Rare Earth: So sad

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JTEM is Magic

Sep 24, 2022, 1:25:27 AMSep 24

The Rare Earth hypothesis might be true, even if it

Seriously. Consider this:


The earth is usually pegged at something like 4.5
billion years old. But the genus Homo has only
existed for like 3 million years as far as we know --
and that's rounding up -- so our genus, not our
species but our genus (habilis, erectus, heidelberg
man, neanderthals, etc) has only existed for LESS
THAN 1/1,100th of the history of the planet. Then
you consider the average lifespan of a species here
on earth. It's usually given as a million years but
let's call it 2 million.

There. That's your window. Two intelligent,
technological species have to exist with the exact
same 2 million year period -- OUT OF THOUSANDS
OF MILLIONS OF YEARS -- to even have a theoretical
chance of meeting. Meaning...

Planets where intelligent, technological species
evolve don't have to be rare at all. They can be
common enough but, unless they beats all odds
and exist at the same time they can never meet.

So what's the best way to search for them?

Are their techno signatures, the signs or even
"Residue" of a past technological civilization, that
could last millions or even a billion years?

Can such signs exist WITHOUT landing something
on the planet & searching for them?

Would bio signatures be the way to go?

There are numerous scenarios where a "Higher
life form" can go extinct but leave behind microbes
at the very least. Or even plants for that matter.

Even if a technologically advanced society has gone
completely exist, there's still an excellent chance that
some form of life persists on their planet. And if an
extraterrestrial society does exist then bio signatures
certainly do. So I'm not at all convinced that techno
signatures are the way to go here.

Secondly, let's assume that there's NOT extinct!

Travel only 1% of our galaxy in distance away from the
earth and you have only slightly more than 500 years
to wait until the first coal mine opens here. Techno
signatures are real for you, but bio signatures are.

So, again, TIME is a major issue here. At the speed of
light, half our galaxy or more is at least 50,000 years
in the past. From their perspective, humans haven't
even learned to dig wells for water. Not yet. Not for tens
of thousands of years.

The oldest musical instrument ever found, here on earth,
isn't that old. So they're looking at us well before writing,
well before metallurgy, well before music and already
there's a greater than zero chance we could be extinct
before the detect our first techno signatures...

Doesn't mean life is rare. We'd still have multiple planets
where life emerged only it happened thousands, tens of
thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions or even billions
of years apart. Still, not a rare event.

A rare ALIGNMENT perhaps, but not a rare event.

So "Rare Earth" can be very true, in a sense, even if it is

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