Wars of Religion
Brian Mattys
Perhaps Michel used his skills as a political scientist to forecast the
event, not his 'divine' contacts.
First, at some point in the future, the king would have to arrange a
special occassion - an opportunity to gather the Prot leaders together
in one place. In other words, he would set a trap. Now, the marriage
(dynastic alliance?) of Henri IV and Margot (both born in 1553) was
inevitable, but Michel was perceptive enough to know that could not
occur until their year of majority - therefore he expected it to happen
c.1572-74!
04.06 D'habits nouveaux apres faicte la treuve,
Malice tramme & machination:
Premier mourra qui en sera la preuve,
Couleur venise insidiation.
This pertains to religious wars in France (new habits for Huguenots).
The one who discovers the conspiracy (of which Nostr is fully cognizant)
is the first to die. This is very complicated, because there is this
Spanish plot to destroy the Valois kings,and there is a counter-plot to
undermine the infl of the Catholic league.
04.10 Le jeune prince accuse faulsement,
Mettra en trouble le camp & en querelles:
Meutry le chef pour le soustenement,
Sceptre appaiser: puis guerir escrouelles.
This sounds like that moment of decision after Day of Barricades. The
prince is Navarre, falsely accused of being a heretic (from Prot pov).
The leader who is murdered is Henri de Guise. Suddenly, Henri III
snaps out of lethargy and becomes a decisive leader, until Clement's
dagger finds the target. The year doesn't matter, because Doc doesn't
know for sure. From his pov, Navarre is the young prince, a man
destined for greatness.
04.15 D'ou pensera faire venir famine,
De la viendra le ressaisement:
L'oeil de la mer par avare canine
Pour de l'un l'autre donra huyle, froment.
Nostr perceptive enough to know that Philip II was a covetous dog, who
fomented all kinds of trouble in France during the later Valois years,
right into the transition period of Navarre. This Q could describe
siege of a Catholic stronghold getting help from Spain.
04.19 Devant Rouan d'Insubres mis le siege,
Par terre & mer enfermees les passages:
D'Haynault, & Fladres, de Gad & ceux de Liege,
Par dons laenees raviront les rivages.
Rouen captured by Duke Parma (Guise vs Navarre 1592). The key word is
laenees= cloaks. Note the refs to Belgium. Were those cities secretly
(or openly) helping the city? Advance knowledge of this event is
astonishing.
04.20 Paix uberte long temps lieu lovera:
Part tout son regne desert la fleur de lys:
Corps morts d'eau, terre la lon aportera,
Sperants vain heur d'estre la enfeuelis
The Doc hopes that a great king like Navarre will restore peace & order
to France, and to some degree this is achieved. Could the burial
question here pertain to Henri III, who could not be buried at St Denis
until later?
04.21 Le changement sera fort difficile,
Cite, province au change gain sera:
Coeur haut, prudent mis, chasse luy
habile, Mer, terre, people son estat
changera.
The change is obvious to one an all, destined to be achieved by Edict of
Nantes. It was absolutely necessary for the Prots to succeed - if for
no other reason than to break the power of the Vatican. The prudent one
is Mayenne, the cunning one is Navarre. The Doc knew that Navarre would
win in the end. The good guys always do.
04.22 La grand copie qui sera deschassee,
Dans un moment sera besoing au Roy,
La foy promise de loing sera faulsee,
Nud se verra en pitieux desarroy.
Now assume the Doc knows that Navarre will one day be king. He must
fill in the gaps along the way. Relig wars are a given, and Nostr would
have a pretty good idea how the teams would look. Did he conclude from
a very superficial knowledge of young Philip II that he was not a
reliable ally, and eventualy the League would find itself 'up the
creek'? So much depended on Navarre's military prowess (and penchant
for gambling), which would have been tough to predict, unless these
traits were 'cultivated'. In this Q, the king employs the very army he
has vanquished!
04.35 Le feu estaint, les vierges trahiront
La plus ganr part de la bande nouvelle:
Fouldre a fer, lance les seulz Roy, garderont
Etrusque & Corse, de nuict gorge allumelle.
Nostr knew that Henri Navarre would have to make some provision for
Prots (the new band). We know that he had enemies in N Italy, but he
was also supported by money from Florence. There seems to be a plan
here to kill a king (Henri II), and it would appear that some of the
guards are involved.
04.45 Par conflit Roy, regne abandonnera,
Le plus grand chef faillira au besoing:
Mors profliges peu en rechapera,
Tous destranches, un en sera tesmoing.
After Day of Barricades, Henri III fled Paris - never to return. It
would be unfair to suggest that Navarre 'failed' him, as he was in no
position to save the king. But perception is everything. The Doc knew
that Henri III would make it to the throne, and he also knew that the
reign was doomed to failure. But could he have known that the City would
evict the last Valois king?
04.46 Bien defendu le faict par excellence,
Garde toi Tours de ta proche ruine:
Londres & Nantes par Reims sera defense
Ne passe outre au temps de la bruine.
Navarre called assembly of the Estates at Tours in spring of 1590. This
parlement was opposed by the League and the pope, both pawns of Philip
II. Navarre depended on English support at this time, as a few towns in
France went over to his side for the right price. Tours suffered most
when Edict of Nantes was revoked in the 17th. Was the Doc making his
guess based on a hunch that the Prot city would stick out its neck for
Navarre?
04.49 Devant le peuple sang sera respandu,
Que de haut ciel ne viendra esloigner:
Mais d'un long temps ne sera entendu,
L'esprit d'un seul le viendra tesmoigner.
Again, this could be Bart's Day Event. Nostr may not have known when,
but he seems to known that a trap would be laid to draw Prots to Paris.
Was Doc trying to warn them? But how can you sound the alarm without
giving details? He knows that Charles will give the okay to Guise man.
In a sense, Navarre is the witness, although he was confined to palace.
Condee also survived.
What if someone (like Catherine herself) told Michel that a trap was
being set for the Prots on Paris? How could it be done? How do you
lure their leaders to a city they despise and fear?
-Brian Mattys