Wakeup call on the food front
Captain Compassion
Earth Policy Institute ^ | December 16, 2003 | Lester R. Brown
While Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and President Bush discussed Taiwan,
currency rates and North Korea on December 9, a more important and
far-reaching development in U.S.-China relations was going on far from
the White House.
Under the North China Plain, which produces half of China's wheat and
a third of its corn, water tables are falling by 3 to 10 feet per
year. Along with rising temperatures and the loss of cropland to
non-farm uses, this trend is shrinking the Chinese grain harvest,
which has fallen in four of the past five years. To get an idea of the
magnitude, the harvest dropped by 66 million tons during that period,
an amount that exceeds the total annual grain harvest of Canada, one
of the world's leading grain exporters.
Thus far China has covered its growing grain shortfall by drawing down
its once-massive stocks. It can do this for perhaps one more year
before those stocks are depleted. Then it will have to turn to the
world market for major purchases. The odds are that within the next
few years the United States will be loading two or three ships per day
with grain destined for China. This long line of ships stretching
across the Pacific will function like a huge umbilical cord between
the two countries.
This isn't only a question of U.S.-China relations, but also one of
the relationship between the Earth's 6.3 billion people and its
natural resources, especially water. Food production is a
water-intensive process. Producing a ton of grain requires a thousand
tons of water, which helps explain why 70 percent of all water
diverted from rivers or pumped from underground goes for irrigation.
The tripling of world water demand over the past half-century,
combined with the advent of diesel and electrically driven pumps, has
led to extensive overpumping of aquifers. As a result, more than half
the world's people now live in countries where water tables are
falling and wells are going dry. Among these countries are the three
that account for half of the world grain harvest: China, India and the
United States. In India, water tables are falling in most states,
including the Punjab, that nation's breadbasket. In the United States,
aquifers are being depleted under the southern Great Plains and
throughout the Southwest, including California.
If the world is facing a future of water shortages, then it is also
facing a future of food shortages.
To be sure, it is difficult to trace long-term trends in food
production, which fluctuates with weather, prices and the spread of
farm technology to developing countries. In one of the major economic
achievements of the last half-century, China raised its grain output
from 90 million tons in 1950 to 392 million tons in 1998. Since then,
though, China's production appears to have peaked, dropping by 66
million tons, or 17 percent. (See data.)
As a result, it seems likely that China will ultimately need to buy
30, 40 or 50 million tons of grain a year, and then it will have to
turn to the United States, which accounts for nearly half of the
world's grain exports. Imports on this unprecedented scale will create
a fascinating geopolitical situation: China, with 1.3 billion
consumers and foreign exchange reserves of $384 billion—enough to buy
the entire U.S. grain harvest eight times over—will suddenly be
competing with American consumers for U.S. grain, in all likelihood
driving up food prices.
For the first time in their history, the Chinese will be dependent on
the outside world for food supplies. And U.S. consumers will realize
that, like it or not, they will be sharing their food with Chinese
consumers.
Managing the flow of grain to satisfy the needs of both countries
simultaneously will not be easy because it could come amid a shift
from a world of chronic food surpluses to one of food scarcity.
Exporters will be tempted to restrict the flow of grain in order to
maintain price stability at home, as the United States did 30 years
ago when world grain stocks were at record lows and wheat and rice
prices doubled. But today the United States has a major stake in a
stable China because China is a major trading partner whose large
economy is the locomotive of Asia.
The pressure on world food markets may alter the relationship between
exporting and importing countries, changing the focus of international
trade negotiations from greater access to markets for exporting
countries such as the United States to assured access to food supplies
for China and the 100 or so countries that already import grain.
The prospect of food and water scarcity emerges against a backdrop of
concern about global warming. New research by crop ecologists at the
International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines and at the
U.S. Department of Agriculture indicates that a 1-degree-Celsius rise
in temperature (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above the optimum during the
growing season leads to a 10 percent decline in yields of rice, wheat
and corn. With four of the past six years being the warmest on record,
grain harvests are suffering. High temperatures lowered harvests last
year in India and the United States and scorched crops this year from
France to Ukraine.
The new combination of falling water tables and rising temperatures,
along with trends such as soil erosion, has led to four consecutive
shortfalls in the world grain harvest. This year production fell short
of consumption by a record 92 million tons. These shortages have
reduced world grain stocks to their lowest levels in 30 years.
If we have a shortfall in 2004 that is even half the size of this
year's, food prices will be rising worldwide by this time next year.
You won't have to read about it in the commodity pages. It will be
evident at the supermarket checkout counter. During the fall of 2003,
wheat and rice prices rose 10 percent to 30 percent in world markets,
and even more in some parts of China. These rises may only be the
warning tremors before the earthquake.
We can, however, take measures to improve world food security. We
could recognize that population growth and environmental trends
threaten economic progress and political stability just as terrorism
does. Since the overwhelming majority of the nearly 3 billion people
expected to be born during this half-century will be in countries
where water tables are already falling and wells are running dry,
filling the family planning gap and creating a social environment to
foster smaller families is urgent.
