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11 Senate races will determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the chamber after midterm elections
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zinn
Sep 23, 2022, 3:30:25 AM9/23/22
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Republicans need a net gain of just one seat in November's midterm
elections to reclaim the Senate majority
With just under nine weeks to go until November’s midterm elections, the
top non-partisan political handicappers point to a toss-up between the
Democrats and Republicans in the battle for the Senate majority.
The Senate is currently split 50/50 between the two major parties, but the
Democrats control the majority thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice
President Kamala Harris. That means the GOP needs a net gain of just one
seat to regain the majority they lost when they were swept in the Jan. 5,
2021, twin Senate runoffs in Georgia.
The Republicans are defending 21 of the 35 seats up for grabs in November,
including five seats held by retiring Republicans. And three of those open
seats are in the general election battlegrounds of Pennsylvania and North
Carolina and the competitive state of Ohio.
At the start of the summer, Republicans were energized as they pushed to
regain the House and Senate majorities, enjoying historical headwinds (the
party that wins the White House traditionally suffers setbacks in the
ensuing midterm elections) as well as a favorable political climate fueled
by skyrocketing gas prices, record inflation, soaring crime, and parents
discontent with their children’s schools following pandemic shutdowns.
FINAL SPRINT FOR CONTROL OF CONGRESS AND STATE GOVERNMENTS UNDERWAY
But Democrats seem to have regained momentum, following a string of ballot
box successes this summer in the wake of the blockbuster move by the
Supreme Court’s conservative majority to upend the landmark Roe v. Wade
ruling and send the combustible issue of legalized abortion back to the
states. And the summer-long easing of gas prices, a string of major
legislative victories for Democrats in Congress, and President Biden’s
rising (but still underwater) approval ratings have inflated Democrats’
optimism.
Also distracting Republicans from keeping the spotlight on what they see
as the Democrats failure in handling the economy, crime, border security
and other top issues is former President Donald Trump, who has dominated
political headlines thanks to the House select committee’s investigation
into the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by right wing extremists
and other Trump supporters amid congressional certification of Biden’s
2020 Electoral College victory, and courtesy of the FBI search last month
of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida for classified materials.
The past few months also witnessed Democratic Senate candidates and groups
mostly out raise their GOP counterparts and dominate the airwaves with
campaign commercials. And a recent war of words between longtime Senate
Republican leader Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Sen. Rick Scott of
Florida, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, over
the quality of some GOP Senate nominees did the party no favors.
But Republicans are starting to fight back.
The McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, the top super PAC backing
Republican Senate incumbents and candidates, on Tuesday launched a massive
nine-figure ad blitz in five key Senate battlegrounds — Georgia, Nevada,
Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio, as well as continuing its spots in the
swing state of Pennsylvania. The group’s strategy: to portray Democratic
incumbents and candidates as too far to the left and tie them to Biden and
the continued high prices Americans are paying.
Here’s a look at the 11 Senate races that will likely determine if the
chamber’s majority will flip from blue to red.
PENNSYLVANIA (Republican controlled open seat)
Despite being sidelined for three months after suffering a stroke just
head of the Keystone State’s mid-May primary, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John
Fetterman, the Democratic nominee, retains the lead in both public opinion
polling and fundraising.
Fetterman, the tough talking, unconventional candidate and former mayor,
known for wearing shorts and hoodies, grabbed plenty of attention this
summer with his social media jabs at opponent Mehmet Oz — the celebrity
doctor and cardiac surgeon — for his New Jersey roots and love of crudité.
Oz, following a bruising primary that went into overtime, has yet to fully
consolidate the GOP base in the state, but a rally headlined by Trump this
past weekend will help put concerns about Oz’s conservative credentials to
rest. And the one-time star of the nationally known "Dr. Oz Show" has gone
on the attack in recent weeks over Fetterman’s unwillingness to commit to
a debate schedule as he continues to recover from his stroke.
DR. OZ DOUBLES DOWN IN PENNSYLVANIA SENATE FIGHT, SAYS FETTERMAN IS SCARED
TO DEBATE OR IS LYING ABOUT HEALTH
Fetterman, who came under attack by Oz for failing to join President Biden
last week during the president’s stop in eastern Pennsylvania, teamed up
near his hometown outside Pittsburgh with Biden on Labor Day.
