Anti-Gun Democrats Caught Lying About US Guns in Mexico
Patriot Games
3. THE SITUATION IN MEXICO:
A. The Mexican State is engaged in an increasingly violent, internal
struggle against heavily armed narco-criminal cartels that have
intimidated the public, corrupted much of law enforcement, and created
an environment of impunity to the law.
• Thousands are being murdered each year. Drug production, addiction,
and smuggling are rampant. The struggle for power among drug cartels
has resulted in chaos in the Mexican states and cities along the
US-Mexico border. Drug-related assassinations and kidnappings are now
common-place occurrences throughout the country.
• Squad-sized units of the police and Army have been tortured,
murdered, and their decapitated bodies publicly left on display. The
malignancy of drug criminality now contaminates not only the 2000
miles of cross-border US communities but stretches throughout the
United States in more than 295 US cities.
B. Mexico’s senior leadership – President Felipe Calderon, Attorney
General Eduardo Medina Mora, and SSP Secretary of Federal Police
leader Genaro Luna are confronting the criminal drug cartels that have
subverted state and municipal authorities and present a mortal threat
to the rule of law across Mexico. The Mexican Armed Forces are being
increasingly relied on by the Federal Government given the
shortcomings of civilian law enforcement agencies.
• The Calderon Administration took power with a tenuous political
legitimacy following their less than 1% victory over the PRD in a
bitterly contested election. Senior Mexican political and security
officials have showed remarkable leadership, courage, strength, and
dedication as they seek to assert the rule of law throughout the state
and defeat the drug cartels.
• Senior government officials are taking enormous personal risk; the
drug cartels have demonstrated their willingness to murder political
leaders and law enforcement officers who threaten their well being.
The commitment of these senior Mexican Government officials to
reestablish the rule of law will become a matter of historical pride
to their nation if they succeed.
C. The United States has provided only modest support to the
Government of Mexico to date. The bold $400 million/year Merida
initiative conceived by President Bush with both Canadian and Mexican
Presidential participation was barely approved by the US Congress
after a divisive and insulting debate.
• The proposed U.S. Government spending in support of the Government
of Mexico is a drop in the bucket compared to what we have spent in
Iraq and Afghanistan (these foreign wars have consumed $700 billion
dollars and resulted in 36,000 US military killed and wounded). Yet
the stakes in Mexico are enormous. We cannot afford to have a narco
state as a neighbor.
D. The incoming Obama Administration must immediately focus on the
dangerous and worsening problems in Mexico, which fundamentally
threaten US national security. Before the next eight years are past –
the violent, warring collection of criminal drug cartels could
overwhelm the institutions of the state and establish de facto control
over broad regions of northern Mexico.
• A failure by the Mexican political system to curtail lawlessness and
violence could result of a surge of millions of refugees crossing the
US border to escape the domestic misery of violence, failed economic
policy, poverty, hunger, joblessness, and the mindless cruelty and
injustice of a criminal state.
E. Mexico is not confronting dangerous criminality--- it is fighting
for survival against narco-terrorism.
• A terrible tragedy is going to take place in the coming decade if we
don’t closely ally ourselves with the courageous Mexican leadership of
the Calderon Administration---- and develop a resourced strategy
appropriate for the dangers we face.
4. THE LEADERSHIP CONTEXT OF THE STRUGGLE: MEXICO MATTERS:
A. Mexico is a huge nation three times the size of massive Texas with
a population of a 110 million people. It is the 12th largest economy
in the world and the largest Spanish speaking nation in the world.
Mexico City at 20 million people is one of the largest urban
concentrations on the globe. Mexico is the 8th largest crude oil
exporter and has gigantic known reserves of natural gas. It has a GDP
of just under a trillion dollars.
B. Mexico deals historically with crushing US ignorance of their vital
economic contributions to the US. The US in turn deals historically
with a Mexican official political system which has a paranoid fixation
on the perceived injustice of US arrogance and imperialism ---and
animosity toward bi-national cooperation with any policy initiatives
dealing with border issues, water, migration, and security or law
enforcement cooperation.
