Guns and suicide - No Correlation
Patriot Games
Guns and suicide: International perspective
December 15, 2009
Gun control proponents often claim that suicide rates are driven by
firearms availability.
For example, the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence [
http://www.bradycampaign.org/facts/gunviolence ] promotes the �guns
cause suicide� hypothesis. They note that nearly 17,000 people kill
themselves with firearms each year, concluding:
Without stronger, sensible gun laws, thousands upon thousands of
people will continue to die and be injured needlessly each year. The
Brady Campaign fights for sensible gun laws to protect you, your
family, and your community.
If guns cause suicide, international organizations must have some data
proving this claim. Or do they?
The United Nations (UN) recently reaffirmed its commitment to global
civilian disarmament [
http://disarmament.un.org/vote.nsf/e9e05f9ef74d8c7f05256705006e0a60/ba7a9a5b18eb96128525753800558049/$FILE/A%20C%201%2063%20L%2036.pdf
], which began in the mid-1990s, as a way of ensuring worldwide peace
and prosperity:
[T]he international community is more than ever aware of the
importance of such practical disarmament measures, especially with
regard to the growing problems arising from the excessive accumulation
and uncontrolled spread of small arms and light weapons, including
their ammunition, which pose a threat to peace and security and reduce
the prospects for economic development in many regions, particularly
in post-conflict situations�
The Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva, Switzerland
publishes an annual report entitled Small Arms Survey. This
organization doesn�t support civilian firearms ownership. Their
Mission [ http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/files/sas/about/mission.html
] page states:
The proliferation of small arms and light weapons represents a grave
threat to human security. The unchecked spread of these weapons has
exacerbated inter- and intra-state conflicts, contributed to human
rights violations, undermined political and economic development,
destabilized communities, and devastated the lives of millions of
people.
The 2003-2005 and 2007 editions of Small Arms Survey [
http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/files/sas/publications/yearbooks.html ]
contain estimates of civilian firearms ownership rates in selected
countries. The UN�s World Health Organization (WHO) [
http://www.who.int/mental_health/prevention/suicide/country_reports/en/index.html
] tabulates suicide rates by country (suicides per 100,000
population).
Since the WHO hasn�t updated suicide reports for many countries since
the 1990s, and the Small Arms Survey hasn�t surveyed all UN member
countries, cross-referencing produced a final list of 47 countries
with both firearms ownership estimates and relatively recent suicide
data. These were then divided into quintiles.
The first chart shows results when sorted by firearms ownership rates,
expressed by Small Arms Survey as firearms per capita.
Firearms versus Suicide, Sort by Firearms Ownership Rates
Quintile Nbr Countries Firearms Ave. Suicide Rate Ave.
1 10 0.019 14.2
2 9 0.062 12.3
3 9 0.119 9.4
4 9 0.172 10.1
5 10 0.432 13.4
Countries with the lowest rates of civilian firearms ownership had the
highest suicide rates. Countries with the highest firearms ownership
rates had the second highest suicide rates, followed by countries with
the second-lowest firearms ownership rates. This may suggest that
firearms increase lethality of suicide attempts, but it is also clear
that countries with the most restrictive gun laws also have the
highest rates of suicide. Countries with moderate firearms ownership
levels have the lowest suicide rates.
The second chart shows results when sorted by suicide rates.
Firearms versus Suicide, Sort by Suicide Rates
Quintile Nbr Countries Suicide Rate Ave. Firearms Ave.
1 10 4.2 0.140
2 9 7.6 0.100
3 9 11.4 0.278
4 9 14.7 0.145
5 10 21.7 0.157
Here, countries with the lowest suicide rates have the lowest firearms
ownership rates, but the lowest quintile has firearms ownership levels
only slightly less than countries with the highest suicide rates. This
suggests that firearms availability may have some impact upon suicide
rates, but countries with moderate suicide rates have the most gun
ownership, suggesting that other factors have at least as much
influence.
The disconnect between firearms ownership and suicide rates becomes
more apparent when displaying graphs for the entire 47-country panel.
(Note that for the two following graphs, the per capita firearms
ownership rates were multiplied by 10, in order to better see the
relative rates of firearms ownership relative to suicide rates, which
remain in suicides per 100,000 population.)
The first graph shows countries sorted by ascending firearms ownership
rates. The country with the lowest firearms ownership (Romania at .030
firearms per 10 civilians, suicide rate 11.3) has about the same
suicide rate as the country with the most firearms (U.S. at 9 firearms
per 10 civilians, suicide rate 11.0). As firearms ownership increases,
suicide rates vary widely, indicating little influence of firearms
availability on suicide.
http://image3.examiner.com/images/blog/EXID2879/images/FA_Sort.jpg
When sorted by ascending suicide rates in the graph below, there again
appears to be little correlation between suicide and firearms
availability. Countries at both ends of the graph (lowest and highest
suicide rates) also have some of the lowest firearms ownership rates.
http://image3.examiner.com/images/blog/EXID2879/images/Suicide_sort.jpg
The United States has the highest level of firearms ownership: 0.900
per capita. Of all countries included in the firearms inventory, the
U.S. had 22nd highest suicide rate. Of all countries surveyed in the
last 10 years by the WHO, the U.S. had the 40th highest suicide rate.
The correlation between civilian firearms ownership and suicide rates
is weak at best. While it remains possible that more suicides may have
occurred were firearms available, there clearly are other factors
driving the need to kill oneself than method.
When it comes to suicide, sufficient intent leads to �successful�
conclusion.