what causes ufo waves?

[MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com]

I was reading through Marcus Lowth generally entertaining archives
the other day when I got to
<https://www.ufoinsight.com/ufos/waves/other-ufo-waves>
A Quick Round-Up
We will ask what the reasons might be for such UFO waves - whether
the worldwide ones we have examined in previous case study articles
or the lesser-known ones we will look at here - at the end of this
case study. But perhaps we should just go over a few notes and points.

Well. This is exactly the kind of question my s/w can answer pretty quickly.

Marcus lists the years for the main waves of global UFO sightings and
we can just feed that in and let the program find which datasets out
of the 10s of 1000s it has on file to see which ones "look like" the
years in question. The s/w has a little bit of AI built into it that
has it discard things it can't "prove" are causally connected and it
has a few other tricks to try to eliminate false positives and avoid a
sh*tload of cpu time doing all the processing the search would
normally require.

The raw output usually consists of a list of variables/datasets that
statistically and "logically" explain the required dataset.

In this case the input data is a list of years:

1952
1954
1964
1966
1967
1973

which the s/w's learning side knows how handle to get it ready to line
up against things like satellite datasets of cloud heights for various
regions, ocean temperatures at various depths, and all sorts of other
odds and ends it's picked up from the web over the past 20-30 years.

After some grinding noises from the cpus it spits out a list. The top
10 items are as follows:

Dataseries Lag(years) "Explanation power"(R2)
sduranus-v 1 0.99999994
sdsaturn-v 0 0.99994748
sdsaturn-lonecl 0 0.99804264
stormseg0 0 0.94404658
maxjupiter-elong 1 0.91191593
minmars-Dec 1 0.88655485
stormseg-20 0 0.87000148
ufo-KY 0 0.86968259
stormseg-170 10 0.78993902
cosmic 10 0.78734147

It normally doesn't provide an explanation of WHY the given data are
highly predictive of the target (the list of years in this case) but a
small amount of detective work turns up some interesting things for
the first couple of items.

We see "sduranus-v" delayed by 1 year is supposedly the explanation of
99.99% of the list of years. I.e. it can be tricked up to make a
function that is close to "1" for the "wave" years and close to 0 otherwise.

By this stage I know most of the computer-assigned codes by heart.
The "sd" means this is a derived data series from "uranus-v" which is
the day-to-day angle of Uranus in its orbit around the sun. These data
come from an ephemeris program I tinkered up some years back. The "v"
numbers for the planets are the angle in degrees a planet is from its
minimum distance from the sun.

The "sd" means the s/w has taken the "standard deviation" of this
value over the course of a year. For some reason how much the angle
changes from its average value over a year very closely determines
whether the year is a UFO wave or not. At least for the years in the
target set.

It turns out the "v" angle is changing fastest when Uranus is near
perihelion -- closest to the sun. Since the angle v clicks over from
360 to 0 every 84 years the sd value has a big bump on those years.
Normally Uranus moves only 1-2 deg per year but in nr-perihelion years
the SD of the v angle can jump up to 100 or more.

So it turns out THESE years (delayed by 1) tend to be peak years for
UFO sightings.

Of course this means only 1965 is explained by the position of Uranus.
But the s/w is convinced it is far from a coincidence Uranus was
closest to the sun (on average) over 1964.

And the same is roughly true for Saturn as well. That explains 1973.
But Saturn orbits every 29.5 years so the s/w is expecting 2003 should
have been a wave year as well. And 1943. Well the latter rings a bell
even if it isn't in Lowth's list.

And the pair of planets Uranus and Saturn convinces the s/w even more
this can't be a coincidence because it's seen the same linkage in so
many other things its associated with UFO activity up till now.

Down in 3rd or 4th place, depending how you count it (whether the
ecliptic longitude is regarded as "much the same thing" as v or not),
the ocean storm days along longitude band 0-10E explains 94% of waves
as well

Further down the table we see the average worldwide cosmic ray count
also predicts whether a year is a wave year or not. Turns out those
years with a greater cosmic ray average as less likely to be wave
years. We've seen this before. UFO's don't seem to like cosmic rays.

So the upshot seems to be -- wave years are predicted by the closest
approach to the sun of a couple planets, how stormy the Atlantic is
that year, and how little cosmic radiation is hitting the Earth.

So it doesn't sound like there's a huge input to waves from the
Russians, the Chinese, US high-tech companies or old Nazis hanging out
in the Antarctic.

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