Lies are all around you

[Henosis Sage]

"Lies are all around you, develop a better bullshit detector."

Bill Maher

[Henosis Sage]

On Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 00:07:35 UTC+10, Henosis Sage wrote:
> "Lies are all around you, develop a better bullshit detector."
>
> Bill Maher

fwiw Came across this take, I think is very good, and can be applied to anything, from loud mouthed opinionated internet trolls, to eckankar's true history and present, and to geopolitics or stock markets (teetering on the edge yet again, no surprises there surely) or whatever your interest may be. I know next to no one will read this, but what the hell. If it helps one person that is a damned good thing.


some humbly asked ....
Really don't mean to stir shit with this post - just a twenty-something with zero qualifications in this area trying to make sense of what's going on: [...]
Is there some kind of job-/life-experience that allows to see through this mess to some extent or is everything just pure speculation from some more and some less credentialed and qualified commentators? Not looking for the simple and golden solution here, but just rough guidelines that are likely to lead to correct conclusions more often than to wrong ones.
Posted by: pachinko | May 10 2022 19:13 utc | 47


key take away point
"So net net: trust no one. Look at every single piece if information as if the source is lying, and critique it. Use this critique to identify what you think are credible sources, but continually check what those sources say as well."

extract in full

There is no hard and fast rule for determining reality vs bullshit, but here are some guidelines:

1) Is the news source credible? This isn't a reputation issue, this is a past performance issue. For me, any source that coughs up garbage twice in a row is forever contaminated and unreliable.
2) Is the breadth and depth of information consistent? I.e. if Russia is losing - why is NATO saying 0 Russian soldiers died between mid-March (when they said 15000 dead) and end of April (when they said 15000 dead again). As you can see, clearly something is not consistent here in this example. Similarly: if there are dead Russian soldiers and destroyed tanks everywhere, where are the pics? Sites like Oryx have been very poor credibility due to their posting of obviously Ukrainian gear labeled as Russian, the same vehicle counted multiple times via different camera angles/times of day, outright fakes from video games, etc etc. Similarly, spectacularly failing Russian military should be accompanied by lots of videos of dead soldiers, surrendered soldiers etc.
3) Is secondary information consistent? For example: if Russia is losing so badly - why are they consistently progressing in terms of clearing out Mariupol, and encircling the Donbas cauldron? Scott Ritter, among others, has also pointed out that it is highly inconsistent that Russia is losing if they - by even NATO reports - are attacking Ukraine with a numerical disadvantage of under 1 to 1 vs. doctrinal 3 to 1 or greater attacker vs. defender ratio.
4) Are claims based on fact or bullshit? The frequent Western MSM reports of "Russia advance stalling" or "Russia behind schedule" or "Russia fails to execute goal of X" - these are all failures based upon some sort of public plan. Does NATO really know what the plan is? The answer is: extremely unlikely based upon public pronouncements by US and EU generals and analysts prior to 2/24/2022.

Note that this doesn't mean Russia hasn't suffered reverses or has been perfect; what it means is that - at least to me - the yakety coming out of MSM is based on bullshit whereas what little we do know from the Russian side is based on Russian MoD announcements and numerous videos posted.

So net net: trust no one. Look at every single piece if information as if the source is lying, and critique it. Use this critique to identify what you think are credible sources, but continually check what those sources say as well.

For example: Scott Ritter has been right and/or sensible about a lot of things, but he has also made both outright errors and incorrect assumptions. Errors include thinking Lira was dead; that the initial "military operation" was shock and awe; that Russia is going all the way to Lviv, etc.

The interesting part for me isn't the "who is winning" part.

It is how the West: US and EU will handle when Ukraine loses.

What the definition of this "losing" is, is still indeterminate but we can safely say that it will include the excision of all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts; all of the Ukrainian coast shadowing Crimea; and some section of Ukraine north of Donetsk. Will it include Odessa and all access to the Black Sea? Will it include Kharkiv? Will Scott Ritter be right and progress will go all the way to Lviv? Only time will tell.
Posted by: c1ue | May 10 2022 20:16 utc | 62


a couple of other outtakes

The problem is that while we may describe these elements as "systems," they are not in fact engineered rational "systems." Immanuel Wallerstein described a field of study which he called world systems theory. Key to his work is the understanding that at a certain level the "structure" departs from being a planned rationalist engineered entity and begins to take on a life of its own. It begins to function as a form of living organism and becomes unpredictable.
Posted by: Sushi | May 10 2022 19:36 utc | 54


My only real piece of advice is that the best tool for analyzing US foreign policy is to assume projection. If the US says some country is doing something, you’ve got a solid 75% probability that that is what the US is doing. I don’t know whether it’s because we lie to ourselves first to lie to the world or if we think everyone is just that dumb. But it’s been consistent for decades.
Posted by: Lex | May 10 2022 19:54 utc | 57

source page ref
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraine-open-thread-2022-63.html#comments

[Henosis Sage]

"Pertubations in the consistency are symptomatic of concocted narrative."

Couldn't say it better myself.

Humans leave patterns wherever they go.
It's in their nature/dna to do so.

No exceptions!

[Tisra Til]

On Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 9:07:35 AM UTC-5, Henosis Sage wrote:
> "Lies are all around you, develop a better bullshit detector."
>
> Bill Maher

True that. It’s like viruses and bacteria. You can’t see em, but they’re always there. Lurking in the shadows, waiting for the bugle call to enter and wreak havoc.

Cough-cough Gates cough- cough 😷