The situation with water today is new, but similar to that with land a
half-century ago. Coming out of World War II, we looked toward the end
of the century and saw enormous projected growth in population but
little new land to plow. The result was a concentrated international
effort to raise land productivity; boosting the world grain yields
from just over one ton per hectare in 1950 to nearly three tons today.
We now need a similar global full-court press to raise water
productivity, by shifting to more water-efficient crops, improving
irrigation and recycling urban water supplies.
As it becomes apparent that higher temperatures are shrinking harvests
and raising food prices, a powerful new consumer lobby could emerge in
support of cutting carbon emissions by moving to a hydrogen-based
economy. It is a commentary on the complexity of our time that
decisions made in ministries of energy may have a greater effect on
future food security than those made in ministries of agriculture.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
"Madmen reason rightly from the wrong premisis" -- Locke
"In this world, which is so plainly the antechamber of another, there
are no happy men. The true division of humanity is between those who
live in light and those who live in darkness. Our aim must be to
diminish the number of the latter and increase the number of the
former. That is why we demand education and knowledge." -- Victor Hugo
"There are two sides to every issue: one side is right and the other
is wrong, but the middle is always evil." -- Ayn Rand
Pluralitas non est ponenda sine neccesitate -- William of Occam
Joseph R. Darancette
res0...@NOSPAMverizon.net
Server 13
Don't worry Cap'n, the republicans will see millions dead in food riots
before they budge their profit margins .01%.
CB
"Server 13" <c-b...@uiuc.edu> wrote in message
news:brsp65$abf$1...@news.ks.uiuc.edu...
Gloom and doom are the tools of fools.
Server 13
You'd think so - but the terrorism alerts seem to be tapering off for some
reason. I haven't heard a color designation in weeks!
<SmirkS>
> Gloom and doom are the tools of fools.
that explains the terror alert system.
--
TheTruthHurts.
Carla Lamp
res0...@NOSPAMverizon.net (Captain Compassion) wrote in message news:<3fe1e17a...@news.verizon.net>...
> consumers and foreign exchange reserves of $384 billion?enough to buy
> the entire U.S. grain harvest eight times over?will suddenly be
Jeffrey Turner
> Yellows Starve ... Good!
Yellows? Hoo boy. Starve = Good?
When asked what he thought about western civilization, Gandhi replied
that he thought it would be a good idea.
--Jeff
--
"I don't mind being characterized as a 'liberal'
- I just don't happen to believe it's true."
Howard Dean
A Dean supporter is just a Democrat who hasn't
listened to Kucinich.
Captain Compassion
>> consumers and foreign exchange reserves of $384 billion容nough to buy
>> the entire U.S. grain harvest eight times over謡ill suddenly be
Seems like good reasons for GM foods to me.
beber
>Gloom and doom are the tools of fools.
>
If you hadn't noticed, the West is suffering through a huge drought. I
planted 1500 acres of wheat in dust this year and none of it came up.
The gvmt will pay me $150,000 in insurance, but I'd much rather raise
wheat. Boy, you'd better start doing your rain dance, just like me.
Food stocks are at their lowest since the 70s. But now there's a
couple billion more people.
Server 13
> Yellows Starve ... Good!
How come so many racists on usenet try to pretend they're women?
William David Thweatt
: Wakeup call on the food front
: Earth Policy Institute ^ | December 16, 2003 | Lester R. Brown
: While Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and President Bush discussed Taiwan,
: currency rates and North Korea on December 9, a more important and
: far-reaching development in U.S.-China relations was going on far from
: the White House.
: Under the North China Plain, which produces half of China's wheat and
: a third of its corn, water tables are falling by 3 to 10 feet per
: year. Along with rising temperatures and the loss of cropland to
: non-farm uses, this trend is shrinking the Chinese grain harvest,
: which has fallen in four of the past five years. To get an idea of the
: magnitude, the harvest dropped by 66 million tons during that period,
: an amount that exceeds the total annual grain harvest of Canada, one
: of the world's leading grain exporters.
: Thus far China has covered its growing grain shortfall by drawing down
: its once-massive stocks. It can do this for perhaps one more year
: before those stocks are depleted. Then it will have to turn to the
: world market for major purchases. The odds are that within the next
: few years the United States will be loading two or three ships per day
: with grain destined for China. This long line of ships stretching
: across the Pacific will function like a huge umbilical cord between
: the two countries.
<snip leftwing propaganda which followed>
This is FABULOUS NEWS for the US. Our agricultural surplus has devastated
farm profits in the US. China is the world's LARGEST potential market for
our food.
Hooray!!!
--
--
William "Dave" Thweatt
Robert E. Welch Postdoctoral Fellow
Chemistry Department
Rice University
Houston, TX
thw...@ruf.rice.edu
dave.t...@us.army.mil
William David Thweatt
: Yellows Starve ... Good!
LOOK!!! It's a top-posting racist BITCH!!!
Jeffrey Turner
And agriculture is one of the biggest markets for chemicals, hrm...