DEFEAT OBAMACARE IN DETAIL

[Devil's Advocate]

DEFEAT OBAMACARE IN DETAIL

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

Published on DickMorris.com on November 13, 2009

Harry Reid can pass a bill in the Senate that has no public option or
an easy opt-out, shallow subsidies for the uninsured, a low total cost,
weak penalties for not having insurance, no coverage for abortion and
no general tax increase (except for the premium and medical device
taxes).

And Nancy Pelosi can pass a bill in the House (on final passage) that
has a public option with no opt-out, steep subsidies for the uninsured,
harsh penalties if they don't buy insurance, a higher cost, full
abortion coverage and a surcharge income-tax increase.

The question is: Can either one's bill pass the other's chamber?

Probably not.

So here's how all this is likely to unfold:

Pelosi's bill is dead on arrival in the Senate. Reid is going to have
to give up his insistence on the public option and pass a bill in the
Senate very much like the Baucus bill that came out of the Senate
Finance Committee. After extensive negotiations with his liberal wing
on the one side and the moderates in the Senate on the other (led by
Joe Lieberman) he will eventually strike a deal. He'll let the bill
pass with no public option or with a generous opt-out provision.
Meanwhile, he will placate his liberals by telling them that the final
version that the Conference Committee will report back to the Senate
will have a robust public option, not to worry. (Just as Pelosi told
her liberals that the final bill would not ban payments for abortions,
not to worry.)

After weeks of negotiations, the Senate will probably pass its version
of the bill as a Christmas present to America.

But...in the course of all these negotiations, Obama and the Democrats
are going to look worse and worse, more divided and less focused on the
ultimate objective. Public antipathy to the bills will mount and the
worst-case scenario of each possible variation in the legislation will
spark its own storm of opposition. By the time the Senate acts, the
feminists will be angry, the uninsured will be angry, the senior
citizens will be angry and the fiscal conservatives will be angry.

Support for the bill will drop week after week during November and
December.

By the time Congress reconvenes in January to wrestle with the two
competing versions, support for the bill will have dwindled to a
perilous point. This reduced level of support will just serve to make
senators and congressmen more intransigent in the negotiations. Since
the bill will need 60 votes in the Senate after the conference report,
Lieberman, Maine's Snowe and Collins and a handful of other moderates
will each have a veto. And, collectively, the liberals in each chamber
will have one as well.

Weeks and months of wrangling will ensue. The result could be the
defeat of the bill or its amendment in positive ways (for those opposed
to it).

Our task is to reduce public support for the bill by publicizing its
provisions, notably:

1. The $400 billion cut in Medicare

2. The inevitable scarcity that will result from the addition of 35
million new patients with no new doctors or nurses

3. The fine on the uninsured of 2.5 percent of their income if they
don't buy insurance

4. The high cost of these mandatory insurance policies ($15,000 per
family)

5. The low level of subsidy available for the uninsured (only after
they pay 8-12 percent of their incomes)

6. The likelihood of a $1,700 increase in the average family's
premiums

7. The possibility of up to five years in prison for failing to buy
insurance or pay the fine

8. The taxation of medical devices like pacemakers, wheelchairs,
prosthetic limbs, hearing aids, etc.

9. The tax on sick people (increasing the threshold for deducting
medical expenses from 7.5 percent to 10 percent of income

10. The additional fiscal burden on the states of the increase in
Medicaid eligibility

11. The 40 percent tax on health insurance premiums that will affect
households earning more than $75,000 by the fifth year of the plan.

Please circulate this information widely -- to friends, relatives,
associates, etc.

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influence senators.

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