GEORGIA (incumbent: Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock)
The Peach State, once a reliably red state, was one of six states, along
with Pennsylvania, that Biden narrowly won in the 2020 presidential
election. Two months later, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock edged then-
Sen. Kelly Loeffler in a special runoff election to fill the final two
years of former Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson’s term.
Republicans view Warnock, the senior pastor at Atlanta's Ebenezer Baptist
Church, where Martin Luther King Jr. used to preach, as very vulnerable as
he runs for re-election to a full six-year term. But Warnock has
dramatically outraised Republican nominee Herschel Walker to date and
holds a slight edge over his GOP challenger in an average of the latest
public opinion surveys.
Walker, who won a Heisman Trophy and helped steer the University of
Georgia to a college football national championship four decades ago,
jumped into the GOP race to face off against Warnock last summer after
months of support and encouragement to run for the Senate by Trump, his
longtime friend.
HERSCHEL WALKER, SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK SQUABBLE OVER DEBATES IN GEORGIA
SENATE RACE
Thanks to his legendary status among many in Georgia and his immense,
favorable name recognition in the Peach State, Walker trounced a field of
lesser-known GOP primary rivals, but the first-time candidate seemed
unprepared at first for the incoming fire he quickly received immediately
after the May primary.
WISCONSIN (incumbent: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson)
Democrats view Johnson, who was first elected in the Tea Party wave of
2010 and who’s become a strong supporter of Trump and his repeated re-
litigating of his 2020 election loss, as the most vulnerable Republican
running for re-election this cycle. Johnson’s facing a Democratic
challenge from Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in a crucial midwestern
battleground that Biden narrowly captured two years ago.
While Johnson enjoys a fundraising advantage over Barnes, the incumbent
trails his challenger in the latest polls. But his campaign and allied
Republicans have become aggressive in recent weeks in attacking Barnes and
tying him to the left-wing of the Democratic Party, including the "squad"
of House progressives.
NEVADA (incumbent: Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto)
Biden won Nevada by just two points, and in a state with a sizable
Spanish-speaking electorate — where the GOP’S made gains in recent cycles
— Republicans view the freshman Democratic senator as vulnerable.
But Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected senator, has run a solid
campaign to date and has easily outraised Republican challenger Adam
Laxalt, a former state attorney general whose grandfather Paul Laxalt
served as Nevada’s governor and senator.
ARIZONA (incumbent: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly)
In another southwestern state with a large Spanish speaking voting
population which Biden narrowly carried in 2020, first-term Democratic
Sen. Mark Kelly enjoys large fundraising and polling leads over GOP
nominee Blake Masters.
In a state that neighbors Mexico, Kelly has spotlighted his differences
with the White House over the crucial issue of border security, which has
partially buffered the senator from near constant attacks by Masters and
fellow Republicans over the issue of illegal immigration.
REPUBLICAN SENATE CANDIDATES HIT BACK ON ABORTION ATTACK ADS FROM
DEMOCRATS
Masters, a strong supporter of Trump’s unproven claims that the 2020
presidential election was "rigged" and "stolen," appears to have moderated
his hardline stance on another key issue — abortion — since his GOP
primary victory last month.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (incumbent: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan)
Republicans have long viewed Hassan, a former governor and first-term
senator, as beatable as she runs for re-election this year, thanks in part
to her lackluster approval ratings in the small but crucial New England
battleground state.
But due to a field of little-known and marginally funded Republican
challengers and a late primary that will be held next Tuesday (Sept. 13),
and also thanks to her strong fundraising and spotlighting of her
differences with the president at times, Democrats are confident that
Hassan will be able to win a second term in the Senate.
Republicans though, have not given up on New Hampshire, with the Senate
Leadership Fund — as first reported by Fox News — announcing last week
that it was spending $23 million to run ads attacking Hassan in the
general election campaign.
NORTH CAROLINA (Republican controlled open seat)
Republican Rep. Ted Budd has the very slight edge in the latest polling,
but former state Supreme Court chief justice Cheri Beasley, the Democratic
nominee, enjoys a solid fundraising lead, in the race to succeed retiring
GOP Sen. Richard Burr in a state Trump narrowly carried in 2020.
OHIO (Republican controlled open seat)
Longtime populist Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan has run a strong campaign to
date, staying extremely competitive with GOP nominee JD Vance in a state
Trump carried by eight points in the 2016 presidential election victory
and his 2020 re-election defeat
FLORIDA (incumbent: Republican Sen. Marco Rubio)
Democratic nominee Rep. Val Demings, a former Orlando police chief, has
consistently out raised Sen. Marco Rubio. But the two-term Republican
senator enjoys an advantage in the latest polls in a state that’s
increasingly turned from purple to red the past couple of election cycles.
