On the credibility of climate predictions
Captain Compassion
Abstract Geographically distributed predictions of future climate,
obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many
other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here
we compare the output of various models to temperature and
precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100
years) records from around the globe. The results show that models
perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model
projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models
can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.
D. KOUTSOYIANNIS, A. EFSTRATIADIS, N. MAMASSIS & A. CHRISTOFIDES
Department of Water Resources, Faculty of Civil Engineering, National
Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechneiou 5, GR-157 80
Zographou, Greece d...@itia.ntua.gr
http://www.atypon-link.com/IAHS/doi/pdf/10.1623/hysj.53.4.671?cookieSet=1
--
"We can't drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our
homes on 72 degrees at all times ... and then just expect that other
countries are going to say OK." -- Barack Obama
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius
"...the whole world, including the United States, including all that
we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark
Age, made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights
of perverted science." -- Sir Winston Churchill
Joseph R. Darancette
dar...@NOSPAMcharter.net
Cormagh
wrote:
> On the credibility of climate predictions
>
> Abstract Geographically distributed predictions of future climate,
> obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many
> other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here
> we compare the output of various models to temperature and
> precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100
> years) records from around the globe. The results show that models
> perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model
> projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models
> can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.
>
> D. KOUTSOYIANNIS, A. EFSTRATIADIS, N. MAMASSIS & A. CHRISTOFIDES
> Department of Water Resources, Faculty of Civil Engineering, National
> Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechneiou 5, GR-157 80
> Zographou, Greece d...@itia.ntua.gr
>
>
> --
> "We can't drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our
> homes on 72 degrees at all times ... and then just expect that other
> countries are going to say OK." -- Barack Obama
>
> The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
> escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius
>
> "...the whole world, including the United States, including all that
> we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark
> Age, made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights
> of perverted science." -- Sir Winston Churchill
>
> Joseph R. Darancette
> dar...@NOSPAMcharter.net
I'm careful to never believe any of these wild claims either... Blurb,
bubble, bubble, choke, wheeze, gasp, gaahhh...