info
Google Groups no longer supports new Usenet posts or subscriptions. Historical content remains viewable.
Dismiss
Re: If Donald Trump wins, he'll control Europe's gas
0 views
Skip to first unread message
Europe better hope Trump
Feb 7, 2024, 10:27:31 PMFeb 7
to
On 05 Jan 2022, TrumpenFuehrer News Network <HeilTrump...@gop.net>
posted some news:sr52a9$22k$1...@news.freedyn.de:
> Trump will be too busy hanging Democrats to worry about Europe.
Arecent US policy announcement is a sharp reminder of how crucial America
is to global energy supply, and the geopolitics that surround it. On 26
January, Joe Biden declared a “temporary pause” on pending decisions
regarding US exports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG. These exports were
the reason Europe was able to stop importing Russian gas without
widespread shortages and blackouts, and they remain fundamental to
Europe’s energy security. They give America a new power over Europe, and a
new question: what would Donald Trump do with it?
To be clear, this does not mean that Biden is cutting off or even reducing
the supply of LNG from the US to Europe. The European Commission and the
US Department of Energy discussed the “pause” in advance, and export
projects that have already been approved are going ahead. But the delays
in planning new exports in the years to come leave companies with fewer
options. Canada is increasing its LNG exports, but the terminals are on
its west coast, making them far more suited for export to Asia.
Qatari LNG, on which Britain is highly dependent, is typically sold under
very long, exclusive agreements, which might make an importer dependent
beyond 2030 or even 2050 — with implications for net zero plans — and
prevent buyers from selling the gas on to third parties.
America’s LNG is sold with no such strings attached. This has been great
for global energy security. Germany previously imported most of its gas
from Russia, but the flexibility of US exports after Russia invaded
Ukraine allowed Europe to cut off Vladimir Putin’s gas while keeping its
lights on and boilers running. However, it’s not the greatest look for
Biden, who — having been elected on bold promises to take action on the
climate crisis and phase out fossil fuels — has presided over America’s
rise to become the world’s biggest exporter of natural gas (US oil
production has also reached record highs).
Henning Gloystein, director of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia
Group, says there is “a heavy political angle” to the LNG pause, in that
it gives Biden an opportunity to say that he is selecting only the
greenest projects for approval. In reality, Gloystein says, most forecasts
assume that only a minority of the currently proposed projects will
eventually come online. The likely outcome of the current “pause” is that
it introduces a year of “planning insecurity” for Europe before the next
president is inaugurated and business continues as usual
Then again, it’s worth testing the idea that anything under a vengeful
Trump administration would continue as usual. Trump is not going to
restrict US LNG exports because he cares about the climate crisis, which
in 2022 he described as “a hoax”. But this doesn’t mean he won’t relish
the opportunity to squeeze Europe’s gas supply.
Trump has previously shown willingness to intervene in both American trade
and America’s contributions to Nato. It’s not outlandish to imagine him
demanding a 10 per cent “US security tariff” on US LNG exports to Europe,
to make up for a perceived lack of defence spending – “it's Trump”, says
Gloystein, “this could happen” – and in doing so force a new period of
inflation into the EU.
Trump is also far more sympathetic to Putin and ambivalent, at best,
towards Ukraine. The geopolitics of gas are likely to become even more
significant if he returns to the White House. The risk of being exposed to
a very small number of energy sources will become even more apparent –
supplies from Qatar, too, could be affected by conflict in the Middle
East.
“When you have really high prices of fossil fuels, because of geopolitical
risk and unreliable supply”, says Gloystein, “politically and
economically, that sends a really clear message you need to invest into
clean domestic supply. That's the only option.”
https://www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/sustainability/energy/2024/02/if-
donald-trump-wins-hell-control-europes-gas
posted some news:sr52a9$22k$1...@news.freedyn.de:
> Trump will be too busy hanging Democrats to worry about Europe.
Arecent US policy announcement is a sharp reminder of how crucial America
is to global energy supply, and the geopolitics that surround it. On 26
January, Joe Biden declared a “temporary pause” on pending decisions
regarding US exports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG. These exports were
the reason Europe was able to stop importing Russian gas without
widespread shortages and blackouts, and they remain fundamental to
Europe’s energy security. They give America a new power over Europe, and a
new question: what would Donald Trump do with it?
To be clear, this does not mean that Biden is cutting off or even reducing
the supply of LNG from the US to Europe. The European Commission and the
US Department of Energy discussed the “pause” in advance, and export
projects that have already been approved are going ahead. But the delays
in planning new exports in the years to come leave companies with fewer
options. Canada is increasing its LNG exports, but the terminals are on
its west coast, making them far more suited for export to Asia.
Qatari LNG, on which Britain is highly dependent, is typically sold under
very long, exclusive agreements, which might make an importer dependent
beyond 2030 or even 2050 — with implications for net zero plans — and
prevent buyers from selling the gas on to third parties.
America’s LNG is sold with no such strings attached. This has been great
for global energy security. Germany previously imported most of its gas
from Russia, but the flexibility of US exports after Russia invaded
Ukraine allowed Europe to cut off Vladimir Putin’s gas while keeping its
lights on and boilers running. However, it’s not the greatest look for
Biden, who — having been elected on bold promises to take action on the
climate crisis and phase out fossil fuels — has presided over America’s
rise to become the world’s biggest exporter of natural gas (US oil
production has also reached record highs).
Henning Gloystein, director of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia
Group, says there is “a heavy political angle” to the LNG pause, in that
it gives Biden an opportunity to say that he is selecting only the
greenest projects for approval. In reality, Gloystein says, most forecasts
assume that only a minority of the currently proposed projects will
eventually come online. The likely outcome of the current “pause” is that
it introduces a year of “planning insecurity” for Europe before the next
president is inaugurated and business continues as usual
Then again, it’s worth testing the idea that anything under a vengeful
Trump administration would continue as usual. Trump is not going to
restrict US LNG exports because he cares about the climate crisis, which
in 2022 he described as “a hoax”. But this doesn’t mean he won’t relish
the opportunity to squeeze Europe’s gas supply.
Trump has previously shown willingness to intervene in both American trade
and America’s contributions to Nato. It’s not outlandish to imagine him
demanding a 10 per cent “US security tariff” on US LNG exports to Europe,
to make up for a perceived lack of defence spending – “it's Trump”, says
Gloystein, “this could happen” – and in doing so force a new period of
inflation into the EU.
Trump is also far more sympathetic to Putin and ambivalent, at best,
towards Ukraine. The geopolitics of gas are likely to become even more
significant if he returns to the White House. The risk of being exposed to
a very small number of energy sources will become even more apparent –
supplies from Qatar, too, could be affected by conflict in the Middle
East.
“When you have really high prices of fossil fuels, because of geopolitical
risk and unreliable supply”, says Gloystein, “politically and
economically, that sends a really clear message you need to invest into
clean domestic supply. That's the only option.”
https://www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/sustainability/energy/2024/02/if-
donald-trump-wins-hell-control-europes-gas
0 new messages