California's Recall Is On; Near-Bankruptcy Problems Continue
Dave Simpson
the right thing and has gone without game-playing straight to the
recall as is current state law in California. There will be a slate
of candidates to be Davis's replacement, and it will be early --
October 7. No Fooling Around. Hats off to Bustamante.
So far, no Democrats are offering to run as replacements if Davis is
recalled.
All kinds of people are starting to enter other than Democrats.
Little in the news is Green Party former 1960s activist and latter-day
financial manager Manuel Camejo, who might well get the huge Hispanic
vote in California, not only due to ethnicity or heritage but also
with his pro-immigrant advocacy.
On the Republican side, or possibly independent side, everyone is
awaiting the decision of Arnold Schwarzenegger whether or not he'll
run for governor as a Republican. Everyone already knows Issa, the
bankroller of the recall campaign, is going to run, and others have
begun to express interest. As the Democrats said (quoted in today's
New York Times, "the animals are starting to be released from the zoo"
[partially paraphrased; "animals" and "zoo" are not).
There's even rumor of Michael Savage(!) as a possible candidate as
well.
His platform is straightforward and sensible enough, but too
controversial to so many lefties and immigrants in California it
doesn't stand a chance, which actually speaks volumes of how badly
California has become, how low it has descended under its
"Massachusetts Lite" left-wing Democratic establishment in Sacramento.
I'll list the platform below. It will, sadly, probably cause people
to vote for someone else, such as Camejo. (I like Camejo's idea of an
independent audit of California's finances, but many things he wants
are too far left to make California better; they would make California
worse. I am confident that having someone so far left as he isn't the
disaster it would be superficially; the worst excesses he might
attempt would be checked by more normal, mainstream-view politicians
in Sacramento.)
Note that looking ahead gives us room for thought. Whoever takes over
after the recall election still has on hand a nearly-40-billion
deficit and huge problems in the state. Coupled with that will be a
resentful, even-worse lot of Democratic establishment people who will
not be averse to being even worse than they have been toward
non-Democrats and especially toward reformers. Any replacements in
Sacramento may quickly be given a strong case of "buyer's remorse"!
Also, while the Democrats preferred that the recall election be
delayed so as to occur with the primaries, when Democratic turnout
would be bigger and which would give the Democrats more time to attack
the recall in campaign ads, there is one thing in the Dems' favor in
that an affirmative-action-related vote is going to happen at the same
time as the recall vote and the Dems believe that this other vote will
spark greater Dem turnout.
We shall see who enters the Wild, Wild Race to Replace Gray Davis.
Savage's "consideration" page follows. Point #4 will drive Hispanics
to Camejo (the Green) in a flash. Camejo should pray for Savage's
entry and exploit it.
Who else will enter the fray?
(Barbra Streisand, where are you?)
Meanwhile, California's credit rating took another BIG hit because of
its overspending and failure to balance its budget. See last article
below.
Davis deserves to be recalled. Too bad the other Democrats also can't
be.
...
[Michael Savage]
I believe in the Golden State not the Welfare State.
I am exploring a platform based on:
1. Enforcing Proposition 187, a ballot initiative approved by the
people of the state that would have ended taxpayer subsidization of
medical and education services for illegal aliens. Savage contends
enforcement of the initiative would save California taxpayers $8
billion to $10 billion.
2. The deportation of all criminal illegal aliens in the state. Savage
says this action would save $3 billion to $5 billion.
3. Hospitalization of the mentally-ill homeless. Again, Savage claims
this would save $3 billion to $5 billion dollars in welfare payments.
4. Enforce another state ballot initiative declaring English the
official language. If you can't speak English, then don't vote in our
elections. If you're too lazy to learn how to speak, read or write
English, then don't vote in our elections. English only on all
ballots. English only in all business dealings in the state of
California.
...
[AP]
Candidates jockey for position in California governor recall election
SACRAMENTO --
Candidates hoping to replace Gov Gray Davis if he is recalled Oct. 7
have just 16 days to get into the race, and intense jockeying is
already under way over who could end up leading the nation's most
populous state.
