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Class In Session: "WHY & HOW MITT THE SHIT STEPPED IN IT"
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Professor Racist
Nov 11, 2012, 11:08:20 AM11/11/12
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ATTENTION: This tutorial is for American rednecks and racists.
Especially the brainless, the skill-less and, thereby, the jobless.
If you find you're in the wrong class, you may leave now.
=================
"Romney’s response to Benghazi was not nearly as bipartisan. He came
across as opportunistic, even craven in response to the tragedy. He
was, in the light of American deaths, not especially presidential."
=================
"Lessons from the 2012 election"
By Barry Ritholtz
November 10, 2012
WISDOM can be found in many places. Whenever I encounter some
momentous event with winners and losers, I try to discern broader
lessons to apply elsewhere. The 2012 presidential election was no
different, with lessons that can be applied to investing and business.
1) Process, not outcome, is what matters. When it came to
forecasting the election, the winner was mathematics. Sharp data
analysis beat squishy feelings every time. The accuracy of the new
class of data junkies and statisticians was the single most important
story line of the election for investors. Nate Silver showed data,
logical reasoning and mathematics outperform “gut feel” and instinct.
The bloviating punditry got it wrong, the stat geeks got it right. To
quote the delightful nerd comic XKCD, “To the surprise of pundits,
numbers continue to be the best system for determining which of two
things is larger.”
2) Do your homework and practice. Yes, I refer to the first debate.
“No Drama Obama” created a lot of drama by making an awful showing. He
looked unprepared and surprised that his opponent wasn’t simply going
to lie down. Perhaps he was cocky after enjoying a comfortable lead
for most of 2012. Regardless, the lessons were obvious: You can never
be too prepared. And practice is crucial, even if you are the
president of the United States.
3) Think deeply before you speak. Grand pronouncements have a big
appeal to our egos. They can make us look smart, and play to the
policy wonks of the world. But they have limited upside and immense
downside. In Mitt Romney’s case, his Nov. 18, 2008, New York Times
opinion piece, “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt,” probably came back to haunt
him in Ohio, where one in eight workers was employed by the auto
industry.
4) Avoid clichés. The media completely misread this election. There
were a series of narratives about razor-thin margins, another late
night waiting for results, even the House of Representatives having to
break a tie. In the end, the incumbent received 3 million more votes
than the challenger. But that margin understates the electoral college
blowout, with the incumbent winning 332 electoral votes to the
challenger’s 206. The one cliché the mainstream overlooked: There are
strong advantages to incumbency.
5) Don’t live in a bubble. Large swaths of the conservative
movement seem to live in a world of their own creation. The
balkanization of media outlets allow people to read only that which
they agree with. This selective perception and confirmation bias
creates a self-reinforcing alternative universe. Facts don’t matter;
data and science are irrelevant. You only hear exactly what it is you
want to hear.
Outlets like Fox News and pundits like George Will and Dick Morris
were forecasting a Mitt Romney landslide. Don’t like the polling data?
Create a site called “UnskewedPolls.com” to provide numbers you do
like. As it turned out, UnskewedPolls was the least accurate polling
aggregator this election cycle. If you spend most of your time
rationalizing why the polls are inaccurate and the media are biased,
you will probably be surprised at what happens next. As smart
investors know, this sort of bias can be very expensive.
6) Have influential allies. At times, the GOP primary seemed to be
a Federal Reserve bashing contest. There was a constant critique about
Federal Open Marketing Committee interventions, quantitative easing
and the zero interest rate policy. Rick Perry accused Fed chief Ben
Bernanke of treason, and seemingly threatened to lynch the man (“I
don’t know what y’all would do to him in Iowa, but we — we would treat
him pretty ugly down in Texas.”) Ron Paul’s book “End the Fed” made
his intentions clear. It was a far cry from George H.W. Bush’s
complaint that then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan didn’t do enough to
help the economy during his 1992 election campaign.
Have a look at Gallup’s Daily U.S. Economic Confidence Index. This
survey combines responses to polls on current economic conditions and
future economic outlook. The survey reported big spurts in August
2011, following the Fed’s Operation Twist. There was another spurt
after September 2012’s announcement of QE3, the third round of
quantitative easing. The Fed seemed to be driving economic confidence
higher.
