[Overdue...] Europe holds its breath as Italy expected to vote in far-right leader

[Leroy N. Soetoro]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/25/europe-holds-its-breath-as-
italy-prepares-to-vote-in-far-right-leader-giorgia-meloni

Coalition led by Giorgia Meloni would be country’s most radical government
since Mussolini

Italians are voting in an election that is forecast to deliver the
country’s most radical rightwing government since the end of the second
world war, and a prime minister ready to become a model for nationalist
parties across Europe.

A coalition led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, a party with
neofascist origins, is expected by polls ahead of the vote to secure a
comfortable victory in both houses of parliament while taking between 44
and 47% of the vote.

Meloni’s party is also set to scoop the biggest share of the votes within
the coalition, which includes the far-right League, led by Matteo Salvini,
and Forza Italia, headed by Silvio Berlusconi, meaning she could become
Italy’s first female prime minister.

The coalition’s victory, however, raises questions about the country’s
alliances in Europe, and while Meloni has sought to send reassuring
messages, her conquest of power is unlikely to be welcomed in Paris or
Berlin.

Germany’s governing Social Democratic party warned last week that her win
would be bad for European cooperation. Lars Klingbeil, the chairman of
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD, said Meloni had aligned herself with “anti-
democratic” figures such as Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán.

Earlier this month, Meloni’s MEPs voted against a resolution that
condemned Hungary as “a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy”. Meloni is
also allied to Poland’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice party, the
anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats and Spain’s far-right Vox party.

The 45-year-old firebrand politician from Rome received an endorsement
from Vox towards the end of her campaign, and in response said the two
parties were linked by “mutual respect, friendship and loyalty” while
hoping victory for Brothers of Italy would give Vox some thrust in Spain.

“Meloni has an ambition to represent a model not only for Italy, but for
Europe – this is something new [for the right in Italy] compared with the
past,” said Nadia Urbinati, a political theorist at New York’s Columbia
University and the University of Bologna. “She has contacts with other
conservative parties, who want a Europe with less civil rights … the model
is there and so is the project.”

Mattia Diletti, a politics professor at Rome’s Sapienza University, said
Meloni would win thanks to her ability to be ideological but pragmatic,
something that has allowed her to pip the French far-right leader, Marine
Le Pen, to the post of becoming western Europe’s model for nationalism.

However, she is unlikely to rock the boat, at least at the beginning, as
she wants to secure continuing flows of cash under Italy’s €191.5bn
(£166bn) EU Covid recovery plan, the largest in the EU. The coalition has
said it is not seeking to renegotiate the plan, but would like to make
changes.

“Ambiguity is the key to understanding Meloni,” Diletti said. “She’s
really interested in compromising with the EU on economic politics. But if
the EU pushes her too much on the Italian government, she can always
revert back to her safe zone as being a populist rightwing leader. She
will do what she needs to do to stay in power.”

Salvini’s potential return to the interior ministry will also dampen hopes
for a breakthrough in the EU’s long-stalled attempt to reform its
migration system by sharing asylum seekers across member states. Salvini,
who has close ties with Le Pen, said he “can’t wait” to resume his policy
of blocking migrant rescue ships from entering Italian ports.

On Ukraine, Meloni has condemned Russia’s invasion and supported sending
weapons to the war-torn country, but it remains unclear whether her
government will back the eighth round of EU sanctions being discussed in
Brussels. Salvini has claimed sanctions were bringing Italy to its knees,
although he never blocked any EU measures against Russia when in Mario
Draghi’s broad coalition government, which collapsed in July.

Voting started at 7am on Sunday, and turnout stood at about 51,8% by 7pm
local time. The share of undecided voters was at 25% before voting began,
meaning the rightwing alliance might win a slimmer majority than pollsters
originally suggested. A leftwing alliance led by the Democratic party is
predicted to get 22-27% of the vote.

Several seats in southern Italian regions, such as Puglia and Calabria,
are also potentially in play after a mini-revival by the populist Five
Star Movement, which regained support after promising to maintain its
flagship policy, the basic income, if the party re-enters government.

There was a steady flow of voters to a booth in Esquilino, a multicultural
district in Rome, on Sunday morning, but the mood was one of despondency.

“It feels as if we’re on a rudderless boat,” said Carlo Russo. “All we
heard during the election campaign was an exchange of insults between the
various parties rather than an exchange of ideas. And in moments of
confusion such as this, people vote for the person who seems to be the
strongest.”

Fausto Maccari, who runs a newspaper stand, said he won’t vote for the
right but is unsure who he will back. “The choices are poor,” added
Maccari, who is in his 60s. “For example, I look at Berlusconi and he
reminds me of a comic character. At his age, he shouldn’t be doing
politics. It would be like me, at my age, trying to be a footballer like
Maradona.”

Many Italians who support Meloni are doing so because she is yet to be
tried and tested in government, and are attracted by her determination and
loyalty to her ideals.

“She presents herself as a capable, but not arrogant, woman,” said
Urbinati. “She gets things done and is dedicated, but without this
masculine adrenaline that wants power at all costs.”


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