Argumentum ad populum
Etznab
In logic, an argumentum ad populum (Latin: "appeal
to the people") is a fallacious argument that concludes
a proposition to be true because many or all people
believe it; it alleges: "If many believe so, it is so."
This type of argument is known by several names,[1]
including appeal to the masses, appeal to belief,
appeal to the majority, appeal to the people, argument
by consensus, authority of the many, and bandwagon
fallacy, and in Latin by the names argumentum ad
populum ("appeal to the people"), argumentum ad
numerum ("appeal to the number"), and consensus
gentium ("agreement of the clans"). It is also the basis
of a number of social phenomena, including communal
reinforcement and the bandwagon effect, the spreading
of various religious beliefs, and of the Chinese proverb
"three men make a tiger".
[....]
The argumentum ad populum is a red herring and
genetic fallacy. It appeals on probabilistic terms; given
that 75% of a population answer A to a question where
the answer is unknown, the argument states that it is
reasonable to assume that the answer is indeed A. In
cases where the answer can be known but is not known
by a questioned entity, the appeal to majority provides
a possible answer with a relatively high probability of
correctness.
[....]
This fallacy is similar in structure to certain other
fallacies that involve a confusion between the just-
ification of a belief and its widespread acceptance
by a given group of people. When an argument uses
the appeal to the beliefs of a group of supposed experts,
it takes on the form of an appeal to authority; if the ap-
peal is to the beliefs of a group of respected elders or
the members of one's community over a long period of
time, then it takes on the form of an appeal to tradition.
One who commits this fallacy may assume that in-
dividuals commonly analyze and edit their beliefs and
behaviors. This is often not the case (see conformity).
[....]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_common_consent
*****************************************************************
To con-form or not to con-form? That is the question,
IMO. To the beliefs of others. Including the "church".
Etznab
wernertrp
But remember:
argumentum ad populum
is not "Gesunder Menschenverstand"
common sense - a little horse sense.
Etznab
>
> Nice post, much truth in that one, especially during this age of
> Facebook, Mass Media, Corruption, and Spin Zones
>
> This may be a good example of what an independently minded person can
> look like when NOT engrossed in the argumentum ad populum or self-
> delusional power and self-righteousness.
>
> America on the Edge of Chaos
> 17 Aug 2010, 11:00
> Throughout history the rise and fall of empires isn't slow or
> cyclical, as we like to think, but arrhythmic...it mostly happens
> very, very suddenly. America is a superpower on the edge of chaos,
> according to economic historian and author Niall Ferguson. US debt
> levels, he says, and its unwillingness to address the problem, has put
> it in the same category as other great empires which have collapsed
> throughout the ages.
>
> Ferguson argues the world is changing. There's the rise of
> authoritarian China as a super-power; a Keynesian president leading a
> weakened United States; the re-emergence of democratic India as a
> great power; the continued decline of Japan; and the probability of
> continued global economic instability ahead.
>
> Is the rise and fall of empires cyclical or arrhythmic? How does
> economic profligacy - whether the result of arrogance or naivety -
> contribute to the downfall of civilisations? Not to be missed, the
> address will offer a timely review of primacy, leadership, and the
> complex factors behind the rise and fall of great powers and
> civilisations.
>
> Niall Ferguson delivered the annual John Bonython Lecture as guest of
> the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney.
>
> Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire
> (London, Allen Lane/Penguin Press, 2004; also published in the U.S. as
> Colossus: The Price of America’s Empire, translated into Dutch,
> German, Italian and Spanish)http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/General.aspx?pageid=16
>
> Book extract & Talk by Niall Ferguson
> Text, Audio and videohttp://www.abc.net.au/tv/bigideas/stories/2010/08/17/2984171.htm
>
> Live and learn, or just Live. Doesn't really matter you know. ;-))
Something struck me as remarkable the last couple weeks
as the subject of U.S. National debt came up. The amount
for the U.S. national debt and projected war costs. I believe
they were both around 13 trillion dollars (or more)!
When the subject comes up about where to cut back, they
say the cuts need to come from non-military spending. This
seems futile. IMO.
To cut from domestic spending (schools and health care,
etc.), but not from military spending seems ridiculous.