The lesson I learned? It is smart not to alienate powerful, well-
placed people of influence and authority, especially those who might
assist you.
7) Be true to yourself. Romney was a moderate, pro-choice governor
who worked as bipartisan chief executive in Massachusetts to deal with
a health-care budget crisis. He created a statewide health-care
program that was the basis of Obamacare. But Romney ran from that
record, tacking hard to the right to win over the base during the GOP
primaries before shifting to the middle during the general election
campaign.
He would have been much better off running on his credentials instead
of morphing into a series of personas trying to please everyone. That
is an important lesson to anyone running a business: Understand who
you are and what you do best. Focus on providing that.
8) Choose your business partners well. The vice-presidential choice
is a major decision any presidential candidate makes. Romney’s
selection of Rep. Paul Ryan added nothing to his electoral chances.
Ryan failed to deliver his home state, Wisconsin. He fumbled his
debate to a grinning and goofy Joe Biden. And Ryan’s plan to
“voucherize” Medicaid probably hurt Romney with Florida seniors.
9) It takes more than money. No one is happy about all of the money
in politics, but the impact may be more muted than we believe.
Consider the outsize money interests in this election cycle. Sheldon
Adelson poured $100 million into six races, and lost them all. Karl
Rove’s super PAC put more than $300 million into myriad races; he
found success in Indiana – but was shut out everywhere else. And the
$91 million dollars Connecticut candidate Linda McMahon spent in two
Senate campaigns yielded her exactly zero electoral success.
A threshold amount of money is necessary to be competitive in any
business endeavor, but only to a point. Beyond the marginal utility of
a minimum dollar amount, pouring more money onto a project is no
substitute for substance, a clear value proposition and a product
consumers want.
10) It helps to make your own luck. In the waning months of the
election, two tragedies presented each campaign an opportunity to
respond. The first was the tragedy in Benghazi, Libya, where four
Americans, including the U.S. ambassador, were killed by terrorists.
The second was Hurricane Sandy, which became a superstorm and
devastated parts of New York and New Jersey.
The responses to these to circumstances were markedly different: Obama
put partisanship aside, worked closely with New Jersey Gov. Chris
Christie and focused on managing the response to the storm. Christie,
the keynote speaker at the GOP convention and vocal Obama critic, was
effusive in his praise of the president.
Romney’s response to Benghazi was not nearly as bipartisan. He came
across as opportunistic, even craven in response to the tragedy. He
was, in the light of American deaths, not especially presidential.
Emergencies are opportunities to demonstrate an understanding of
priorities, a sense of what matters most. How you respond to
circumstances is important. There are times to focus on your business,
and times to put that aside and focus on your people.
(Ritholtz is chief executive of FusionIQ, a quantitative research
firm. He is the author of “Bailout Nation” and runs a finance blog,
the Big Picture. On Twitter: @Ritholtz)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/lessons-from-the-2012-election/2012/11/09/a347e922-29d3-11e2-bab2-eda299503684_story.html
Especially the brainless, the skill-less and, thereby, the jobless.
If you find you're in the wrong class, you may leave now.
=================
"Romney’s response to Benghazi was not nearly as bipartisan. He came
across as opportunistic, even craven in response to the tragedy. He
was, in the light of American deaths, not especially presidential."
=================
"Lessons from the 2012 election"
By Barry Ritholtz
November 10, 2012
WISDOM can be found in many places. Whenever I encounter some
momentous event with winners and losers, I try to discern broader
lessons to apply elsewhere. The 2012 presidential election was no
different, with lessons that can be applied to investing and business.
1) Process, not outcome, is what matters. When it came to
forecasting the election, the winner was mathematics. Sharp data
analysis beat squishy feelings every time. The accuracy of the new
class of data junkies and statisticians was the single most important
story line of the election for investors. Nate Silver showed data,
logical reasoning and mathematics outperform “gut feel” and instinct.
