Google Groups no longer supports new Usenet posts or subscriptions. Historical content remains viewable.
Dismiss
A" tough old bird" named Ray Dalio ("old river lake" in Chinese)
0 views
Skip to first unread message
markhor_3
Jan 2, 2022, 2:18:40 AM1/2/22
to
Dalio, founder of American Bridge Water Fund (godfather of American hedge
funds), believes that Beijing has made the right choice. Dalio told Nihon
Keizai Shimbun on January 1 that based on the cycle observed through
history, he found that China improved its government balance sheet,
maintained domestic stability and improved (domestic) education and
productivity, thus making itself a rising power. In contrast, the United
States encounters financial problems, internal conflicts and external
challenges, and faces the risk of further deterioration. It lacks political
cooperation between the two parties and cannot make extensive investment in
education.
In his recently published book "Principles for Responding to the Changing
World Order", Dalio carefully studies historical trends to "diagnose" the
"health" of the countries concerned and determine their possible
trajectories. He said he passed his judgment on to others because he "hopes
that people will look at what is happening at present in the [historical]
context" and learn from history.
The following is a summary of the interview.
Q: In the whole history, where will you put the current America?
A: The United States is in the late stage of what I call the "fifth stage"
of the cycle, in which the United States is suffering from financial
problems, extremely chaotic internal conflicts and external challenges. The
United States has not yet entered the "sixth stage"-civil war, but the
United States is in danger financially, politically and socially.
Q: Where is China in this historical framework?
A: China's income exceeds expenditure, they have a domestic order, and they
are improving rapidly in all aspects-education is improving rapidly,
productivity is improving rapidly, trade is improving rapidly. They don't
have many internal conflicts … China is not facing the risks of civil war
and questioning democracy like the United States.
Q: If China is a rising "empire" and the United States is a declining
empire, what are the determinants?
A: I have studied all dynasties since the Tang Dynasty. They provide more
examples of how the rise and fall of a dynasty is no different from the rise
and fall of an empire. China and Chinese people are very good at learning
from history. Now China is in a powerful stage.
----------------------------------------------------------
Ray Dalio's new book discusses the life cycle of empire development in
detail, and points out that, like human life, empire development has eight
clear stages to follow:
New World Order-
Healthy Economic Growth-
Debt Bubble and Income Gap-
Debt Default and Economic Recession-
Money and Credit Expansion-
War and Reform-
Debt and political reconstruction
New World Order.
At present, the United States is in a recession after peaking, while China
is on the rise.
In an article published on the 21st, Dario discussed the rise and fall of
empires in the past 500 years, including China and the United States. The
article concludes: Empire, like human beings, has a typical life cycle,
which finally comes to an end. At present, the United States is heading for
the last chapter, and China is on the rise.
The life cycle of human beings is easy to judge, just as before the age of
24, most people went to school under the care of their parents, and between
55 and 65, most people had retired from caring for their children and hard
work and began to approach the end of their lives, so is the life cycle of
empires. The following figure shows Dario's summary of the eight stages of
the imperial life cycle.
Figure 1
Http://i5.hexun.com/2020-05-23/201409521.jpg
As the figure shows, after the creation of the new world order at first, it
was followed by a period of peace and prosperity. As people got used to the
boom times, they became more convinced that the boom would continue, and
then borrowed more money to enjoy themselves, which eventually led to
bubbles. The gap between rich and poor widened with the economic prosperity,
and finally, the debt bubble burst. The printing of money and credit and the
increase of internal conflicts have led to a peaceful or violent revolution
in wealth redistribution. Often by the end of the cycle, the empires that
won the last economic and geopolitical wars are less powerful than the
adversaries that flourished during this boom. Under poor economic conditions
and differences between the great powers, there is usually some form of war
between the two sides. The collapse of these debts, economy and world order
will lead to a new group of winners and losers. Then, the winners get
together and create a new domestic and world order.
Figure 2
Http://i7.hexun.com/2020-05-23/201409522. jpg
Dario said that this is what happened repeatedly in history. Figure 2 shows
the life cycle processes of China and the United States concisely and
clearly. As the figure shows, the United States and China are currently at
different stages of their life cycles. Compared with the rising China, the
imperial life cycle of the United States obviously started earlier, and has
been relatively declining at present.
