Muslims cast deciding vote in French election
THURSDAY, 17 MAY 2012 05:29
SOEREN KERN
Muslims cast the deciding voted that thrust Hollande into the Elysée
Palace. He also pledged to change French electoral laws so that Muslim
residents without French citizenship would be allowed to vote in
municipal elections as of 2014, enabling the Socialist Party to
tighten its grip on political power.
An analysis of the voting
patterns that barrelled François Hollande to victory on May 6 as the
first Socialist president of France since 1995 shows that this
overthrow was due in large measure to Muslims, who voted for him in
overwhelming numbers.
The French vote marks the first time that Muslims have determined the
outcome of a presidential election in a major western European
country; it is a preview of things to come.
As the politically active Muslim population in France continues to
swell, and as most Muslims vote for Socialist and leftwing parties,
conservative parties will find it increasingly difficult to win future
elections in France.
According to a survey of 10,000 French voters conducted by the polling
firm OpinionWay for the Paris-based newspaper Le Figaro, an
extaordinary 93% of French Muslims voted for Hollande on May 6. By
contrast, the poll shows that only 7% of French Muslims voted for the
incumbent, Nicolas Sarkozy.
An estimated 2 million Muslims participated in the 2012 election,
meaning that roughly 1.7 million Muslim votes went to Hollande rather
than to Sarkozy. In the election as a whole, however, Hollande won
over Sarkozy by only 1.1 million votes. This figure implies that
Muslims cast the deciding votes that thrust Hollande into the Élysée
Palace.
France, home to between five and six million Muslims, already has the
largest Muslim population in the European Union, and those numbers are
expected to increase exponentially in coming years. According to
conservative estimates, the Muslim population is projected to exceed
10% of the overall French population within the next decade-and-a-
half.
During the campaign, Hollande offered an amnesty to all of the
estimated 400,000 illegal Muslim immigrants currently in France. He
also pledged to change French electoral laws so that Muslim residents
without French citizenship would be allowed to vote in municipal
elections as of 2014. These measures, if implemented, would enable the
Socialist Party tighten its grip on political power, both at the
regional and national levels.
Muslims in France -- and across Europe as a whole -- tend to support
the Socialists for a variety of demographic, socio-economic and
ideological reasons.
Most Muslims in Europe live in lower-income households and experience
higher levels of unemployment. As a result, Socialists and Muslims are
locked into a politically advantageous power-dependence relationship,
between the givers of social welfare benefits and the givers of votes.
Not surprisingly, Socialists favor increased Muslim immigration, which
in turn produces more voters for Socialist parties.
In the ideological sphere, Socialists and Muslims generally share a
mutual antipathy for traditional Judeo-Christian values. Although many
Muslims oppose the secular agenda of the Socialists, most Muslims
wholeheartedly support Socialist multicultural dogma, which they are
leveraging to promote the Islamization of Europe.
In foreign policymaking, Socialists and Muslims share a mutual disdain
for the United States and Israel. Leftwing parties across Europe have
turned anti-Zionism into a politically correct form of anti-Semitism.
The increasingly hysterical anti-Israel rhetoric emanating from
Socialist circles has contributed to a spike in anti-Semitic hate
crimesacross the continent; many of these crimes against Jews are
being perpetrated by Muslims.
Although Hollande has not articulated his views on Israel -- he has
said he wants to visit Israel and the Palestinian territories this
summer -- many observers fear that Hollande will surround himself with
a coterie of leftwing advisors who will push him to distance France
from the pro-Jewish, pro-Israel course established by Sarkozy.
Hollande has also said he is opposed to Israeli or American military
action against Iranian nuclear facilities and many analysts believe
the new French government will seek to weaken international sanctions
against Iran.
The political changes in France have many Jews concerned about their
future. On the day that French voters elected Hollande as their new
president, more than 5,000 French Jews participated in an Aliyah
(immigration of Jews to Israel) fair in Paris. The annual event,
organized and run by the Jewish Agency, usually attracts about 2,000
visitors.
To be sure, France is not the only country in which Muslims are
changing the political dynamic.
In Denmark, Socialist Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt won the
parliamentary election in September 2011 by a margin of just 8,500
votes. According to an opinion survey, 89.1% of Muslims said they
would vote for Socialist or leftwing parties. There are an estimated
200,000 Muslims in Denmark, 100,000 of whom are eligible to vote.
In Britain, a new research report entitled, "Degrees of Separation:
Ethnic minority voters and the Conservative Party," shows that 47% of
Muslims say they have affinity for the Labour Party, while on 5% say
they identify with the Conservatives. During the 2010 elections,
Muslim voters were the deciding factor in 82 constituencies.
In the London Borough of Tower Hamlets, Muslim voters elected the
Bangladeshi-born Lutfur Rahman as their mayor. He is linked to the
Islamic Forum of Europe (IFE), an Islamist group dedicated to changing
the "very infrastructure of society, its institutions, its culture,
its political order and its creed ... from ignorance to Islam." Since
taking office, Rahman has stocked the public libraries in Tower
Hamlets with books and DVDs containing the extremist sermons of banned
Islamist preachers.
Also in Britain, Labour Party MP Jim Fitzpatrick recently warned that
his party has been infiltrated by radical Muslims who want to create
an "Islamic social and political order" there. Muslims, he said, are
"placing people within the political parties, recruiting members to
those political parties, trying to get individuals selected and
elected so they can exercise political influence and power, whether
it's at local government level or national level." He added: "They are
completely at odds with Labour's program, with our support for
secularism."
In Belgium, Muslims now make up one-quarter of the population of
Brussels. In real terms, the number of Muslims in Brussels -- where
half of all Muslims in Belgium currently live --- has reached 300,000,
meaning that the self-styled "Capital of Europe" is now the most
Islamic city in Europe.
In practical terms, Islam mobilizes more people in Brussels than does
the Roman Catholic Church, and demographers expect that Muslims will
comprise the majority of the population of Brussels by 2030.
In Belgium as a whole, new research from the Itinera Institute
forecasts that by 2060, 60% of the Belgian population will be foreign
born, which will have clear implications for Belgian politics.
In Norway, new statistics show that immigrants will make up almost
half of Oslo's population by 2040. The study, the first ever
projection of immigration trends to be published in Norway, shows that
the largest cities will also see the biggest upsurge in immigrant
numbers. In the country as a whole, the immigrant population is
expected to jump from 12% to 24%, or from 600,000 people today to 1.5
million in 2040.
In Spain, the Socialist Party recently attempted to pass a law in
parliament that would have enabled more than 500,000 Moroccans
residing in Spain to vote in Spanish municipal elections. If enacted,
the measure would have ensured permanent Socialist control over all
Spanish towns and cities with significant Muslim minorities. The
measure was derailed in November 2011, when, in the general election,
the Socialists were ousted from power.
SOURCE:Gatestone Institute
Soeren Kern is Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based
Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group. Follow him
on Facebook.
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