The bloviating punditry got it wrong, the stat geeks got it right. To
quote the delightful nerd comic XKCD, “To the surprise of pundits,
numbers continue to be the best system for determining which of two
things is larger.”
2) Do your homework and practice. Yes, I refer to the first debate.
“No Drama Obama” created a lot of drama by making an awful showing. He
looked unprepared and surprised that his opponent wasn’t simply going
to lie down. Perhaps he was cocky after enjoying a comfortable lead
for most of 2012. Regardless, the lessons were obvious: You can never
be too prepared. And practice is crucial, even if you are the
president of the United States.
3) Think deeply before you speak. Grand pronouncements have a big
appeal to our egos. They can make us look smart, and play to the
policy wonks of the world. But they have limited upside and immense
downside. In Mitt Romney’s case, his Nov. 18, 2008, New York Times
opinion piece, “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt,” probably came back to haunt
him in Ohio, where one in eight workers was employed by the auto
industry.
4) Avoid clichés. The media completely misread this election. There
were a series of narratives about razor-thin margins, another late
night waiting for results, even the House of Representatives having to
break a tie. In the end, the incumbent received 3 million more votes
than the challenger. But that margin understates the electoral college
blowout, with the incumbent winning 332 electoral votes to the
challenger’s 206. The one cliché the mainstream overlooked: There are
strong advantages to incumbency.
5) Don’t live in a bubble. Large swaths of the conservative
movement seem to live in a world of their own creation. The
balkanization of media outlets allow people to read only that which
they agree with. This selective perception and confirmation bias
creates a self-reinforcing alternative universe. Facts don’t matter;
data and science are irrelevant. You only hear exactly what it is you
want to hear.
Outlets like Fox News and pundits like George Will and Dick Morris
were forecasting a Mitt Romney landslide. Don’t like the polling data?
Create a site called “UnskewedPolls.com” to provide numbers you do
like. As it turned out, UnskewedPolls was the least accurate polling
aggregator this election cycle. If you spend most of your time
rationalizing why the polls are inaccurate and the media are biased,
you will probably be surprised at what happens next. As smart
investors know, this sort of bias can be very expensive.
6) Have influential allies. At times, the GOP primary seemed to be
a Federal Reserve bashing contest. There was a constant critique about
Federal Open Marketing Committee interventions, quantitative easing
and the zero interest rate policy. Rick Perry accused Fed chief Ben
Bernanke of treason, and seemingly threatened to lynch the man (“I
don’t know what y’all would do to him in Iowa, but we — we would treat
him pretty ugly down in Texas.”) Ron Paul’s book “End the Fed” made
his intentions clear. It was a far cry from George H.W. Bush’s
complaint that then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan didn’t do enough to
help the economy during his 1992 election campaign.
Have a look at Gallup’s Daily U.S. Economic Confidence Index. This
survey combines responses to polls on current economic conditions and
future economic outlook. The survey reported big spurts in August
2011, following the Fed’s Operation Twist. There was another spurt
after September 2012’s announcement of QE3, the third round of
quantitative easing. The Fed seemed to be driving economic confidence
higher.
The lesson I learned? It is smart not to alienate powerful, well-
placed people of influence and authority, especially those who might
assist you.
7) Be true to yourself. Romney was a moderate, pro-choice governor
who worked as bipartisan chief executive in Massachusetts to deal with
a health-care budget crisis. He created a statewide health-care
program that was the basis of Obamacare. But Romney ran from that
record, tacking hard to the right to win over the base during the GOP
primaries before shifting to the middle during the general election
campaign.
He would have been much better off running on his credentials instead
of morphing into a series of personas trying to please everyone. That
is an important lesson to anyone running a business: Understand who
you are and what you do best. Focus on providing that.
8) Choose your business partners well. The vice-presidential choice
is a major decision any presidential candidate makes. Romney’s
selection of Rep. Paul Ryan added nothing to his electoral chances.
Ryan failed to deliver his home state, Wisconsin. He fumbled his
debate to a grinning and goofy Joe Biden. And Ryan’s plan to
“voucherize” Medicaid probably hurt Romney with Florida seniors.
