The Coming Superbrain / S D Rodrian
SDR
> Several years ago the artificial-intelligence
> pioneer Raymond Kurzweil took the idea one
> step further in his 2005 book, “The Singularity
> Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology.”
> He sought to expand Moore’s Law to
> encompass more than just processing power
> and to simultaneously predict with great
> precision the arrival of post-human evolution,
> which he said would occur in 2045.
> In Dr. Kurzweil’s telling, rapidly increasing
> computing power in concert with cyborg
> humans would then reach a point when
> machine intelligence not only surpassed
> human intelligence but took over the process
> of technological invention, with unpredictable
> consequences.
Even within humanity there are two very distinct
and telling forms of intelligence: Real Intelligence
and Cleverness. [I have often said one cannot
beat a clever man at checkers--a computer is a
super-clever "being" but it has zero Real
Intelligence.] Perhaps the "genuinely" most
intelligent people in human history have never
done anything "clever" enough to achieve any
fame, and have lived out their lives in secluded
happiness (as opposed to nerve-racking fame/
celebrity). Even if the world were taken over
by Terminator-like super-computers, I believe
Really Intelligent people would still manage
to find a way to out-wit the "clever" machines
and continue to find ways to live out lives of
secluded happiness ... It is the hallmark of
real intelligence that it finds a way to adapt,
while those with limited Real Intelligence (and
no matter how clever--true of even computers)
must be placed in nearly-perfect environments
to function comfortably. Certainly, I cannot
imagine that the really intelligent would waste
their time engaging anyone/anything in pointless
contests for world/or limited supremacy!
If there's anything the truly intelligent understand
it is ... the staggering miracle that is any kind of
existence (at all, let alone a conscious one). That
is more than enough for any really intelligent being.
> Capitalist William Joy, a co-founder of Sun
> Microsystems [writing against people who
> predict a very utopian future ... the
> development of superhuman machines:
> Dr. Kurzweil envisions “uploading,” or the
> idea that the contents of our brain and
> thought processes can somehow be translated
> into a computing environment, making a
> form of immortality possible] believes that
> “I wasn't’t saying we would be supplanted by
> something. I think a catastrophe is more likely.”
Ha! Monkeys are more likely to develop more
efficient ways to throw their feces about... than
to develop any sort of technological Utopia.
And, for better or worse, we are monkeys.
Pn the other hand, it is still unresolved whether
we are intelligent enough to destroy ourselves.
S D Rodrian
http://poems.sdrodrian.com
http://physics.sdrodrian.com
http://MP3s.sdrodrian.com
All religions are local.
Only science is universal.
.
If you want to rob people of their money
it's not a gun (you need) but God: Nobody
has yet come up with a better weapon than
God with which to rob people of their money.
--S D Rodrian
.
Piet de Arcilla
"Uploading your brain" is dubious metaphysics. However, computers are
going to become something we can't imagine or control very shortly.
See http://bluebrain.epfl.ch/
Mark
>
> All religions are local.
> Only science is universal.
> .
>
> If you want to rob people of their money
> it's not a gun (you need) but God: Nobody
> has yet come up with a better weapon than
> God with which to rob people of their money.
> --S D Rodrian
>
>
> - Show quoted text -
Intelligence is not knowledge.
If you could read all the books in the world it
would not give you intelligence. Intelligence is
something very subtle; it has no anchorage.
It comes into being only when you understand
the total process of the mind-- not the mind
according to some philosopher or teacher, but
your own mind. Your mind is the result of all
humanity, and when you understand it you don't
have to read a single book, because the mind
contains the whole knowledge of the past.
So intelligence comes into being with the
understanding of yourself; and you can understand
yourself only in relation to the world of people,
things and ideas. Intelligence is not something
that you can aquire, like learning; it arises with
great revolt, that is, when there is no fear...which
means, really, when there is a sense of love.
For when there is no fear, there is love.
---
Mark
danger...@gmail.com
> Pn the other hand, it is still unresolved whether
> we are intelligent enough to destroy ourselves.
I think we can be as certain of this as anything. Sometime in the next
century, Earth's population is going to put such a strain on resources
that society in general will start to break down. It will show up as
wars, starvation -- the usual Four Guys of the Apocalypse, but the
root cause will be overpopulation. All forces are acting to cause
population increase. There are no significant forces acting to reduce
population.
1. Climate change will likely reduce the arable land of the earth,
further compressing the population. Climatic contrast between
equatorial and boreal areas is probably going to increase, further
reducing habitable land area.
2. Religious extremism isn't going to go away soon. It's likely to get
worse, as a simplistic form of relief for folks stressed by hunger,
conflict, and overcrowding. It's also a cool rationale for destroying
huge segments of competing populations. It's too useful not to be
exploited to the max.
3. Increased stress and insecurity will cause folks to revert to a
more tribal organization, with loyalty invested in clans and family
groups rather than nations, ie, competition will descend to smaller
and smaller groupings, ie, lots of small wars, as well as increased
crime.
4. As petroleum reserves are exhausted and energy costs skyrocket, the
ability to grow and transport food will decrease.
5. A population stressed by hunger and overcrowding, and with reduced
social organization, will be far more subject to disease.
Because these forces generally constitute positive feedback loops,
there will be a tipping point where things will suddenly go to pieces
very quickly. Not that much can be done about it before it reaches
that point, but it will take most people by surprise when it happens.
This catastrophe is unlikely to wipe out humanity completely. Some
folks will certainly survive to launch another cycle.
DB
Piet de Arcilla
<dangerousb...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On May 25, 5:56 pm, SDR <sdrodr...@sdrodrian.com> wrote:
>
> > Pn the other hand, it is still unresolved whether
> > we are intelligent enough to destroy ourselves.
>
> I think we can be as certain of this as anything. Sometime in the next
> century, Earth's population is going to put such a strain on resources
> that society in general will start to break down. It will show up as
> wars, starvation -- the usual Four Guys of the Apocalypse, but the
> root cause will be overpopulation. All forces are acting to cause
> population increase. There are no significant forces acting to reduce
> population.
It's generally accepted that the rate of population growth is going
down and that Earth's population will level off fairly soon. The UN
says at around 9 billion sometime around 2050.
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/WPP2006_Highlights_rev.pdf
Mark
... There are no significant forces acting to reduce
> population.
> DB
We saw what happened when alcoholic beverages
were prohibited.
So how would one enforce a ...
---
Mark
danger...@gmail.com
> It's generally accepted that the rate of population growth is going
> down and that Earth's population will level off fairly soon. The UN
> says at around 9 billion sometime around 2050.
>
Let's hope they're right, but the UN's batting average is not stellar.
Even a stabilized population is still going to run up against
declining resources.
James Lovelock says that the earth's carrying capacity could be 1
billion people by 2100.
DB