A BATTLE IS LOST, BUT NOT THE WAR
and/or www.mantra.com/jai
By Kanchan Gupta
The Pioneer
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Atal Bihari Vajpayee was given to moments of jocular
frivolity at times of great stress, for instance on the eve
of election results. At the fag end of the 1999 election
campaign, a senior journalist asked him what would rate as
one of the most banal, if not asinine, questions: "Mr
Vajpayee, who do you think will emerge winner?" Without
batting his eyelids, Mr Vajpayee replied, "Of course the
BJP." That was contrary to what opinion polls, including
one commissioned by his party, were saying: The Congress,
according to pollsters, had an edge over the BJP. Later
that evening, I made a passing reference to the ease with
which he was predicting a BJP victory in the face of a
concerted Congress assault. Mr Vajpayee laughed it off and
then said, "Nobody can predict the outcome of an election,
never mind what politicians and pollsters say." Placing
three fingers of his right hand face down on his left palm,
he added, "Any election is like a game of 'teen patti'
(three-card game). Till such time you turn the cards and
see them, you can only guess what has been dealt to you.
Similarly, till the votes are counted, nobody can say with
any certitude what lies in store for the contestants."
On the face of it, such wisdom may appear commonplace.
After all, veterans of electoral wars would be the first to
agree that no battle is won or lost till the last vote is
counted. Yet, come election time and every politician and
pollster tries to outguess the voter, more often than not
coming to grief. The 1999 opinion polls, including the one
commissioned by the BJP, turned out to be way off the mark.
The BJP and its allies were returned to power with a
majority of their own; the Congress had to eat humble pie.
So also with the exit polls that were telecast 72 hours
before the results of the 2009 general election were
declared on Saturday -- they didn't quite forecast such a
stunningly stupendous performance by the Congress and the
BJP's astonishing failure to meet its own expectations,
fuelled by internal assessments that failed to reflect the
popular mood. Whoever predicted on the basis of an 'exit
poll', and thereby made the party look silly on Saturday,
that the NDA would get 217 seats compared to the UPA's 176
owes more than a mere explanation.
The Congress, no doubt, has won a splendid victory; not to
accept this fact would be sheer cussedness. Having said
that, it would be equally incorrect to subscribe to the
view that at the moment the Congress is riding the crest of
a tidal popularity wave which in the coming days will turn
into a tsunami of support for the party. Yes, the Congress
has made stupendous gains, but a close scrutiny of the
results will show that they are not entirely at the expense
of the BJP. Nor have the gains accrued to the Congress on
account of either policy or programme. For instance, the
Congress has picked up a large number of seats in Kerala
and West Bengal for reasons that are entirely different. In
Kerala, the Left has paid a huge price for infighting
within the CPI(M) that has spilled into the streets: A
divided cadre couldn't get their act together. In West
Bengal, the Left has been decimated because popular
resentment with the CPI(M) for the various sins of omission
and commission of the Marxists reached tipping point in
this election, helped in large measure by the alliance
between the Trinamool Congress and the Congress.
In States where the BJP has lost seats to the Congress, the
credit largely goes to saboteurs within the party. It is no
secret that a section of the BJP worked against the party's
nominees in certain constituencies in Madhya Pradesh. In
Rajasthan, the reasons that led to the BJP's defeat in last
year's Assembly election remain unresolved. In Uttarakhand,
infighting has led to the BJP's rout. In Jammu & Kashmir,
the BJP could have won in Udhampur and Jammu if the local
party units had not abandoned the candidates whom they saw
as 'outsiders'. In Maharashtra, the BJP failed to correctly
assess the strength of Mr Raj Thackeray's MNS which has
turned out to be a spoiler in Mumbai's urban constituencies
where the party stood a good chance of winning. By default,
the Congress has benefited on account of the BJP's
deficiencies. Nowhere is this more evident than in Uttar
Pradesh where the BJP clearly failed to sense the shift in
voter preference and ended up under-estimating its ability
to pick up additional seats which have now gone to the
Congress, swelling its national tally.
These reasons apart, at the end of the day what emerges is
that the Congress has reached where it has on account of
four factors whose impact could not have been predicted at
any stage during the campaign when popular mood is
palpable. First, the 'Chiru factor' has put paid to the
TDP's hopes of staging a comeback. The Congress has gained
in the process. Second, the 'Vijaykant factor' has spiked
the AIADMK's electoral prospects. The 'Black MGR of Tamil
Nadu politics' has turned out to be a classic spoiler.
