NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil futures fell Monday on a widening belief that OPEC
ministers will agree to raise crude production during a meeting next week.
At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices retreated further from their recent highs
now that Thanksgiving travel demand has faded. The average national price of
a gallon of gas slipped 0.1 cent overnight to $3.085 a gallon, according to
AAA and the Oil Price Information Service, and is off 2.7 cents in less than
two weeks.
Analysts say gas prices are likely to hold steady or even fall unless oil
prices rise to $100 a barrel or higher. But crude's ascendancy has been
stymied in recent weeks in part by conflicting signals from Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries officials about the cartel's willingness to
add supplies to the global oil market. Over the weekend, one of the
perceived obstacles to increased OPEC supplies appeared to have been removed
when Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein said his country is willing to lift
production if needed.
"If statistics and data indicate there is a need to produce more oil, we
have the capacity to increase the output and supply more oil for the
market," Nozari told reporters.
Many traders believe Saudi Arabia is pushing for production increases, but
faced opposition from Iran and Venezuela, among other OPEC members.
Light, sweet crude for January delivery fell $1.45 to $96.73 a barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil reached a trading record of $99.29 last
week, and is within the range of inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980.
Depending on how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be
worth $96 to $103 or more today.
"We believe the markets have yet to discount the outcome of the OPEC meeting
on Dec. 5, where there will be immense -- and we believe ultimately
successful pressure -- on the cartel to raise quotas," said Edward Meir, an
analyst at MF Global UK Ltd., in a research note.
The declines were limited, however, by forecasts for colder weather over the
next couple of weeks. Natural gas for December delivery rose 16.4 cents to
$7.864 per 1,000 cubic feet on the Nymex. December heating oil futures fell
1.43 cents to $2.6899 a gallon.
"Cold weather does have an impact on heating oil, (which) is down less than
the rest of the complex," said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at
Fimat USA LLC.
Gasoline futures for December delivery fell 2.9 cents to $2.438 a gallon on
the Nymex.
In London, January Brent crude fell 78 cents to $94.98 a barrel on the ICE
Futures exchange.
Analysts warned that oil futures could be volatile Monday as traders
returning from Thanksgiving squared positions. Giving traders additional
reason to buy was the dollar, which fell slightly against the euro on Monday
as speculation continued that the Federal Reserve will again cut interest
rates.
Oil futures offer a hedge against a weak dollar, and oil futures bought and
sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the greenback
is falling.
Many analysts believe that pushing oil futures to $100 a barrel remains a
goal of many investors and traders. Indeed, some market observers blame
speculative investing for much of the fall rally in crude prices, which are
up 43 percent since August.
Some analysts predict oil prices will fall sharply at some point this year.
The question analysts are debating is whether that will happen before or
after oil reaches the elusive $100 mark. A failure to reach that level,
which has been predicted for several weeks now, could in and of itself be
enough to deflate prices, said Peter Beutel, president of energy risk
management firm Cameron Hanover, in a research note.
"We have reached the point ... where the inability to touch or break $100
this week would be seen as rather a spectacular failure," Beutel said.
Associated Press Writers Pablo Gorondi in Budapest and Gillian Wong in
Singapore contributed to this report.
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