9) It takes more than money. No one is happy about all of the money
in politics, but the impact may be more muted than we believe.
Consider the outsize money interests in this election cycle. Sheldon
Adelson poured $100 million into six races, and lost them all. Karl
Rove’s super PAC put more than $300 million into myriad races; he
found success in Indiana – but was shut out everywhere else. And the
$91 million dollars Connecticut candidate Linda McMahon spent in two
Senate campaigns yielded her exactly zero electoral success.
A threshold amount of money is necessary to be competitive in any
business endeavor, but only to a point. Beyond the marginal utility of
a minimum dollar amount, pouring more money onto a project is no
substitute for substance, a clear value proposition and a product
consumers want.
10) It helps to make your own luck. In the waning months of the
election, two tragedies presented each campaign an opportunity to
respond. The first was the tragedy in Benghazi, Libya, where four
Americans, including the U.S. ambassador, were killed by terrorists.
The second was Hurricane Sandy, which became a superstorm and
devastated parts of New York and New Jersey.
The responses to these to circumstances were markedly different: Obama
put partisanship aside, worked closely with New Jersey Gov. Chris
Christie and focused on managing the response to the storm. Christie,
the keynote speaker at the GOP convention and vocal Obama critic, was
effusive in his praise of the president.
Romney’s response to Benghazi was not nearly as bipartisan. He came
across as opportunistic, even craven in response to the tragedy. He
was, in the light of American deaths, not especially presidential.
Emergencies are opportunities to demonstrate an understanding of
priorities, a sense of what matters most. How you respond to
circumstances is important. There are times to focus on your business,
and times to put that aside and focus on your people.
(Ritholtz is chief executive of FusionIQ, a quantitative research
firm. He is the author of “Bailout Nation” and runs a finance blog,
the Big Picture. On Twitter: @Ritholtz)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/lessons-from-the-2012-election/2012/11/09/a347e922-29d3-11e2-bab2-eda299503684_story.html
Nickname unavailable
Nov 11, 2012, 1:07:49 PM11/11/12
to
On Nov 11, 10:08 am, Professor Racist <perryneh...@hotmail.com> wrote:
but upon careful examination "THE CONSERVATIVES" feeble attempts at
confusion and dishonesty does not stand up to the light. they live in
a counter-factual universe, the product of the hermetically sealed
"CONSERVATIVE" subculture. Trying to see the world through the lens
of
"THE CONSERVATIVE", is like looking at a fun-house mirror;
everything’s backwards and distorted.
"THE CONSERVATIVES" world view is flawed because its based upon a
small and particularly rosy sliver of reality. To preserve that world
view, "THE CONSERVATIVES" believe that people had morally earned their
“just” desserts, and had to ignore those whining liberals who tried to
point out that the world didn’t actually work that way. I think this
shows why "THE CONSERVATIVES" put so much effort into “creat[ing]
their own reality,” into fostering distrust of liberals, experts,
scientists, and academics, and why they won’t let a campaign “be
dictated by fact-checkers” (as a Romney pollster put it). It explains
why study after study shows that avid consumers of "THE CONSERVATIVE"-
oriented media are more poorly informed than people who use other news
sources or don’t bother to follow the news at all.
the republican party is simply running out of al bundy, homer simpson,
archie bunker types. people so stupid, they cannot even do basic math,
let alone come in from the rain.
the constitution of the united states was a anti-conservative
statement by the majority of the founders of the united states of
america.
the al bundy/homer simpson/archie bunker types, are a towering
achievement to the success of the nanny state. those types live long
stupid lives. without the nanny state, they would live short brutal
lives like in somalia.
but today the polices that the stupid feverishly support and cling
to, are starting to bear fruit. only the stupid would feverishly cling
to polices that will shorten their lives, and make life more
miserable, they are now dying off early, on average, their lives are
being shortened by about four years.
its a zero sum game though for the wealthy parasites that they
feverishly worship, because now "THE CONSERVATIVES" are running low on
stupid voters. as rick sanitarium said, the smart will never side with
us.
the more you expose the "CONSERVATIVES" for what they are, the more
the public realizes that there are two kinds of "CONSERVATIVE "
voters,
al bundy, homer simpson, archie bunker types, and high functioning
clever cunning and manipulative sociopaths that can fool them.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q: Where does a retired Teabagger go for medical treatment after the
GOP has abolished Medicare?