Under California law, candidates to replace the subject of a recall
must file their papers 59 days before the vote. That means when Lt.
Gov. Cruz Bustamante scheduled the election for Oct. 7, potential
candidates had only until Aug. 9 to act.
The only declared major-party candidate so far is Rep. Darrell Issa,
R-Vista, who spent $1.71 million to fund the recall and is completing
plans to campaign around the state. Other potential Republican
contenders include actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Los Angeles
Mayor Richard Riordan and last year's failed GOP gubernatorial nominee
Bill Simon.
"I have no announcement to make, if that's your question,"
Schwarzenegger said Thursday during a brief press conference in Mexico
City where he was promoting his movie "Terminator 3."
Riordan said he will consider running if Schwarzenegger does not.
"I think Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is my first choice, would do a
tremendous job," Riordan told KNBC-TV in Los Angeles. "If for some
reason Arnold decides not to do it I will take a hard look."
Simon filed papers forming an exploratory committee, spokesman Brent
Lowder said, and staff members went to the Los Angeles County election
offices Thursday to get nomination papers.
State Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, also filed papers this
week to form an exploratory committee.
Still another Republican possibility emerged: Jack Kemp, the GOP vice
presidential nominee in 1996.
Several of his supporters called Kemp on Thursday urging him to put
his name on the ballot, according to three GOP officials with ties to
the former New York congressman and Housing and Urban Development
secretary. The associates said Kemp was flattered by the requests, but
it was unclear how seriously he was considering the race.
The Los Angeles native and former star quarterback for the San Diego
Chargers football team did not immediately return a message left after
hours Thursday at Empower America, the Washington-based conservative
think tank he helped found.
Candidates must submit signatures from 65 registered voters of their
own party and $3,500, or 10,000 signatures in lieu of the filing fee.
Meanwhile, Davis formed a new campaign committee to fight the recall,
and the group responsible for getting the measure on the ballot honed
campaign strategy to get it passed.
The campaign promised to be short, expensive and fierce.
"You're talking about a total free-for-all, an election where anything
can happen, not a lot of time for strategic planning," said Democratic
political consultant Darry Sragow.
"It's a situation in which it's very difficult to choose a strategy
because you're not talking about two candidates going head to head and
someone's got to get a majority."
The state's Democratic officeholders have closed ranks behind Davis
and say they will not run, and state Democratic Party spokesman Bob
Mulholland said the party can now focus on the Republican candidates.
"Up until today it was a referendum on Gray Davis. Now it's a
comparison between Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat progressive, against a
Republican bum," Mulholland said.
Davis, however, indicated he would focus on beating the recall, not on
the other candidates. The governor's approval ratings are in the low
20s with voters blaming him for the state's budget deficit and energy
crisis.
"I'm not running against anyone else. The election is whether or not
to retain Gov. Davis. That's the election and I'm going to just focus
on the arguments for retaining me and the arguments against change,"
he told reporters after an event at the Los Angeles County sheriff's
headquarters. "It's a very risky business to change governors in one
day."
The nation's last gubernatorial recall election was in 1921, when
North Dakota Gov. Lynn J. Frazier was removed from office.
...
[Sacramento Bee]
Wall Street slashes state bond rating
The mark plummets three notches, just two away from junk-bond status.
By Dale Kasler
An impatient Wall Street punished California for its financial mess
Thursday, lowering the state's bond rating by a stunning three notches
and demanding more progress toward a balanced budget.
The downgrade by Standard & Poor's Corp. underscores California's
deteriorating relationship with Wall Street just as the state plans
two crucial bond sales.
S&P, one of the leading Wall Street credit-rating firms, lowered
California's rating to a worst-in-the-nation "BBB," a move that will
cost the state $34 million now and perhaps $1 billion in future higher
interest costs.
The rating is just two notches above dreaded junk-bond status, the
point at which many big investors can't buy the bonds.
S&P acted shortly before the Senate's top leaders declared they've
reached a tentative budget deal. But S&P was unmoved by the senators'
action.