C. Mexico is arguably the most important foreign partner of the United
States. The United States is unarguably the most important foreign
partner for Mexico. Mexico supplies a third of our imported oil. We
account for 47% of all foreign direct investment in Mexico. 18,000
Mexican companies have US investment. 50% of their imports come from
the US. 82% of their exports go to the US. Mexican nationals
constitute approximately half of the 12 million undocumented aliens in
the US, many who have found employment in and are critical to our
agricultural system, meat packing industry, restaurants, day care
centers, and the construction sector. THERE ARE A MILLION LEGAL BORDER
CROSSINGS PER DAY along our 2000 mile shared, and largely unmarked and
unfenced frontier. There are probably a million illegal border
crossings a year.
D. Mexico is somewhat unstable, extremely violent, and just emerging
from the 71 year autocratic governance of the PRI political party.
Thanks to the vision and courage of President Ernesto Zedillo and the
follow-on leadership of Vicente Fox--- Mexico is now painfully
building the institutions of a democratic state under the rule of
law…with a free press… and a commitment to human rights. They have a
difficult 25 year process ahead of them to consolidate a democratic
state.
E. The December 2006 inauguration of the second consecutive PAN party
President Felipe Calderon represents important momentum to a modern,
democratic state. With the support of a PAN plurality in both the
Senate and the Chamber of Deputies---Calderon has ushered in
unprecedented cooperation with the US on justice and law enforcement
issues. He has built upon the series of crucial political reforms
begun under President Fox. He has launched a serious attempt to
reclaim the rule of law from the chaos of the drug cartels.
F. President Calderon faces these daunting internal problems with
inadequate resources and weak institutions. A general sense of
impunity from the law and pervasive corruption remain problems,
particularly at state and local levels. There is massive
underemployment of 25%+ -- and grossly inequitable distribution of
income. Only 3% of the land is both arable and irrigated. Wages are
low. There are few opportunities for the largely Amerindian population
in the southern states. There is lack of clean water and terrible
deforestation. The level of kidnappings and murder has paralyzed the
population. There are high levels of violence against women, criminal
intimidation of journalists (28 reporters killed since 2001),
trafficking in persons, and extensive child labor.
G. However, based on my years of watching Mexico--- the bottom line is
this: the population is extremely hard working, humble, gracious,
spiritually devout, patriotic, and family oriented. The culture and
art are rich and fiercely admired by the people. The senior elite
political and military leadership is world class---broadly educated,
sophisticated, multi-lingual, and very easy to deal with. At a
people-to-people level the affection and cooperation between the
Mexican and US populations are unbelievably strong. (More than 500,000
Americans live in Mexico.)
In sum, Mexico and its people are a joy to visit--- and a trusted
partner in business cooperation. Mexican and Central American labor is
a central pillar of US economic strength. However, Mexico is
fundamentally at risk from drug-fueled crime which is so powerful that
it could threaten the viability of the state.
5. THE PROBLEM IS DRUGS:
A. Mexico is on the edge of the abyss---it could become a narco-state
in the coming decade. Chronic drug consumption has doubled since 2002
to 500,000 addicts. Possibly 5% or 3.5 million people consume illegal
drugs. (the US figure is 8.3% or 20.4 million). Since 2002--- past
month Mexican national drug consumption has increased by 30% and
cocaine use has doubled. The fastest growing addiction rates are among
the 12 to 17 year old population -- and the consumption rates among
women have doubled.
B. Drug criminal behavior is the central threat to the state. Mexico
probably produces 8 metric tons of heroin a year and 10,000 metric
tons of marijuana. 90% of all US cocaine transits Mexico. Mexico is
also the dominant source of methamphetamine production for the US
market. The drug cartels have criminal earnings in excess of $25
billion per year ---and physically repatriate more than $10 billion a
year in bulk cash back into Mexico from the US.
C. The bottom line--- nearly 7000 people murdered in the internal drug
wars since 2006--- 3,985 murdered this year alone through 25 November.
The outgunned Mexican law enforcement authorities face armed criminal
attacks from platoon-sized units employing night vision goggles,
electronic intercept collection, encrypted communications, fairly
sophisticated information operations, sea-going submersibles,
helicopters and modern transport aviation, automatic weapons, RPG’s,
Anti-Tank 66 mm rockets, mines and booby traps, heavy machine guns, 50
cal sniper rifles, massive use of military hand grenades, and the most
modern models of 40mm grenade machine guns.