A: No Teabagger ever thinks that far ahead.
Q: How do you hide something from a teabagger? A: Put it in a
textbook.
Q: How do you start a teabagger parade? A: Roll a few cans of Skoal
down the street.
Q: Where does a retired Teabagger go for medical treatment after the
GOP has abolished Medicare? A: No Teabagger ever thinks that far
ahead.
Q: What did the Teabagger say to the doctor when she found out she was
pregnant? A: Are you sure it s mine?
Q:Who do Teabaggers call an elitist? A: Someone with a sixth-grade
education.
Q:What s the difference between an angry Teabagger and a terrorist?
A:You can negotiate with a terrorist.
You know you're a Teabagger when you put the beatdown on your tattoo
artist for spelling "MOM" backwards.
but upon careful examination "THE CONSERVATIVES" feeble attempts at
confusion and dishonesty does not stand up to the light. they live in
a counter-factual universe, the product of the hermetically sealed
"CONSERVATIVE" subculture. Trying to see the world through the lens
of
"THE CONSERVATIVE", is like looking at a fun-house mirror;
everything’s backwards and distorted.
"THE CONSERVATIVES" world view is flawed because its based upon a
small and particularly rosy sliver of reality. To preserve that world
view, "THE CONSERVATIVES" believe that people had morally earned their
“just” desserts, and had to ignore those whining liberals who tried to
point out that the world didn’t actually work that way. I think this
shows why "THE CONSERVATIVES" put so much effort into “creat[ing]
their own reality,” into fostering distrust of liberals, experts,
scientists, and academics, and why they won’t let a campaign “be
dictated by fact-checkers” (as a Romney pollster put it). It explains
why study after study shows that avid consumers of "THE CONSERVATIVE"-
oriented media are more poorly informed than people who use other news
sources or don’t bother to follow the news at all.
the republican party is simply running out of al bundy, homer simpson,
archie bunker types. people so stupid, they cannot even do basic math,
let alone come in from the rain.
the constitution of the united states was a anti-conservative
statement by the majority of the founders of the united states of
america.
the al bundy/homer simpson/archie bunker types, are a towering
achievement to the success of the nanny state. those types live long
stupid lives. without the nanny state, they would live short brutal
lives like in somalia.
but today the polices that the stupid feverishly support and cling
to, are starting to bear fruit. only the stupid would feverishly cling
to polices that will shorten their lives, and make life more
miserable, they are now dying off early, on average, their lives are
being shortened by about four years.
its a zero sum game though for the wealthy parasites that they
feverishly worship, because now "THE CONSERVATIVES" are running low on
stupid voters. as rick sanitarium said, the smart will never side with
us.
the more you expose the "CONSERVATIVES" for what they are, the more
the public realizes that there are two kinds of "CONSERVATIVE "
voters,
al bundy, homer simpson, archie bunker types, and high functioning
clever cunning and manipulative sociopaths that can fool them.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q: Where does a retired Teabagger go for medical treatment after the
GOP has abolished Medicare?
A: No Teabagger ever thinks that far ahead.
Q: How do you hide something from a teabagger? A: Put it in a
textbook.
Q: How do you start a teabagger parade? A: Roll a few cans of Skoal
down the street.
Q: Where does a retired Teabagger go for medical treatment after the
GOP has abolished Medicare? A: No Teabagger ever thinks that far
ahead.
Q: What did the Teabagger say to the doctor when she found out she was
pregnant? A: Are you sure it s mine?
Q:Who do Teabaggers call an elitist? A: Someone with a sixth-grade
education.
Q:What s the difference between an angry Teabagger and a terrorist?
A:You can negotiate with a terrorist.
You know you're a Teabagger when you put the beatdown on your tattoo
artist for spelling "MOM" backwards.
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