COLORADO (incumbent: Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet)
Once a battleground state, Colorado has leaned blue for nearly two decades
and Biden captured the state by 13 points in the 2020 presidential
election. But following the victory by moderate Joe O'Dea — a construction
company owner — in the late June GOP primary, Republicans have become
increasingly optimistic that they can flip Democratic Sen. Michael
Bennet's seat from blue to red.
WASHINGTON STATE (incumbent: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray)
Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, who was first elected to the Senate in 1992,
won re-election in 2016 by 18 points in reliably blue Washington. But
Republicans are confident that nurse, military wife, and veterans rights
advocate Tiffany Smiley has a shot at upending Murray and turning the blue
seat red.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/11-senate-races-will-determine-whether-
democrats-republicans-control-chamber-after-midterm-elections
elections to reclaim the Senate majority
With just under nine weeks to go until November’s midterm elections, the
top non-partisan political handicappers point to a toss-up between the
Democrats and Republicans in the battle for the Senate majority.
The Senate is currently split 50/50 between the two major parties, but the
Democrats control the majority thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice
President Kamala Harris. That means the GOP needs a net gain of just one
seat to regain the majority they lost when they were swept in the Jan. 5,
2021, twin Senate runoffs in Georgia.
The Republicans are defending 21 of the 35 seats up for grabs in November,
including five seats held by retiring Republicans. And three of those open
seats are in the general election battlegrounds of Pennsylvania and North
Carolina and the competitive state of Ohio.
At the start of the summer, Republicans were energized as they pushed to
regain the House and Senate majorities, enjoying historical headwinds (the
party that wins the White House traditionally suffers setbacks in the
ensuing midterm elections) as well as a favorable political climate fueled
by skyrocketing gas prices, record inflation, soaring crime, and parents
discontent with their children’s schools following pandemic shutdowns.
FINAL SPRINT FOR CONTROL OF CONGRESS AND STATE GOVERNMENTS UNDERWAY
But Democrats seem to have regained momentum, following a string of ballot
box successes this summer in the wake of the blockbuster move by the
Supreme Court’s conservative majority to upend the landmark Roe v. Wade
ruling and send the combustible issue of legalized abortion back to the
states. And the summer-long easing of gas prices, a string of major
legislative victories for Democrats in Congress, and President Biden’s
rising (but still underwater) approval ratings have inflated Democrats’
optimism.
Also distracting Republicans from keeping the spotlight on what they see
as the Democrats failure in handling the economy, crime, border security
and other top issues is former President Donald Trump, who has dominated
political headlines thanks to the House select committee’s investigation
into the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by right wing extremists
and other Trump supporters amid congressional certification of Biden’s
2020 Electoral College victory, and courtesy of the FBI search last month
of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida for classified materials.
The past few months also witnessed Democratic Senate candidates and groups
mostly out raise their GOP counterparts and dominate the airwaves with
campaign commercials. And a recent war of words between longtime Senate
Republican leader Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Sen. Rick Scott of
Florida, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, over
the quality of some GOP Senate nominees did the party no favors.
But Republicans are starting to fight back.
The McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, the top super PAC backing
Republican Senate incumbents and candidates, on Tuesday launched a massive
nine-figure ad blitz in five key Senate battlegrounds — Georgia, Nevada,
Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio, as well as continuing its spots in the
swing state of Pennsylvania. The group’s strategy: to portray Democratic
incumbents and candidates as too far to the left and tie them to Biden and
the continued high prices Americans are paying.
Here’s a look at the 11 Senate races that will likely determine if the
chamber’s majority will flip from blue to red.
PENNSYLVANIA (Republican controlled open seat)
Despite being sidelined for three months after suffering a stroke just
head of the Keystone State’s mid-May primary, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John
Fetterman, the Democratic nominee, retains the lead in both public opinion
polling and fundraising.
Fetterman, the tough talking, unconventional candidate and former mayor,
known for wearing shorts and hoodies, grabbed plenty of attention this
summer with his social media jabs at opponent Mehmet Oz — the celebrity
doctor and cardiac surgeon — for his New Jersey roots and love of crudité.
Oz, following a bruising primary that went into overtime, has yet to fully
consolidate the GOP base in the state, but a rally headlined by Trump this
past weekend will help put concerns about Oz’s conservative credentials to
rest. And the one-time star of the nationally known "Dr. Oz Show" has gone
on the attack in recent weeks over Fetterman’s unwillingness to commit to
a debate schedule as he continues to recover from his stroke.