"It doesn't really change our opinion," said Steve Zimmermann, an
analyst at S&P. "We don't even look at anything until there's a signed
budget."
S&P cited a lack of progress on a balanced budget. The credit rating
firm also said the recall election facing Gov. Gray Davis will
intensify the political drama in Sacramento, creating another obstacle
toward fixing the budget.
"The recall makes it more difficult; it just adds to the noise,"
Zimmermann said.
Davis and other top Democratic state officials, reacting to the
downgrade, called on the Legislature to pass a budget soon.
"Today's S&P downgrade is our latest and loudest wake-up call," Davis
said.
The downgrade weakens California's borrowing power at a particularly
dicey moment: The state is alienating Wall Street -- some big bond
buyers bowed out of a California deal last month -- just as it needs
investors more than ever.
California expects it will have to borrow $3 billion this fall to keep
from going broke. And the Senate's tentative budget deal includes a
$10.7 billion "deficit bond" that would defer some of the deficit pain
to future years.
Owing to the peculiarities of the market, both of those bonds would
carry their own ratings -- and could be rated higher than California's
general rating of BBB. Yet both bonds' marketability will depend on
investors' willingness to lend the state money -- a willingness that's
shrinking. Bond market analysts believe some bond buyers might shy
away from the offerings.
Wall Street has indicated that it's far less apt to swallow the $10.7
billion bond unless it's backed by a "dedicated" stream of tax
revenue.
The budget compromise, unveiled Thursday by Senate President Pro Tem
John Burton, D-San Francisco, and Senate Republican leader Jim Brulte
of Rancho Cucamonga, includes a complicated tax swap that carves out
revenue to repay the big bond.
Beyond that, however, S&P and other credit rating firms have made it
clear that the budget has to include a meaningful reduction in the
"structural deficit." Wall Street wants the budget balanced with a
combination of higher taxes and spending cuts -- not one-time
adjustments that will leave the state still facing a big deficit in
future years.
"We haven't seen any progress toward that," Zimmermann said.
Brulte, however, said the budget compromise should please Wall Street.
Eliminating a $38 billion deficit in one year is impossible, he said;
a deal that leaves the budget about $7 billion in the red would be
substantial progress. "I would consider that a huge step forward and I
think the markets would consider that a huge step forward," he said.
Credit ratings usually move up and down one notch at a time. This time
the state's rating fell three notches, from "A" to "BBB." The rating
is the lowest in California's history and matches the lowest any state
has received; Massachusetts stalled at "BBB" from 1989 to 1992, said
S&P analyst Alex Fraser.
The downgrade triggers a $34 million penalty payment to seven firms
that co-signed an $11 billion bond sold in June, said state Controller
Steve Westly.
Beyond that, the downgrade will cost $1 billion in higher interest on
the $24 billion in bonds authorized but not yet sold, said Treasurer
Phil Angelides. The higher costs are for the 30-year life of the
bonds.
S&P downgraded a second, smaller group of bonds three notches to
BBB-minus.
Moody's Investors Service, the other big credit rating firm, has
threatened to downgrade California but hasn't yet done so.
TellTheTruth
take over.
I predict there will be at least 100 candidates listed.
Anyone taking bets?
"Dave Simpson" <david_l...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:23e7f86e.03072...@posting.google.com...
Dave Simpson
> Cruz Bustamente, the Democratic lieutanent governor of California,
CORRECTION: Bustamante. Sorry.
He ought to be the Democrats' at-least-default alternative on the
ballot. The Democrats are suspicious at not offering anyone. They
may be getting ready to punt because they know Davis is Toast, as many
of his critics have stated on USENET.
Are the Democrats hoping to stay in the game in the Sacramento
legislature until the next gubernatorial election, and also by having
Bustamante being the way Mike Curb was toward Jerry Brown every once
in a while, dropping a bomb as soon as Brown's aircraft left
California air space?
http://www.ltg.ca.gov/office_of/previousgovs/faqs.asp
Dave Simpson