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Re: No soft landing: The Democrat wrecked US economy is going to fall into recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's chief economist says
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Reed
Feb 17, 2024, 3:36:17 AMFeb 17
to
On 14 Mar 2022, Rudy Canoza <notg...@gmail.com> posted some
news:kkNXJ.107919$3jp8....@fx33.iad:
> Democrats are to blame for the state of the US economy and nobody
> else. All Democrats should be executed.
The US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's
chief US economist said.
The economic data seems strong but is hinting at signs of a decline, as
seen in the latest jobs report.
Credit-card delinquency rates are also on the rise, and retail sales
data has shown a drop in activity.
The soft-landing dream is over; instead, the US economy is headed for a
recession in the middle of 2024, Citi says.
"There's this very powerful and seductive narrative around a soft
landing, and we're just not seeing it in the data," Citi's chief US
economist, Andrew Hollenhorst, said in a CNBC interview.
On the surface, the data looks great: The economy is benefiting from
historically low unemployment, strong consumer spending, and robust GDP
growth.
But there's more going on with the numbers than meets the eye.
"The question is where are these forward-looking indicators showing us
that we're going to go," Hollenhorst said.
One place the economy is showing a weakness is the labor market. January
had a blowout jobs report, adding 353,000 jobs to the economy. But
Hollenhorst noted that if you scratch beneath the surface, the number of
hours worked is falling, the number of full-time workers has decreased,
and sectors such as the restaurant industry have stalled on hiring.
"That's the key to the economy — what happens in the labor market,"
Hollenhorst said. "If the unemployment rate stays low, people continue
to spend, the economy holds up." But he added that the unemployment rate
was expected to start rising, which would be "the sign that we're going
to have a more material decline in the US economy."
Hollenhorst also said inflation was still too high. This week's data
from the consumer price index did show a higher-than-expected uptick in
monthly inflation, which dragged stocks lower on Tuesday.
Credit-card delinquency rates are also rising. The top economist David
Rosenberg has said a consumer credit default cycle has already arrived,
with one in every 12 credit-card holders missing their payments.
"There may be some consumers out there with excess savings, but those
consumers exposed to floating credit-card debt with higher rates now,
that have been pulling on those excess savings to continue to consume,
continue to spend, now those delinquencies are picking up," Hollenhorst
said.
And consumer weakness is also exposing itself in retail sales numbers.
Thursday's release showed a significant drop in activity, posting a 0.8%
decline in January.
Hollenhorst isn't alone in his pessimism. Apollo Management's Torsten
Sløk recently echoed the sentiment that a soft landing is now the "least
likely" scenario.
https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-us-economy-job-market-u
nemployment-soft-landing-citi-2024-2
news:kkNXJ.107919$3jp8....@fx33.iad:
> Democrats are to blame for the state of the US economy and nobody
> else. All Democrats should be executed.
The US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's
chief US economist said.
The economic data seems strong but is hinting at signs of a decline, as
seen in the latest jobs report.
Credit-card delinquency rates are also on the rise, and retail sales
data has shown a drop in activity.
The soft-landing dream is over; instead, the US economy is headed for a
recession in the middle of 2024, Citi says.
"There's this very powerful and seductive narrative around a soft
landing, and we're just not seeing it in the data," Citi's chief US
economist, Andrew Hollenhorst, said in a CNBC interview.
On the surface, the data looks great: The economy is benefiting from
historically low unemployment, strong consumer spending, and robust GDP
growth.
But there's more going on with the numbers than meets the eye.
"The question is where are these forward-looking indicators showing us
that we're going to go," Hollenhorst said.
One place the economy is showing a weakness is the labor market. January
had a blowout jobs report, adding 353,000 jobs to the economy. But
Hollenhorst noted that if you scratch beneath the surface, the number of
hours worked is falling, the number of full-time workers has decreased,
and sectors such as the restaurant industry have stalled on hiring.
"That's the key to the economy — what happens in the labor market,"
Hollenhorst said. "If the unemployment rate stays low, people continue
to spend, the economy holds up." But he added that the unemployment rate
was expected to start rising, which would be "the sign that we're going
to have a more material decline in the US economy."
Hollenhorst also said inflation was still too high. This week's data
from the consumer price index did show a higher-than-expected uptick in
monthly inflation, which dragged stocks lower on Tuesday.
Credit-card delinquency rates are also rising. The top economist David
Rosenberg has said a consumer credit default cycle has already arrived,
with one in every 12 credit-card holders missing their payments.
"There may be some consumers out there with excess savings, but those
consumers exposed to floating credit-card debt with higher rates now,
that have been pulling on those excess savings to continue to consume,
continue to spend, now those delinquencies are picking up," Hollenhorst
said.
And consumer weakness is also exposing itself in retail sales numbers.
Thursday's release showed a significant drop in activity, posting a 0.8%
decline in January.
Hollenhorst isn't alone in his pessimism. Apollo Management's Torsten
Sløk recently echoed the sentiment that a soft landing is now the "least
likely" scenario.
https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-us-economy-job-market-u
nemployment-soft-landing-citi-2024-2
pyotr filipivich
Feb 17, 2024, 12:03:32 PMFeb 17
to
Let the Record show that Reed <re...@work.com> on or about Sat, 17 Feb
2024 09:36:11 +0100 (CET) did write, type or otherwise cause to appear
in talk.politics.guns the following:
I prefer the old fashioned term: a Business Panic. As banks fail
domino fashion, as liquidity "dries up", as interest rates climb like
a squirrel on double espresso. The Fed will continuing printing
money, further devaluing the dollar.
And that's before any Bright Ideas by the Biden cabal blow up in
their face internationally.
tschus
pyotr
--
pyotr filipivich
"That rifle on the wall of the labourer's cottage or
working class flat is the symbol of democracy. It is
our job to see that it stays there." ? George Orwell
2024 09:36:11 +0100 (CET) did write, type or otherwise cause to appear
in talk.politics.guns the following:
>On 14 Mar 2022, Rudy Canoza <notg...@gmail.com> posted some
>news:kkNXJ.107919$3jp8....@fx33.iad:
>
>> Democrats are to blame for the state of the US economy and nobody
>> else. All Democrats should be executed.
>
>The US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's
>chief US economist said.
"a recession" - right.
>news:kkNXJ.107919$3jp8....@fx33.iad:
>
>> Democrats are to blame for the state of the US economy and nobody
>> else. All Democrats should be executed.
>
>The US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's
>chief US economist said.
I prefer the old fashioned term: a Business Panic. As banks fail
domino fashion, as liquidity "dries up", as interest rates climb like
a squirrel on double espresso. The Fed will continuing printing
money, further devaluing the dollar.
And that's before any Bright Ideas by the Biden cabal blow up in
their face internationally.
tschus
pyotr
--
pyotr filipivich
"That rifle on the wall of the labourer's cottage or
working class flat is the symbol of democracy. It is
our job to see that it stays there." ? George Orwell
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