an improved model of interplanetary ufo movement

[MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- We look at yet another model of UFO interplanetary flight, this time
using detailed day by day planetary positions from an ephemeris s/w.
- All flights are assumed to start on a single planet -- either Jup,
Sat, Ura, Nep, or Plu -- and all travel to Earth is in a straight
line at constant speed. We don't bother to handle any intersection
of the flight and another planet or the Sun.
- Assuming flights start equally on any day of the epoch we gather the
distribution of end dates and compare that against UFO sightings
over time.
- It turns out the "most likely" parameters have UFO's mostly starting
from Neptune and transit speeds being a constant .25 AU/d -- approx
450 km/sec.
- A previous exercise -- using lagged regressions with some ambiguity
related to when a transit might start in relation to the minimum
distance between the origin and Earth -- estimated a speed around
850 km/sec.
- Whatever. It doesn't seem that observations of UFO's are consistent
with them being interstellar visitors unless they're tooling around
the solar system in their dad's old bug.


We have looked in a prev post at a simple model that attempted to
estimate characteristics of UFO interplanetary flight (if any :).

By matching planetary positions with a lag against UFO sightings we
saw it seemed possible to guesstimate the origin of at least some
chunk of objects as well as the transit time between there and here
(i.e. approx 2x the lag).

In this current study we will wind up the elastic bands one more turn.
But using an ephemeris s/w that can estimate planetary positions day
by day over the past 100 y we can determine which transit
characteristics best match the observed UFO activity and how well
that match might be.

We shall leave open whether the objects in question and piloted,
remote-controlled, autonomous, that some may be non-intelligent
lifeforms of some kind, garbage blowing around our neighbourhood, or
other possibilities.

We just want an idea of where a good chunk of them most likely
originate and how quick they seem to make the trip from there to here.

So we had to write a little program that generates all the
possibilities and then matches them up against UFO observations and
determines which set of parameters most closely matches what is
actually seen.

At this stage our navigation model will be as simple as possible.
While we might suspect and at some future time test various overall
characteristics of different kinds of potential "drives" --
e.g. manipulation of gravitation, E2 motors using zero-point energy,
reacting against planetary and solar magnetic fields with rotating
super-magnets, space warping (one of the favorites some places I hear
:), or whatever -- we'll keep it simple. All transits will be assumed
to be straight lines at constant speed.

We'll try a limited number of "bins" for the interplanetary speed
"all" UFO's are presumed to be transiting at from .25 AU/d through 5
AU/day.

And we'll presume the UFO's *could* start from their point of origin
at any time but if they can't finish the transit in a reasonable time
because their origin and Earth separate too far during the trip then
they never reach Earth.

All objects that finish the transit are assumed to be amenable at
least in principle to observation. But we shall estimate some
parameters to fit the observations as well as possible and therefore
allow for some objects being missed. Who knows? Maybe some of them are
cloaked or sommin. :)

We we run the little program and produce an R2 ("explanation power")
of how close the supposed distribution of arrival days matches the
observed UFO's of all types (as per the NUFORC database -- my fave at
present) we get the following table:

Origin Speed R2
nep .25 0.83590922
nep .5 0.80851578
nep .75 0.77732549
sat 2 0.74966230
sat 2.5 0.73125946
plu .25 0.61194268
plu .5 0.59764643
sat .25 0.58667688
sat 3 0.54431452
sat 1.5 0.44392068
nep 1 0.42600787
ura .25 0.40653193
ura .75 0.38090584
ura .5 0.35551253
nep 4 0.23051973
nep 3.5 0.22511261
ura 1.5 0.18121918
plu 3 0.17378126
plu .75 0.17217214
plu 3.5 0.12992141
plu 1 0.12672803
sat .5 0.11921899
[Others with R2<.1].

It seems no combination sees an origin of Jupiter (or environs) match
at better than an R2 of 10%.

OTOH Saturn that is well-known to match the rise and fall of UFO
sightings fairly well, with an avg speed of 2 AU/d matches around 75%
of UFO sightings. Which seems incredibly high given we suspect 90% of
UFO sightings are mundane stuff like Starlink and weather balloons.