"The United States just passed a dubious milestone:
Government debt surged to an all-time high, topping
$14 trillion - $43,000 each for everyone in the country. [....]
Nearly half of today's national debt was run up in just the
past six years.
"It soared from $7.6 trillion in January 2005 as President
George W. Bush began his second term to $10.6 trillion
the day Obama was inaugurated and to $14.02 trillion now.
"The period has seen two major wars and the deepest
economic downturn since the 1930s.
"With a $1.7 trillion deficit in budget year 2010 alone, and
the government on track to spend $1.3 trillion more this
year than it takes in, annual budget deficits are adding
roughly $4 billion a day to the national debt. Put another way,
the government is borrowing 41 cents for every dollar it spends."
[Based on: A.P. article (Debt blows past $14 trillion, pressuring
Congress), p. A4, S.L.P.D., 01/16/11]
Adding roughly $4 billion a day to the national debt? Where
have I seen that before?
"[....] The National Debt has continued to increase an
average of $4.16 billion per day since September 28, 2007!
Concerned? Then tell Congress and the White House!"
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
How much does the war cost anyhow? A recent article:
"Perpetual War is Expensive
"We’ve been militarily involved in the Persian Gulf region now
for 20 years. Experts have predicted that the cost of this con-
tinuous and expanding war will reach 6 trillion dollars. [....]"
[Based on HuntingtonNews.Net article (Perpetual War is
Expensive), Saturday, January 22, 2011 - 17:54 CONGRESS-
MAN RON PAUL
http://www.huntingtonnews.net/1008
America on the edge of chaos? Sudden and unexpected?
That last word reminds me about the planet Uranus. Was it
sudden and unexpected after Uranus entered Aries? in -
no, not 2010-2011, but 1928-1929 and the bottom fell out?
1928 - Uranus in Aries - January 14th, 1928: "The planet
Uranus (Orbital period roughly 84 Earth years.) enters the
sign of Aries."
*Link: http://www.astro.com/swisseph/ae/1900/ae_1928.pdf
Uranus was in Aries during 1929, apparently.
http://www.astro.com/swisseph/ae/1900/ae_1929.pdf
And even if one doesn't agree with astrology, there is still
an orbital period - which means that Uranus has returned
to a "place" it hasn't been since The Great Depression!
But no, the current financial crisis (etc.) has nothing to do
with Uranus? Has nothing to do with military spending run
amuck? Has nothing to do with karmic dept?
Yeah. And the latest trends in weather extremes have no-
thing to do with global warming either :)
Etznab
Kinpa
its true, this empire is on its way out... john maynard keynes be
damned9along with any president foolish enough to follow his
policies), he AND his economic nonsense...
Etznab
> his Historical research, was that even back to Roman times? etc ..
> civilisations have all fallen after a trigger of financial collapse of
> the power-base .... IOW Bankrupt -- so I am that sure that one could
> really place such a burden of fault onto one man's ideas of economic
> theory or how others have used those ideas over recent decades .... I
> think there is a bigger over-riding pattern repeat going on here, a
> natural human-karmic pattern that operates way beyond and above
> whatever the prevailing Political Ideology or Economic structures may
> happen to be at the time.
>
> but not sure, just my gut feel atm. thx sean
Far be it for me to say this, but I suspect the cause
is religious and it's like what happens to a computer
infected by a virus. Slowly things get worse and they
compound themselves until an unavoidable crash do
to ignorance that a virus even existed.
What do I mean? I mean there are many religions in
the world with many members. People say they all
come from the same source, are all basically saying
the same thing in different ways. However, if people
were given a computer (complete with software) for
(and representing) dogma for each and every religion
in the world I think people would find they differ in a
number of ways. Each one having certain computer
language and code written in, so to speak. I think a
person operating different computer systems from
different religions would encounter various forms of
monitoring and updates. Furthermore they would
probably have to guard against attack from other
computers (other religions).
That was somewhat analogous.
Basically, many different things are working in the
world today and people are getting along. However
SOME THINGS ARE NOT WORKING.
And not only are some things not working, but the
same things have not worked for ages! Just like a
broken machine, or like an infected computer not
running at optimum level for years.