Third, the 'Mamata factor' was never seriously factored in,
especially by the Left, while calculating the possible
outcome of this election. Ironically, the amazing collapse
of the Left has worked to the detriment of the BJP. Fourth,
the 'urban factor' continues to elude logical
interpretation. If the voting trend is any indication, we
must come to the conclusion, and regretfully so, that
India's middleclass is no longer guided by the moral
compass. Nothing else explains why corruption should cease
to be an election issue and the brazen exoneration by the
Congress of those who have looted India fetch no more than
a cynical, couldn't-care-less response. It is equally
surprising that the middleclass should have chosen to
overlook the mishandling of the national economy by the UPA
Government and the pitiable state of internal security. We
would have thought that these are concerns that agitate the
middleclass the most since they shout the most about
corruption, price rise and terrorism.
There is, however, no percentage in looking back. The BJP
remains a national alternative to the Congress, more so
after this election which has pushed regional parties and
their identity politics to the margins of national
politics. The BJP's tally is nothing to scoff at. There is
no shame in sitting in the Opposition and preparing for the
next battle. Elections come and go, but parties remain. It
is for their leaders to use the interregnum to reflect on
mistakes, regain organisational strength and revive hope
among the faithful. There are, after all, no full stops in
politics, and life does not come to an end with the
declaration of results.
- Blog on this issue at: kanchangupta.blogspot.com
http://dailypioneer.com/176634/A-battle-is-lost-but-not-the-war.html
More at:
http://www.dailypioneer.com
Jai Maharaj
http://tinyurl.com/24fq83
http://www.mantra.com/jai
http://www.mantra.com/jyotish
Om Shanti
Hindu Holocaust Museum
http://www.mantra.com/holocaust
Hindu life, principles, spirituality and philosophy
http://www.hindu.org
http://www.hindunet.org
The truth about Islam and Muslims
http://www.flex.com/~jai/satyamevajayate
DISCLAIMER AND CONDITIONS
o Not for commercial use. Solely to be fairly used for the educational
purposes of research and open discussion. The contents of this post may not
have been authored by, and do not necessarily represent the opinion of the
poster. The contents are protected by copyright law and the exemption for
fair use of copyrighted works.
o If you send private e-mail to me, it will likely not be read,
considered or answered if it does not contain your full legal name, current
e-mail and postal addresses, and live-voice telephone number.
o Posted for information and discussion. Views expressed by others are
not necessarily those of the poster who may or may not have read the article.
FAIR USE NOTICE: This article may contain copyrighted material the use of
which may or may not have been specifically authorized by the copyright
owner. This material is being made available in efforts to advance the
understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic,
democratic, scientific, social, and cultural, etc., issues. It is believed
that this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as
provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title
17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without
profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included
information for research, comment, discussion and educational purposes by
subscribing to USENET newsgroups or visiting web sites. For more information
go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml
If you wish to use copyrighted material from this article for purposes of
your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the
copyright owner.
Spiridon Wolf
and/or www.mantra.com/jai
harmony
message news:20090517EPU7Co1s692t17mfR6jk1KZ@RXLBK...
>A battle is lost, but not the war
>
it was not lost because the people did not vote for the bjp. it was lost
depite the people voted for the bjp in all like;ihood. india has been
defrauded by evm hacking by forces allied with congress, a party of super
fraudulent people - congress now does not care for mulla mulayam singh, but
was very eager to use him to buy off mps' votes during no-confidence. in
ohter words, if there is a way to commit a fraud to grab power, congress
will do it. this is a given, and nobody needs to be surprised and nor there
is any room any more to give the benefit of doubt to congress of gandhis.
and/or www.mantra.com/jai
"harmony" <a...@hotmail.com> posted:
> Dr. Jai Maharaj posted:
>> A battle is lost, but not the war
> it was not lost because the people did not vote for the bjp. it was lost
> depite the people voted for the bjp in all like;ihood. india has been
> defrauded by evm hacking by forces allied with congress, a party of super
> fraudulent people - congress now does not care for mulla mulayam singh, but
> was very eager to use him to buy off mps' votes during no-confidence. in
> ohter words, if there is a way to commit a fraud to grab power, congress
> will do it. this is a given, and nobody needs to be surprised and nor there
> is any room any more to give the benefit of doubt to congress of gandhis.
The Congress Party has the means, opportunity and desire to commit as much
fraud as possible.
Jai Maharaj, Jyotishi
Om Shanti
P. Rajah
> The Congress Party has the means, opportunity and desire to commit as much
> fraud as possible.
More so than you, Jay? Is the Congress Party into jyotishit fraud too?