to spit it back
out. In essence, the cost of occupation is too great compared to the
returns.