6. CRIME AND CORRUPTION:
A. The crime rate is staggering. The US State Department notes that
crime in Mexico continues at high levels particularly in Mexico City.
Criminal assaults occur on highways throughout Mexico. Armed street
crime is a serious problem in all the major cities. Robbery and
assault on passengers in taxis are frequent and violent. Mexican
authorities have failed to prosecute numerous crimes committed against
US citizens, including murder and kidnapping. 44% of all murders
through November of this year were of unidentified victims---
primarily because of fear of becoming involved by family and
acquaintances of the deceased.
B. Kidnappings are the cruelest of all crimes. Official statistics
cite 72 kidnappings a month according to the Mexican Attorney General.
However, the Citizen’s Institute for Crime Studies estimates more than
500 kidnappings a month with the overwhelming majority not reported
largely because of lack of trust in the police—or the reality of
police involvement in the crime. Kidnappings are not just targeted on
the rich who live behind a wall of protection. Now even poor Mexicans
present a target for ATM extortion or even death because of
non-payment of small ransoms. (The rates of kidnappings in
Latin-America in general are astronomical…the hemisphere represents 8%
of the global population but accounts for 75% of the total
kidnappings).
• Law enforcement authorities under President Calderon have fought
back with extraordinary measures. More than 7500 individuals are now
in state or Federal prison. 51 kidnapping bands have been dismantled
and 377 victims released. However, the crime wave goes on with many
vulnerable families now seeking sanctuary in US cross-border
communities.
C. Corruption is pervasive and ruins the trust among Mexican law
enforcement institutions at local, state, and Federal level.
Corruption reaches into the US Embassy with a DEA Mexican national
employee recently arrested for being an agent of the Sinaloa Cartel.
He was corrupted by a $450,000.00 bribe. Six high-ranking law
enforcement officials have recently been arrested and the current and
former Director of the Interpol Office in Mexico indicted. (This is a
painful personal reminder of the 1997 arrest of the Mexican Drug Czar,
General Gutierrez Rebollo, discovered to be working as an agent of the
Juarez cartel.)
D. Mexican law enforcement authorities and soldiers face heavily armed
drug gangs with high-powered military automatic weapons. Perhaps 90%
of these weapons are smuggled across the US border. They are
frequently purchased from licensed US gun dealers in Texas, Arizona,
and California. AK-47 assault rifles are literally bought a hundred at
a time and illegally brought into Mexico. Mexican authorities
routinely seize BOXES of unopened automatic military weapons. The
confiscation rates by Mexican law enforcement of hand grenades, RPG’s,
and AK-47’s are at the level of wartime battlefield seizures. It is
hard to understand the seeming indifference and incompetence of US
authorities at state and Federal level to such callous disregard for a
national security threat to a neighboring democratic state. We would
consider it an act of warfare from a sanctuary state if we were the
victim.
The bottom line---the US is ineffective and unresponsive to Mexican
concerns about weapons, bulk cash, and precursor chemicals flowing
south into Mexico from the United States--- with a blow-torch effect
on the security of the Mexican people.
E. The Council on Hemispheric Affairs states that:
“Due to pervasive corruption at the highest levels of the Mexican
Government, and the almost effortless infiltration of the porous
security forces by the cartel, an ultimate victory by the state is
uncertain.”
7. THE SECURITY FORCES:
A. There is no shortage of courage among Mexican Security Forces. More
than 475 police and soldiers have been murdered during the President
Calderon offensive to reclaim the streets and rural areas. More than
218,000 prisoners crowd the 455 penal facilities. Of Mexico’s 390,000
police only 26,000 or 6.8 % are Federal. The 39.8% of the force who
are Municipal Police (more than 2,600 separate police forces) are
badly trained, poorly equipped and frequently corrupt or intimidated.
Essential law enforcement tools are lacking. For example, there is no
National registry of police officers’ nor is there a national registry
of vehicle registrations or license plates.