There is a saying I recall. If you have a problem &
know about it, that is not a problem. if you have a
problem and don't know about it, that is a problem!
So what is it about religions that is NOT known?
Did someone, or something, intentionally rewrite
the original code? So to speak?
I think this is how it happens. Like a virus, people
infect other people. The code in a virus rewriting
each person's DNA to serve a viral purpose, and
potentially exploit the host.
Religion and religious beliefs encompass regions
from Heaven to Hell and all places in between. In
a way, religion is the one potential "virus" where
every aspect of the universe (including how it all
was created) could be infected. One's viewpoint
of all these, at least.
In short, religion is the ideal medium for potential
mass human enslavement. Not only enslavement
on the material level, but mentally & emotionally
as well.
If nobody believes that any of what I say is true,
go ahead and ask questions in church. And go
ahead and criticize the pseudo man-made non
literal events from other religions that a majority
of the congregation take to be absolutely true.
If not in modern times, go look at people in the
past who asked questions and critically sought
for the truth.
Consider the consequences.
And make sure their is not a bull's eye painted
on the back of your shirt - along with the word
TERRORIST!
If none of that works and you still don't get what
I mean, look at history and tabulate how many
people were killed, maimed and tortured in the
name of religion. Add to that how many dollars,
how much land and wealth were used to finance
wars where people from one religion fought and
attempted to dominate / subjugate another.
Years ago I heard a statistic that about one in
ten people was Muslim. Recently I heard that
by 2030 (I believe) a quarter of all people in the
world will be Muslim. One in four people!
Are all the Christians and people from other
religions / countries happy about the prospect?
Especially when some people can't have many
wives and a hundred, or more children?
Look at where the United States ( "the world's
largest superpower") is positioned militarily to-
day. Look at how much money that power has
used (and is using - in spite of money needed
closer at home) to check a growing terrorist
threat.
I have four words to sum up what I mean for
this last section.
Quoting the Kinks:
PARANOIA WILL DESTROY YA ....!
Etznab
P.S.What is the most money spent on today?
And what is more costlier than endless war?
Rich
I know doom and gloom, and such paranoia is a popular argument, however...
Human resources - 67.3% of last years budget. National defense 19.3%
http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy11/sheets/hist03z1.xls
Jasmyn
Rich, can't say I've agreed with some things we've done premptively.
And it's a shame we have to worry at all about defenses instead of
more noble ways to spend money. And those dern pesky CBO figures.....
http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/08/iraq_the_war_that_broke_us_not.html
Jasmyn
Rich
Hi Jaz,
I'm not sure that agreement on war will ever be found unless all humanity
became robots, and then it's questionable which way it would go. From what I
saw even the GPO and the CBO figures don't quite agree.
Got this in my inbox today. It speaks to the Subject.
"The loneliness of liberation comes of not being able to take sides on
issues of
the day in the humanistic world, or to find security in the crowds; of no
longer
believing that the rules of the game are the laws of nature. It is the
transcending of the ego into the security of the greater individuality. This
greater individuality is always lonely because all those who have not
entered
into it will attack it in ignorance."
The Shariyat-Ki-Sugmad, Book 2, Paul Twitchell, chapter 2, pg. 260
Rich~~~~~~~~Sailing the Cosmic Sea~~~~~
Jasmyn
>
> Hi Jaz,
>
> I'm not sure that agreement on war will ever be found unless all humanity
> became robots, and then it's questionable which way it would go. From what I
> saw even the GPO and the CBO figures don't quite agree.
>
> Got this in my inbox today. It speaks to the Subject.
>
> "The loneliness of liberation comes of not being able to take sides on
> issues of
> the day in the humanistic world, or to find security in the crowds; of no
> longer
> believing that the rules of the game are the laws of nature. It is the
> transcending of the ego into the security of the greater individuality. This
> greater individuality is always lonely because all those who have not
> entered
> into it will attack it in ignorance."
>
> The Shariyat-Ki-Sugmad, Book 2, Paul Twitchell, chapter 2, pg. 260
>
> Rich~~~~~~~~Sailing the Cosmic Sea~~~~~
Excellent quote, Rich, the ECK is always giving us Its teachings.
Jasmyn