The Market Is Not A Good Barometer For The People's Economy: Stephen Moore: The
Biden 'Bull Market' Is Just Bull
Biden is boasting about the recent stock market rally. He's right that stocks
have been on a tear for the last 14 months. The SandP 500 hit 5,000 for the
first time in history. That's up from 500 some 30 years ago.
Even with all our problems, the United States is the unrivaled alpha male
nation. The dollar is the only currency that matters globally (the Euro and
BRICS are weak little sisters), and for the first time, the U.S. economy
produces far more than all of socialist Europe combined. Our Magnificent Seven
Technology firms - Amazon, Apple, Google, Invidia, Meta, Microsoft and Tesla -
are close to being worth more than all of the stocks combined in any other
country With the exception of China.
But the Biden bull stock market story isn't all it's cracked up to be. Most of
the gains in the market have only made up for the miserable returns in Biden's
disastrous first two years in office when stocks lost almost 15 percent of
their value. In other words, for the most part, the last 14 months have simply
made up for the lost ground during the 2022 rout in stocks. (RELATED: STEPHEN
MOORE: The Real Story Of The Two Americas)
Yes, it's true that in nominal terms stocks are at record highs. But one of the
first rules of investing is that you need to pay attention to your after-
inflation profits. If you make an investment in a widget company and in 10
years that stock has doubled in value but the price level in dollars of
everything else has doubled, sorry, you're no better off based on what you can
buy with those profits.
So let's see what has happened to stocks over the first three years of the
Biden presidency - i.e, through the end of January 2024.
Over that period the price level has risen by about 18 percent. The real
(inflation-adjusted) rate of return in the SandP 500 after three years of Biden
is thus only 8%. This is fairly anemic and well below the average annual real
rate of return since the New York Stock Exchange opened its doors, which is a
three year average of more than 20%.
Biden's performance is also much worse than the bull market under Trump. The
SandP was up 36% in real terms at this time of Trump's presidency, or more than
four times better.
Trump has made the case that the rise in the stock market in recent months is a
result of the higher likelihood that he will be elected in November. I don't
put too much stock in that claim. If the stock market tanks, is he responsible
for that too?
However, an analysis by ace investor Scott Bessent and a member of the
Committee to Unleash Prosperity economic council, finds that fluctuations in
the stock market over the past year have correlated positively with the betting
market odds that Trump will win. Right now he stands at just above 50 percent.
This relationship could be spurious and of course by far the biggest factor
that drives stock valuations is profits.
One last price of investment advice. Investors should pay attention to the
Democratic agenda if they win in November. The Biden economic plan calls for
doubling the capital gains tax, taxing unrealized capital gains, and raising
both the corporate tax rate and the dividend tax. That is very bad news for
sure for stocks. And that, you can take to the bank.
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White Liberals More Likely To Have A Mental Health Condition
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/apr/22/white-liberals-more-likely-
have-mental-health-cond/
Apr 22, 2021 - Sixty-two percent of Whites who classify themselves as "very
liberal" or "liberal" have been told by a doctor they have a mental health
condition, as compared to 26% of conservatives and...
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White Liberals More Likely to Have Mental Health Problems... - Newsmax
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/white-liberals-mental-health-
study/2021/04/20/id/1018293/
The Pew Study, Which The Washington Free Beacon notes was published last year
but only gained attention in a recent article, showed that white liberals of
all ages were more likely to be diagnosed with a mental health condition than
moderates or conservatives, with the disparity particularly pronounced among
those aged 18-29, according to evie...
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Study: Young White Liberals More Likely to Have Mental Health Problems
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/04/22/study-young-white-liberals-
more-likely-to-have-mental-health-problems/
Apr 22, 2021 - When sex and age were factors, 56.3 percent of white women
between the ages of 18 and 29 and who labeled themselves as "liberal," said
they had been given a mental health diagnosis, compared to 27.3 percent of
conservatives in the same categories and 28.4 percent of moderates:
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62% of "liberal" or very "liberal" whites have a mental health condition
https://www.independentsentinel.com/62-of-liberal-or-very-liberal-whites-have-
a-mental-health-condition/
According to a Pew Research Center survey, 62% percent of Whites who classify
themselves as "very liberal" or "liberal" has been told by a doctor they have a
mental health condition. Only 26% of conservatives and 20% of moderates have
been told they have such a condition, the study found.
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Pew Study: White Liberals Disproportionately Suffer From Mental Illness...
https://wibc.com/108211/pew-study-white-liberals-disproportionately-suffer-
from-mental-illness/
White women, ages 18-29, who identified as liberal were given a mental health
diagnosis from medical professionals at a rate of 56.3%, as compared to 28.4%
in moderates and 27.3% in conservatives. Zach Goldberg, a Ph.D. candidate in
political science, consolidated the study's info in a set of visuals and posted
them to a thread on Twitter.
SCIENCE: White Libs More Likely To Have Mental Health Problems
https://freebeacon.com/politics/white-libs-mental-health/
Within this demographic, 34 percent of liberals reported having mental health
problems, compared with 22 percent of moderates and 16 percent of
conservatives. Zach Goldberg, the doctoral...
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White Liberals Twice as Likely to be Diagnosed with Psychological Problems
https://www.hennessysview.com/p/psychologic-disorders-white-liberals
Nearly 1 in 2 (45.9%) of white liberals have been diagnosed with mental health
disorders. White liberals of all ages are more than twice as likely as
conservatives of any age to suffer from mental health disorders. White liberals
are almost twice as likely as non-white liberals to be diagnosed with mental
health problems.
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6 Reasons Why Liberalism IS A Mental Disorder (LOL) - The Political Insider
https://thepoliticalinsider.com/6-reasons-why-liberalism-can-be-considered-a-
mental-disorder/
In 2005, Michael Savage famously wrote a book titled, Liberalism is a Mental
Disorder, the subject of which is self-explanatory. Additionally, Dr. Lyle
Rossiter, a board-certified clinical psychologist, wrote a book in which he
diagnosed the ideology of the left as a tangible mental illness.
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Personality Traits, Mental Illness, and Ideology
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/unique-everybody-
else/202103/personality-traits-mental-illness-and-ideology
specifically, surveys on the " big five " traits of extraversion,
agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, and openness to experience have
found that people identifying as politically...
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Study claims over 50% of liberal women under 30 have mental health...
https://theliberal.ie/study-claims-over-50-of-liberal-women-under-30-have-
mental-health-issues-men-and-women-with-liberal-views-more-likely-to-be-
mentally-unwell/
Study claims over 50% of liberal women under 30 have mental health issues, men
and women with liberal views more likely to be mentally unwell April 24, 2021 -
12:01 Gerard Clarke Irish News