DR. OZ DOUBLES DOWN IN PENNSYLVANIA SENATE FIGHT, SAYS FETTERMAN IS SCARED
TO DEBATE OR IS LYING ABOUT HEALTH
Fetterman, who came under attack by Oz for failing to join President Biden
last week during the president’s stop in eastern Pennsylvania, teamed up
near his hometown outside Pittsburgh with Biden on Labor Day.
GEORGIA (incumbent: Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock)
The Peach State, once a reliably red state, was one of six states, along
with Pennsylvania, that Biden narrowly won in the 2020 presidential
election. Two months later, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock edged then-
Sen. Kelly Loeffler in a special runoff election to fill the final two
years of former Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson’s term.
Republicans view Warnock, the senior pastor at Atlanta's Ebenezer Baptist
Church, where Martin Luther King Jr. used to preach, as very vulnerable as
he runs for re-election to a full six-year term. But Warnock has
dramatically outraised Republican nominee Herschel Walker to date and
holds a slight edge over his GOP challenger in an average of the latest
public opinion surveys.
Walker, who won a Heisman Trophy and helped steer the University of
Georgia to a college football national championship four decades ago,
jumped into the GOP race to face off against Warnock last summer after
months of support and encouragement to run for the Senate by Trump, his
longtime friend.
HERSCHEL WALKER, SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK SQUABBLE OVER DEBATES IN GEORGIA
SENATE RACE
Thanks to his legendary status among many in Georgia and his immense,
favorable name recognition in the Peach State, Walker trounced a field of
lesser-known GOP primary rivals, but the first-time candidate seemed
unprepared at first for the incoming fire he quickly received immediately
after the May primary.
WISCONSIN (incumbent: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson)
Democrats view Johnson, who was first elected in the Tea Party wave of
2010 and who’s become a strong supporter of Trump and his repeated re-
litigating of his 2020 election loss, as the most vulnerable Republican
running for re-election this cycle. Johnson’s facing a Democratic
challenge from Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in a crucial midwestern
battleground that Biden narrowly captured two years ago.
While Johnson enjoys a fundraising advantage over Barnes, the incumbent
trails his challenger in the latest polls. But his campaign and allied
Republicans have become aggressive in recent weeks in attacking Barnes and
tying him to the left-wing of the Democratic Party, including the "squad"
of House progressives.
NEVADA (incumbent: Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto)
Biden won Nevada by just two points, and in a state with a sizable
Spanish-speaking electorate — where the GOP’S made gains in recent cycles
— Republicans view the freshman Democratic senator as vulnerable.
But Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected senator, has run a solid
campaign to date and has easily outraised Republican challenger Adam
Laxalt, a former state attorney general whose grandfather Paul Laxalt
served as Nevada’s governor and senator.
ARIZONA (incumbent: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly)
In another southwestern state with a large Spanish speaking voting
population which Biden narrowly carried in 2020, first-term Democratic
Sen. Mark Kelly enjoys large fundraising and polling leads over GOP
nominee Blake Masters.
In a state that neighbors Mexico, Kelly has spotlighted his differences
with the White House over the crucial issue of border security, which has
partially buffered the senator from near constant attacks by Masters and
fellow Republicans over the issue of illegal immigration.
REPUBLICAN SENATE CANDIDATES HIT BACK ON ABORTION ATTACK ADS FROM
DEMOCRATS
Masters, a strong supporter of Trump’s unproven claims that the 2020
presidential election was "rigged" and "stolen," appears to have moderated
his hardline stance on another key issue — abortion — since his GOP
primary victory last month.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (incumbent: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan)
Republicans have long viewed Hassan, a former governor and first-term
senator, as beatable as she runs for re-election this year, thanks in part
to her lackluster approval ratings in the small but crucial New England
battleground state.
But due to a field of little-known and marginally funded Republican
challengers and a late primary that will be held next Tuesday (Sept. 13),
and also thanks to her strong fundraising and spotlighting of her
differences with the president at times, Democrats are confident that
Hassan will be able to win a second term in the Senate.
Republicans though, have not given up on New Hampshire, with the Senate
Leadership Fund — as first reported by Fox News — announcing last week
that it was spending $23 million to run ads attacking Hassan in the
general election campaign.
