merry xmas &ct to ufo folks

[MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com]

Just a short note today. Short for me, anyway.

It's Xmas day here in rural Victoria with temps a balmy 35C after a
week or 2 of Antarctic hurricanes and drenching rain.

I note the NUFORC folks have managed to pull an all-nighter or 2 and
uploaded the sighting data up until around Dec 22.

While numbers will continue coming in, hopefully forever :), that puts
2022 well down in the list of UFO activity that according to my
programs now looks like:

Year Number of UFO reports
(NUFORC as at 22 Dec 2022).
2014 8552
2012 8022
2013 7711
2020 7019
2015 6790
2016 5588
2019 5555
2011 5555
2008 5221
2017 4977
2009 4890
2010 4715
2007 4661
2022 4655 <-- =16th with 2007
2006 3393
2018 3206
2021 2790

Hard to believe the "active years" see twice as many reports. It's
been a busy year for me, at least watching little lights and sometimes
what appear to be "non military" patrolling aircraft match wits in my
part of the sky. Usually it's all very low key with aircraft in this
part of the sky watching a little light moving in *that* part of the
sky, neither side formally acknowledging the other is there.

But a couple days back for the first time I've seen a big yellow orb
seemed to bluff out a large prop aircraft that has seemingly been
headed toward the orb at reasonable closing speed. It seems the 2 were
at a similar alt -- about 400m judging by the apparent size of the
aircraft -- and at an angular sep of only 5 deg or so the aircraft did
a 180 out of the area.

The action didn't let up for Xmas Eve. With more than a dozen lights
seen last night and early morning. As usual 1/2 the lights might have
been satellites. But the other half were either racing faster than
even a LEO sat should go (i.e. take about 10 sec to cross a
finger-width) or were curving so they appeared to orbit the S Pole
(e.g. come in from SE curve and go out SW) or were plain going the
wrong way (i.e. orbiting from E to W). There are also quibbles over
the brightness of some of the objects. I'm not sure it's normal for an
obj to appear as bright or brighter than Sirius from one horiz to
another. I suspect not. :)

I'm hoping to catch a few more lights tonight with a couple friends
coming over. Hopefully, one of them will bring binocs. I haven't told
them we'll be out back looking at the sky 1/2 the night. ;)
Sun is apparently a great day for looking at the sky.

Looking at the NUFORC data since 2006 (when AFAIK reporting standards
changed a bit and became harder to compare with the pre-2006 data) we
can cook up a list of which days of the week are apparently more
active than other days.

We can look at e.g. the MADAR data. The MADAR network is a group of
about 100 "robot" stations that report magnetic anomalies across the
US. Previous tests show they have a pretty good correlation with all
types of actual UFO sightings. And, being robots, they give a 2nd set
of eyes (cough) on the data.

So breaking down the MADAR sightings by DOW we find:

DOW Number MADAR sightings
(Sun==1)
1 218
7 186
6 169
5 168
3 162
2 159
4 151

I.e. according to the MADAR Sun may be the best day to spot a UFO
given that's when the compass needles across the US tend to twitch
most. Definitely it seems Fri, Sat and Sun are good times to look.
And it can't be just because people tend to go to Fri parties and
watch the sky more then. MADAR doesn't AFAIK drink.

A 2nd way of looking at the days of weeks it to break sightings down
by e.g. object shape, rank days of week by count for each shape, then
calculate an "average rank" for each day of week. This should be much
more accurate that simply looking at counts for one object type (as
above) or even ranks for DOW for all sightings.

If we do the clever thing we get:

DOW Average Rank across all UFO shapes
7 1.25
6 2.875
1 3.08333
5 4.54167
4 4.95833
3 5.33333
2 5.95833

So, again, Fri, Sat, Sun are in the top 3 ranks and should be the best
for view of "any" UFO type.

We can say the 2 different methods pretty much agree which days are
best and which days are (cough) less best.

So the small gathering tonight should have some prospect of seeing
something, presuming the weather holds and we don't drink too much
beforehand.

And not to forget the New Year. It seems after earth passes its
perihelion in early Jan, the early months of the year tend to see more
activity than the later months. At least the MADAR sightings look like:

Month MADAR sightings
(Jan==1)
5 166 xxx best months
4 157 xxx
1 153 xxx (Perihelion day 2023 is 4 Jan).
2 130 xxx
3 130 xxx
6 101
9 99
8 95
7 67
10 64
11 44
12 7

As for the rest of you, season's greetings and happy holidays and
whatever other catchphrases are appropriate. Thanks for all the hard
grind from the folks at MUFON, Black Vault, NUFORC, and various TV
shows I've sampled through the year. Keep up the good work. And a
little sommin sommin similar for the readers of these groups both now
and into the future. I know these things can tend to stick around for
decades.

Maybe from where you are now the Pentagon has finally come clean about
what they have suspected and/or known for decades if not longer.
Lucky you! But OTOH lucky us who get to try and figure it all out.

--
Section 8. Unidentified Flying Object (UFO) Reports
Persons wanting to report UFO/unexplained phenomena activity
should contact a ... data collection center, such as the National UFO
Reporting Center, etc.
-- www.faa.gov, as at 30 Nov 2022

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