A simple understanding of the life cycle that the United States has gone
through may help to judge the future path of China:
After World War II, as the main victors, the United States, Britain and
Russia gathered together to establish a new world order. The world is
divided into capitalist/democratic countries controlled by the United
States, communist and autocratic countries controlled by Russia, and each
country has its own monetary system. The United States assumes a major world
leadership role because it bears most of the economic, geopolitical and
military responsibilities. New York prospered as a global financial center.
The period 1950-70 saw the growth of productive debt and the development of
the stock market, which were essential for the early financing of innovation
and development. After that, the United States spent 75 years of peace and
prosperity so far. While the economy is growing, the United States is also
the country with the fastest increase in income inequality among developed
countries in the past 30 years. At the same time, in order to provide funds
for domestic demand and war, the United States has accumulated too much
debt.
Relative recessions followed, with the 2000 recession caused by the Internet
bubble, the 2007 real estate bubble caused by the expansion of money and
credit, and the 2009-19 investment bubble, all of which plunged the economy
into a trough.
Each link in the cycle gradually raised debt and non-debt obligations (such
as pensions and health care), and caused the reserve currency central banks
of post-war allies to push interest rates to unprecedented low levels, while
the United States printed more money than ever before. The widening wealth,
values and political disparities within usa have increased internal
conflicts during the economic recession. This is where America is now.
For the rising China, no matter what the future road will take, it is bound
to be watched by the whole world.
funds), believes that Beijing has made the right choice. Dalio told Nihon
Keizai Shimbun on January 1 that based on the cycle observed through
history, he found that China improved its government balance sheet,
maintained domestic stability and improved (domestic) education and
productivity, thus making itself a rising power. In contrast, the United
States encounters financial problems, internal conflicts and external
challenges, and faces the risk of further deterioration. It lacks political
cooperation between the two parties and cannot make extensive investment in
education.
In his recently published book "Principles for Responding to the Changing
World Order", Dalio carefully studies historical trends to "diagnose" the
"health" of the countries concerned and determine their possible
trajectories. He said he passed his judgment on to others because he "hopes
that people will look at what is happening at present in the [historical]
context" and learn from history.
The following is a summary of the interview.
Q: In the whole history, where will you put the current America?
A: The United States is in the late stage of what I call the "fifth stage"
of the cycle, in which the United States is suffering from financial
problems, extremely chaotic internal conflicts and external challenges. The
United States has not yet entered the "sixth stage"-civil war, but the
United States is in danger financially, politically and socially.
Q: Where is China in this historical framework?
A: China's income exceeds expenditure, they have a domestic order, and they
are improving rapidly in all aspects-education is improving rapidly,
productivity is improving rapidly, trade is improving rapidly. They don't
have many internal conflicts … China is not facing the risks of civil war
and questioning democracy like the United States.
Q: If China is a rising "empire" and the United States is a declining
empire, what are the determinants?
A: I have studied all dynasties since the Tang Dynasty. They provide more
examples of how the rise and fall of a dynasty is no different from the rise
and fall of an empire. China and Chinese people are very good at learning
from history. Now China is in a powerful stage.
----------------------------------------------------------
Ray Dalio's new book discusses the life cycle of empire development in
detail, and points out that, like human life, empire development has eight
clear stages to follow:
New World Order-
Healthy Economic Growth-
Debt Bubble and Income Gap-
Debt Default and Economic Recession-
Money and Credit Expansion-
War and Reform-
Debt and political reconstruction
New World Order.
At present, the United States is in a recession after peaking, while China
is on the rise.
In an article published on the 21st, Dario discussed the rise and fall of
empires in the past 500 years, including China and the United States. The
article concludes: Empire, like human beings, has a typical life cycle,
which finally comes to an end. At present, the United States is heading for
the last chapter, and China is on the rise.
The life cycle of human beings is easy to judge, just as before the age of
24, most people went to school under the care of their parents, and between
55 and 65, most people had retired from caring for their children and hard
work and began to approach the end of their lives, so is the life cycle of
empires. The following figure shows Dario's summary of the eight stages of
the imperial life cycle.
Figure 1
Http://i5.hexun.com/2020-05-23/201409521.jpg
As the figure shows, after the creation of the new world order at first, it
was followed by a period of peace and prosperity. As people got used to the
boom times, they became more convinced that the boom would continue, and
then borrowed more money to enjoy themselves, which eventually led to
bubbles. The gap between rich and poor widened with the economic prosperity,
and finally, the debt bubble burst. The printing of money and credit and the
increase of internal conflicts have led to a peaceful or violent revolution
in wealth redistribution. Often by the end of the cycle, the empires that
won the last economic and geopolitical wars are less powerful than the
adversaries that flourished during this boom. Under poor economic conditions
and differences between the great powers, there is usually some form of war
between the two sides. The collapse of these debts, economy and world order
will lead to a new group of winners and losers. Then, the winners get
together and create a new domestic and world order.
