An insider's view of Christie's N.J. victory - During "that roller-coaster ride," the campaign focused on independent voters, and the issues.

[Lickin' Ass And Goin' Insane]

(Hope you enjoy this as much as I did!)
An insider's view of Christie's N.J. victory - During "that roller-
coaster ride," the campaign focused on independent voters, and the
issues.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20091115_An_insider_s_view_of_Christie_s_N_J__victory.html
Russ Schriefer
was the media consultant for Republican gubernatorial candidate
Christopher J. Christie
It was somewhere off the New Jersey Turnpike, Exit 4, I think, sitting
in a dark room looking through a one-way mirror, eating bad food and
too many M&Ms; something was happening I hadn't seen in a while. The
group of independent voters we selected for this focus group didn't
run screaming from the room when we mentioned former President George
W. Bush and Christopher J. Christie in the same sentence, and they
didn't swoon when President Obama embraced Gov. Corzine. It was then
we knew we had a chance.
On Nov. 3, Christie was elected the 55th governor of New Jersey - the
first Republican to be elected to statewide office since Christine
Todd Whitman in 1997. And while Whitman and her GOP predecessor, Gov.
Tom Kean, won their initial races in squeakers, Christie was elected
by a margin of more than 100,000 votes.
So at a time when New Jersey is dark blue, why was Christie able to
win?
We learned at the focus group that, for the first time in five years,
independents were open to a Republican message. After the 2004
election, independents stopped listening to Republicans. It reminded
me of arguing with your kids who start screaming, "You're not
listening to me!" And they're right, you're not.
This summer, when Christie led Corzine by 12 to 15 points, we knew the
number was inflated. Many voters, some who had never supported a
Republican, would ultimately support the Democrat. And while it was
certainly stomach-churning to watch a double-digit lead shrink to
almost nothing, Corzine's support never grew. Roughly 40 percent of
the electorate supported him in our first poll and only slightly more
supported him in our final survey. However, throughout that roller-
coaster ride we kept our eye on independent voters and where they were
headed.
Just as important as the political environment being "open" to
electing a Republican was the candidate and his message.
For seven years Christie earned a stellar reputation as a U.S.
attorney, convicting more than 136 public officials on corruption
charges. His work earned bipartisan praise, even from Corzine. We
believed from day one that Christie's record as an independent crime
fighter gave voters the permission they needed to believe he could
change Trenton, particularly with taxes and the economy. This summer,
when an FBI raid brought down numerous public officials, it was less
about corruption and more about New Jerseyans once again being
disappointed by a state government out of control.
In a time of economic uncertainty, voters, particularly independents,
cared more about New Jersey's status as the highest taxed state in the
nation than about Christie's driving record or his weight (both of
which were subjects of Corzine ads). By focusing on the economic
message and not getting distracted by launching retaliatory personal
attacks on Corzine, we kept talking to voters about issues they cared
about.
Only once was the campaign drawn off its economic message. Since we
were being outspent more than 31/2-to-1, we couldn't respond to every
attack from Corzine. It was only when he started running an ad
claiming Christie would take away mammograms for women that the
campaign responded. We saw, both through polling and anecdotally, that
this particular noneconomic message was hurting us with independent
women.
And while there was an internal debate as to the form the response
needed to take, it was quickly shut down by the candidate, who
strongly believed he needed to answer the charge himself. He was
right. Christie's mother was a breast cancer survivor and his outrage
over the governor's attack was genuine. After running Christie's
response, we started to see our numbers stabilize with women,
independents, and moderates.
Chris Daggett, the third-party independent candidate, eventually
became the wild card, serving as a placeholder for disaffected voters
while they chose between the two major-party candidates. While some
polls had Daggett garnering 20 percent of the vote, we knew that
wouldn't last, and it was just a question of how fast he would sink
and where his voters would land. Under scrutiny, his tax plan was
unsustainable, he had little funding, and finding him on the ballot
was like playing "Where's Waldo?"
On Election Day, Daggett got less than 6 percent of the votes, and,
according to exit polls, Christie won independents by 30 percent. He
won in the suburbs, which have become so elusive for most Republicans
this decade, and he won with voters who said the economy, property
taxes, and corruption were their most important issues. A year ago,
many of these same voters supported Barack Obama and his message of
change, but this year, they switched to Christie. Confusing? Not
really. They're called independents for a reason - winning them over
is that easy and that hard.