the US military and war landscape
Warhol
A careful reader of the limited news coming out of Iraq will discover the US
military situation is perilous and a few more bad moves could send the US
Army and Marines retreating back to Kuwait in the same manner they fled
southward 54 years ago in Korea. That was when a million Chinese foot
soldiers suddenly appeared and attacked as overextended US forces approached
the Chinese border. American firepower, airpower, and technology was unable
to compensate for the confusion and lack of supplies for American ground
troops.
The main problem in Iraq today is the massive logistics effort required to
sustain US Forces at a over a hundred dispersed camps. Over 95% of supplies
arrive by ship, and the closest major seaport is in Kuwait. This means
everything must be hauled hundreds of miles over war torn roads among
hostile natives. This is far more difficult than Vietnam, which had a long
coastline where supplies could be dropped off. A recent article by Tom Ricks
of the Washington Post noted that most convoys are attacked, and that
soldiers must stop to check each bridge for explosives because there is not
enough manpower to guard them. Other reporters tell of recently destroyed
bridges, forcing convoys to travel on secondary roads which doubles their
travel time. In addition, many civilian truck drivers have refused to drive
and many foreign logistics contractors have left Iraq.
Many reports tell of ammunition rationing. The US military was not expecting
a prolonged conflict, and drawing and transporting dangerous ammo from
limited worldwide stockpiles is a challenge. Senior Army officials told the
House Armed Services Committee last month that nearly all the wartime
stockpiles in Southwest Asia and on the island of Diego Garcia have been
issued, as well as equipment stashed in Europe?a total of 10,000 tanks,
personnel carriers, trucks, and other vehicles. Only the Army's equipment
for one brigade in Korea and the Marines' brigade stock in Guam remain
untouched. In addition, the desert sand and heavy use of helicopters and
equipment is wearing them out many times faster than usual. This demands
many more spare parts and shortages have developed. Ammunition and most
military spare parts cannot be purchased on the commercial market. Assuming
the military supply and contracting bureaucracy can quickly identify needs
and place orders, it takes months to boost production. Meanwhile, Generals
must juggle budget allocations with semi-legal account shifts since the Bush
administration has announced that it will not ask Congress for supplemental
funding until January, after the presidential election.
Back in Iraq, US commanders need more troops to guard supply lines and
provide security, but more troops require more supplies. Moreover, the Army
is stretched to the limit and has no forces ready to deploy. There are
several National Guard divisions available since most Guard combat units
have not been mobilized since 9-11. However, that would cause an election
year embarrassment for the Bush administration, and there is no money
allocated to pay them anyway. While President Bush often proclaims the
nation is at war, he has failed to request a tax increase to pay for it and
has become hesitant to mobilize more reservists to provide the manpower Army
Generals say they need. Meanwhile, combat units have been diverted for an
election year offensive into the rugged Afghanistan mountains in hope of
capturing Osama bin Laden, while the Spanish and other allies pull their
troops from Iraq. Finally, hundreds of heavy M-1 tanks were shipped back to
the USA last year as the Army expected only light peacekeeping duty. Only 70
are left in Iraq, while 28 are inbound from Germany in an emergency airlift
personally ordered by Secretary Rumsfeld. The 1st Marine Division brought
none of its 58 tanks and was forced to borrow some from the Army to support
recent fighting.
Americans forget the Bush administration had promised democracy in Iraq.
Eventually, they realized that since the Shiite represent 60% of Iraq, the
country would come under the control of fundamentalist religious leaders who
are likely to demand the US military leave. The US is building four large,
modern "enduring" bases in Iraq, and apparently wants to shift forces now
based in Germany to permanent bases in Iraq, which is to become America's
military bastion in the Middle East. Iraqis are not fooled by statements
that "sovereignty" will be granted on June 30th. All this means is that some
new English speaking Iraqi puppets will be appointed to represent US
interests. While the US military attempts to win their hearts and minds with
billions of dollars in aid, Iraqis show little gratitude since the US caused
most of the damage with bombings and a ten year trade embargo.
Sensational reporting by Arab television networks has aroused anti-American
hatred throughout the Arab world. The religious co-leaders of unstable Saudi
Arabia issued a fatwa (a law) urging Muslims to use "all means" to stop what
it called "the fierce onslaught" on Muslims by "occupation forces" in Iraq.
It "urges every fair person among Muslims and others in the world to
denounce this fierce onslaught and strive by all means to stop it and punish
those responsible for it", said the fatwa, carried by the Saudi state SPA
news agency. This was not reported by American media, and the effect is
difficult to measure, but worrisome enough that the US government
immediately ordered all non-essential US citizens to leave Saudi Arabia.
President Bush further infuriated Arabs by announcing that he would not seek
an agreement to end the Israeli occupation of Arab land, but will support
whatever Israel wants to do.
As a result, Iraq has become a magnet for young, adventurous jihadist from
Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran whose leaders have begun to openly voice
disapproval of the situation. Iran has a population of 70 million, compared
to 25 million in Iraq. If one million armed Iranians slip across the border
and attack American infidels, the US may have to retreat. Anyone who thinks
this is implausible should read about the US Army's embarrassing retreat
from North Korea in 1950. Army Generals were extremely optimistic,
dismissive of their enemy, and thought airpower could always protect them.
This historical document: Staff Operations: The X Corps in Korea, December
1950 includes these comments:
"It seemed as if the war was winding to a successful close. So sure were
Almond and his staff of the enemy's weakness that they thinned forces across
the entire front. Almond told officers of one regiment: "We're still
attacking and we're going all the way to the Yalu. Don't let a bunch of
Chinese laundrymen stop you." That regiment was overrun a few days later, by
Chinese laundrymen.
"General Willoughby-asserted that a Chinese intervention was highly unlikely
but that if it occurred the Chinese would suffer massive casualties to UN
air power. This optimism colored the plans and ideas of all subordinate
commands."
"At the start of the massive Chinese intervention, the X Corps staff at
first tried to ignore it or downplay its effect on the corps' offensive
plans. In response to the new guidance and in an attempt to react to the
rapidly changing situation for which they had no contingency plans, the X
Corps staff prepared a succession of orders, each outlining vastly different
types of operations." X Corps and the 1st Marine Division managed a
semi-organized bloody retreat from all of North Korea which was embarrassing
and costly.
American forces in Iraq cannot be defeated in standard military engagements.
However, insurgents know the weak spot; the long main supply routes. If
camps run short of ammo and spare parts, they must retreat toward Kuwait and
hope that the Army's cash strapped logistics bureaucracy can meet the
surging demand to save them from catastrophe. The Army must take five steps
to prevent an embarrassing retreat: 1) Secure the main supply routes and
establish emergency supply caches inside Iraq; 2) Develop plans to quickly
abandon vulnerable camps in a crisis; 3) Avoid alienating the Arab world
with offensive operations until the first two steps are accomplished; 4)
Stop calling Iraqi insurgents thugs, terrorists, and criminals. That
encourages poor treatment of all Iraqis by American soldiers and makes
negotiations to end violence impossible; 5) Americans must not destroy Iraqi
cities in order to save them, lest they find themselves overrun by irate
Muslim laundrymen.
Carlton Meyer edi...@G2mil.com
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