Figure 2
Http://i7.hexun.com/2020-05-23/201409522. jpg
Dario said that this is what happened repeatedly in history. Figure 2 shows
the life cycle processes of China and the United States concisely and
clearly. As the figure shows, the United States and China are currently at
different stages of their life cycles. Compared with the rising China, the
imperial life cycle of the United States obviously started earlier, and has
been relatively declining at present.
A simple understanding of the life cycle that the United States has gone
through may help to judge the future path of China:
After World War II, as the main victors, the United States, Britain and
Russia gathered together to establish a new world order. The world is
divided into capitalist/democratic countries controlled by the United
States, communist and autocratic countries controlled by Russia, and each
country has its own monetary system. The United States assumes a major world
leadership role because it bears most of the economic, geopolitical and
military responsibilities. New York prospered as a global financial center.
The period 1950-70 saw the growth of productive debt and the development of
the stock market, which were essential for the early financing of innovation
and development. After that, the United States spent 75 years of peace and
prosperity so far. While the economy is growing, the United States is also
the country with the fastest increase in income inequality among developed
countries in the past 30 years. At the same time, in order to provide funds
for domestic demand and war, the United States has accumulated too much
debt.
Relative recessions followed, with the 2000 recession caused by the Internet
bubble, the 2007 real estate bubble caused by the expansion of money and
credit, and the 2009-19 investment bubble, all of which plunged the economy
into a trough.
Each link in the cycle gradually raised debt and non-debt obligations (such
as pensions and health care), and caused the reserve currency central banks
of post-war allies to push interest rates to unprecedented low levels, while
the United States printed more money than ever before. The widening wealth,
values and political disparities within usa have increased internal
conflicts during the economic recession. This is where America is now.
For the rising China, no matter what the future road will take, it is bound
to be watched by the whole world.
one
Jan 2, 2022, 8:52:55 AM1/2/22
to
markhor_3 wrote:
>Dalio ... believes that Beijing has made the right choice.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/ray-dalio-interview-china-inflation-us-civil-war-51639180030
https://terebess.hu/english/tao/gia.html#Kap16
To cycle, recycle and return can be a theme of the Tao Te Ching.
http://www.mobilewords.pro/Tao/redpine.htm#38
<< augury is the flower of the Way and beginning of delusion >>
Fortune telling may be telling
and miss various points along the Way.
- fwiw, imo ... Cheers!
>Dalio ... believes that Beijing has made the right choice.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/ray-dalio-interview-china-inflation-us-civil-war-51639180030
https://terebess.hu/english/tao/gia.html#Kap16
To cycle, recycle and return can be a theme of the Tao Te Ching.
http://www.mobilewords.pro/Tao/redpine.htm#38
<< augury is the flower of the Way and beginning of delusion >>
Fortune telling may be telling
and miss various points along the Way.
- fwiw, imo ... Cheers!
aye
Jan 2, 2022, 9:19:34 AM1/2/22
to
one wrote:
>markhor_3 wrote:
>
>>Dalio ... believes that Beijing has made the right choice.
>
>https://www.barrons.com/articles/ray-dalio-interview-china-inflation-us-civil-war-51639180030
Cities, such as Beijing, London, Moscow, Washington and others
>markhor_3 wrote:
>
>>Dalio ... believes that Beijing has made the right choice.
>
>https://www.barrons.com/articles/ray-dalio-interview-china-inflation-us-civil-war-51639180030
could be said to make choices and bring things in to and out of
being and/or Being, Existence, from Nonbeing, Nonexistence.
What a saying, a statement or an assertion means
when some city is, or cities are, said to make choices
might suggest people who govern have decided to do
or not to do using various methods.
>https://terebess.hu/english/tao/gia.html#Kap16
>
>To cycle, recycle and return can be a theme of the Tao Te Ching.
For people to grow as families, tribes, ethnicities and such knots.
Nation states of mind, group-think, empires and such knot.
Knots in the heart-mind may vary.
To untie a tangle, a knot, to use a Tao
or a technique could vary as they are similar
to when Sea Turtle met Well Frog or the Lord of
the River met Jo of the North Ocean, given: tales t'old.
- in a bamboo grove ... Thanks! Cheers!
0 new messages