Is the Supreme Court about to significantly change how religious objections are treated?

[Josh Rosenbluth]

A set of cases came before SCOTUS where religious objectors sued when
states limited their religious practice because of COVID that may signal
a big shift in how religious objectors are treated.

At first, the religious objectors lost because they have to follow the
same laws everyone else does, so long as those laws are neutral and
generally applicable. Justice Kavanaugh dissented, offering up a new
standard that if there is *any* exception in the law, religious
objectors must be also be excepted.

But then Justice Ginsburg was replaced by Justice Barrett, and the Court
flip-flopped and ruled in favor of the religious objector. Justice
Kavanaugh wrote a concurring opinion again expressing his new standard.
Finally, another case came up where the religious objector won and the
opinion of the Court adopted Kavanaugh's standard.

In this last case, California had prohibited gatherings of more than
three families in homes. The prohibition did not mention religion, but
of course applied to religious gatherings the same as secular
gatherings. The Court however held that because most retail stores could
have more than three families in them, that is an exception that means
religious (but not secular) gatherings in homes must also be excepted.

It struck me as very odd that in-home gatherings are to be lumped
together with retail stores. And even if I'm wrong and the two places
are comparable, Kavanaugh's any-exception standard is likely to de facto
reverse Scalia's landmark decision in the peyote case and permit
religious objections to every law (virtually every law has some
exception). And this revolution occurred relatively silently in the
so-called "shadow docket" where SCOTUS is only reacting to preliminary
injunctions without addressing the full merits of a case complete with
briefings and oral arguments.

There is one case pending that was fully briefed and argued that may
shed more light: Fulton v. City of Philadelphia concerning a religious
objector and adoption services. It could be decided any day now.

We may soon know whether Hartung or Rudy will be happy.