NORTH CAROLINA (Republican controlled open seat)
Republican Rep. Ted Budd has the very slight edge in the latest polling,
but former state Supreme Court chief justice Cheri Beasley, the Democratic
nominee, enjoys a solid fundraising lead, in the race to succeed retiring
GOP Sen. Richard Burr in a state Trump narrowly carried in 2020.
OHIO (Republican controlled open seat)
Longtime populist Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan has run a strong campaign to
date, staying extremely competitive with GOP nominee JD Vance in a state
Trump carried by eight points in the 2016 presidential election victory
and his 2020 re-election defeat
FLORIDA (incumbent: Republican Sen. Marco Rubio)
Democratic nominee Rep. Val Demings, a former Orlando police chief, has
consistently out raised Sen. Marco Rubio. But the two-term Republican
senator enjoys an advantage in the latest polls in a state that’s
increasingly turned from purple to red the past couple of election cycles.
COLORADO (incumbent: Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet)
Once a battleground state, Colorado has leaned blue for nearly two decades
and Biden captured the state by 13 points in the 2020 presidential
election. But following the victory by moderate Joe O'Dea — a construction
company owner — in the late June GOP primary, Republicans have become
increasingly optimistic that they can flip Democratic Sen. Michael
Bennet's seat from blue to red.
WASHINGTON STATE (incumbent: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray)
Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, who was first elected to the Senate in 1992,
won re-election in 2016 by 18 points in reliably blue Washington. But
Republicans are confident that nurse, military wife, and veterans rights
advocate Tiffany Smiley has a shot at upending Murray and turning the blue
seat red.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/11-senate-races-will-determine-whether-
democrats-republicans-control-chamber-after-midterm-elections
Eavel
Sep 23, 2022, 2:16:52 PM9/23/22
to
On 23 Sep 2022, "jecorbe...@yahoo.com" <jecorbe...@yahoo.com>
posted some news:be83fe82-42fc-49a0...@googlegroups.com:
> On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 3:30:26 AM UTC-4, zinn wrote:
>> Republicans need a net gain of just one seat in November's midterm
>> elections to reclaim the Senate majority
>>
>> With just under nine weeks to go until November’s midterm electio
> ns, the
>> top non-partisan political handicappers point to a toss-up between
>> the Democrats and Republicans in the battle for the Senate majority.
>>
>> https://www.foxnews.com/politics/11-senate-races-will-determine-whethe
>> r-
>
>> democrats-republicans-control-chamber-after-midterm-elections
>
> It comes down to eight states, four currently held by Democrats and
> four by Republicans. The GOP has to hold serve in the states they hold
> and pick up at least one Democrat held seat. The polls seem to
> indicate the Democrats have a very slight edge in those eight seats
> but Real Clear Politics has projected that the Republicans will pick
> up two seats. I don't know what they base their projections on because
> their polling average indicates the Democrats would pick up one seat
> with Georgia being tied according the current polling average.
>
> There is always the possibility that an underdog could win a race
> that's not considered a tossup, but I wouldn't count on it.
I will admit to messing with pollsters to skew results. I made the
error of participating in several polls and now seem to be on a list.
Some days I am hardcore Republican, others Democrat or independent. I
lie appropriately in each case.
posted some news:be83fe82-42fc-49a0...@googlegroups.com:
> On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 3:30:26 AM UTC-4, zinn wrote:
>> Republicans need a net gain of just one seat in November's midterm
>> elections to reclaim the Senate majority
>>
>> With just under nine weeks to go until November’s midterm electio
> ns, the
>> top non-partisan political handicappers point to a toss-up between
>> the Democrats and Republicans in the battle for the Senate majority.
>>
>> r-
>
>> democrats-republicans-control-chamber-after-midterm-elections
>
> It comes down to eight states, four currently held by Democrats and
> four by Republicans. The GOP has to hold serve in the states they hold
> and pick up at least one Democrat held seat. The polls seem to
> indicate the Democrats have a very slight edge in those eight seats
> but Real Clear Politics has projected that the Republicans will pick
> up two seats. I don't know what they base their projections on because
> their polling average indicates the Democrats would pick up one seat
> with Georgia being tied according the current polling average.
>
> There is always the possibility that an underdog could win a race
> that's not considered a tossup, but I wouldn't count on it.
I will admit to messing with pollsters to skew results. I made the
error of participating in several polls and now seem to be on a list.
Some days I am hardcore Republican, others Democrat or independent. I
lie appropriately in each case.
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