Pluto with a speed of .25 AU/d also matches fairly well at R2=61%.

But the best match and mostly likely set of parameters given this
simple model is Neptune with a UFO interplanetary speed of .25 AU/d.

While it's unlikely (given other data) all or even 83% of UFO's come
from Neptune, it is surprising that an interplanetary speed of "only"
.25 AU/d -- 432 km/sec -- is the "best" model (of those tried).

We recall the previous simple method just relying on lagged
regressions estimated travel speed was roughly 850 km/sec.

--
Upcoming events:
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Australia's Department of Defence says it has no protocols to record
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[For some reason the UK and AUS are not taking UFO's seriously and, if
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programs are and it has something to do with market capitalization and
our old pals the oil biz. If there confirmed high-tech gizmos whizzing
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[The Big Report: "A tictac ate my homework"!]
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[R Kym Horsell]

MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com wrote:
> EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
>
> - We look at yet another model of UFO interplanetary flight, this time
> using detailed day by day planetary positions from an ephemeris s/w.
> - All flights are assumed to start on a single planet -- either Jup,
> Sat, Ura, Nep, or Plu -- and all travel to Earth is in a straight
> line at constant speed. We don't bother to handle any intersection
> of the flight and another planet or the Sun.
> - Assuming flights start equally on any day of the epoch we gather the
> distribution of end dates and compare that against UFO sightings
> over time.
> - It turns out the "most likely" parameters have UFO's mostly starting
> from Neptune and transit speeds being a constant .25 AU/d -- approx
> 450 km/sec.
> - A previous exercise -- using lagged regressions with some ambiguity
> related to when a transit might start in relation to the minimum
> distance between the origin and Earth -- estimated a speed around
> 850 km/sec.

...

I just read an article about the proposed "plasma magnet"
aka "Wind Rider" interplanetary drive first proposed 2005.
A group is trying to get some money together to create a demo of
the system to fly to Jupiter.

I'd heard of various "solar sail" concepts over the years but hadnt
realized this system was a bit different from my naive concept of
an actual sail that captures the solar wind (as opposed to sunlight).

Under the plasma magnet idea a large magnet creates a ball
of somewhat self-sustaining plasma around a spaccraft using more
or less available technologu that could extend out to kilometers.
The plasma ball acts like the fluff on some wind-blown seeds
and just gets blown outward from the sun by the stream of charged
particles. Acceleration is of course small, but accumulates quickly.

As present there is no way to slow down and it's proposed the
Jupiter mission could use nuclear-powered rockets to brake.

The reason I'm putting this here is the calculated speed of the
Wind Rider is very similar to the calculations I made from
the UFO sighting data versus planetary positions over the last 150y.

While the rise and fall of some fraction of UFO sightings is
consistent with constant-velocity journeys from e.g. Neptune
at a const ~450 km/sec, the speeds for the Wave Rider are theoretically:

Earth-Jupiter 3-4 wks
Earth-Saturn 6 wks
Earth-Neptune 18 wks

It's also just possible to launch an interstellar probe with the idea
provided the accelaration happens in the inner solar system.
It's expected a probe could leave the solar system around 300 km/sec --
5x+ faster than the Voyagers.

But the top speed for planetary trips is claimed to be 450-600 km/sec,
smack in the middle of the ranges I've previously calculated for
the UFO models.

Of course the Wave Rider can not fly INTO the solar system. As I
mentioned above, it can't even brake (by itself) when it reaches
a target inside the solar system.

But it might give some clue as to what kind of techn could be
responsible for brigking some kind of spacecraft from (say)
the outer planets to the inner system at a rate of ~500 km/sec.


--
This New Deep Space Propulsion System Rides Like A Leaf on the Solar Wind
The Debrief, 20 Oct 2021
Wind Rider, also called a Plasma Magnet, is a solar wind catching sail
that can reach the outer solar system quickly without chemical fuel.
[Jupiter 3-4 wks; Saturn 6 wks; Neptune 18 wks. Interstellar probes
could leave the solar system at 300 km/sec].

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasma_magnet