B. The Mexican people believe the justice system is corrupt and
ineffective. Mexican police regularly obtain information through
torture and prosecutors use this evidence in courts. The suspect is
deemed guilty until proven innocent. Most ominously--- the Mexican
people are losing faith in the system. At the start of the Calderon
Campaign more than 87% supported the President. Now only 67% are in
favor. There is increasing discussion of legalization of drugs—or
acquiescence in the drug trade, which used to be presumed to be a US
not Mexican problem.
C. The Mexican Armed Forces (225,000 personnel) are one of the most
trusted institutions in the nation. In a general sense they are
disciplined, reliable, courageous, and responsive to civilian
leadership. Clearly the Armed Forces are also subject to
penetration--- and also subject to individual intimidation or
corruption. The desertion rate of trained military personnel is also a
significant threat to the state. The heavily armed “Zetas” ---now the
enforcement arm of the Gulf Cartel--- are essentially turn-coat Army
Commandos.
D. The bottom line--- the drug cartels cannot defeat the government
through direct violent confrontation. The Armed Forces in particular
can at any point on the ground or at sea confront and dismantle a
direct threat to the security forces. The most effective tool of the
criminal cartels is narco-terrorism -- and corruption and intimidation
of the populace to convince the political authorities to remain
passive in the face of criminal behavior.
8. THE STRATEGY--- THE WAY AHEAD.
A. President Calderon has charted a bold and heroic path for the
state. His senior law enforcement officer – Secretary Genaro Garcia
Luna – has placed his life on the line. The Federal police motto is
“Ni un paso atras” (not one step back). Hundreds of law enforcement
officers have been murdered. They have seized massive quantities of
contraband from these criminal threat forces. (70,000 kilograms of
cocaine, 3,700 tons of marijuana, $304 million dollars, 28,000
weapons, 2000 hand grenades, 3 million rounds of ammo.) President
Calderon has for the first time in Mexican history boldly used the
tool of extradition to the US. (83 major drug criminals sent north.)
B. The strategy articulated by Mexican Attorney General Eduardo Medina
Mora is to break up the four major drug cartels into 50 smaller
entities and take away their firepower and huge financial resources.
The senior Mexican leadership have tried to organize the ten US and
Mexican Border States to form active cross-border partnerships for law
enforcement and drug prevention cooperation. The Mexicans know a
central piece of their strategy has to be the modernization of the
Mexican justice system and the modernization of the economy.
• President Calderon has committed his government to the “Limpiemos
Mexico” campaign to “clean up Mexico”. This is not rhetoric. They have
energized their departments of Social Development, Public Education,
and Health to be integral parts of this campaign. Finally, there is a
clear understanding that this is an eight-year campaign—not a
short-term surge.
C. Finally—we have the promising US-Mexican Merida Initiative.
However, this vital program is under-funded and slow to be
implemented. Significant cross-border law enforcement and justice
system cooperation remains inadequate.
9. SUMMARY:
A. Much is at stake for future US economic and national security
policy from 2009 through 2017. A stable, economically healthy, and
law-based Mexican neighbor is fundamental to US expectations of
prosperity and peace within North America. The drug menace and drug
addiction is central to much of the US criminal and social malignancy
that has put more than 2 million Americans behind bars, clogged our
courts, and placed enormous burdens on our health system.
B. Now is the time during the opening months of a new US
Administration to jointly commit to a fully resourced major
partnership as political equals of the Mexican government. We must
jointly and respectfully cooperate to address the broad challenges our
two nations face. Specifically, we must support the Government of
Mexico’s efforts to confront the ultra violent drug cartels. We must
do so in ways that are acceptable to the Mexican polity and that take
into account Mexican sensitivities to sovereignty. The United States
Government cannot impose a solution. The political will is present in
Mexico to make the tough decisions that are required to confront a
severe menace to the rule of law and the authority of the Mexican
state. Where our assistance can be helpful, we must provide it. The
challenge is so complex that it will require sustained commitment and
attention at the highest levels of our two governments. We cannot
afford to fail.
Barry R McCaffrey, General USA (Retired)
Adjunct professor of International Affairs
Department of Social Sciences
West Point, New York