sky worms maybe link to saturn

[MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Some NASA videos show unusual glowing and gyrating objects --
dubbed "space worms" -- apparently seen in LEO.
- We look for similar descriptions in UFO databases and find about a
dozen reports that could be a similar thing, but inside the atm. We
of course cant be sure they are the same thing as depicted in the
videos.
- An AI s/w compares the appearances of the rare "sky worms" with
1000s of public data series and concludes the distance of Saturn
from the Earth (or the sun) "looks closest" to the pattern of worm
sightings. If Saturn is nearer the sun and/or nearer Earth the
sightings of "sky worms" are significantly more common.
- Warming of the Antarctic has another stat sig effect on worm
sightings. The warmer the ocean nr Pine Island seems the lower the
chance of someone reporting a sky worm.


Generally the program "NASA Unexplained Files" breaks down into 3
categories. Nothingburger. Total hype. Heard It. But like UFO reports
about 10% of the segments in the program are interesting and something
I hadn't heard. So color me awake after an ep shown here in AUS
recently featured (2) sightings of "space worms".

At first the clips seemed to be mundane. A brightly glowing object was
showing gyrating in freefall. No idea of scale but the voiceover
implied it was in the 1m range. At first sight they looked like a
glowing segment of hoop off a barrel. Rotations on more than one axis
deceptively made it look like what otherwise seemed to be a solid
piece of metal was wiggling.

But then you have to ask. Why the heck is it rotating so randomly? In
freefall it can spin around an axis or 2 but you'd imagine it should
be at a constant rate and there should be no sudden changes of
principal axis. Maybe it was getting "blown" by thruster exhaust or
something. But why was it not being pushed? How could a thruster make
it chance axis of rotation (only)? The objects in question didn't
seem to understand basic physics. And after a couple mins maybe it
seemed each object -- I think one was seen from the ISS and one was
seen from a shuttle -- was really squirming and twisting.

Anyway. Odd. So I had to look at objects in the NUFORC database that
seemed to be a simpler kind of thing, but seen in the atm. And there
were some.

We've looked at "sky snakes" in a previous post. Some of those were
quite large. More like "sky dragons". But the search this time has to
include a term like "worm" and words like "bright" and
"squirming". The search found about a dozen reports that matched.


Year Number of "bright wiggling worms" (NUFORC)
1951 1
1984 1
2006 1
2007 1
2009 1
2010 1
2012 1
2015 1
2019 1
2020 1

As we might have expected with the conjunction of keywords in the
match there are only a few cases. Maybe too few to analyze? The s/w
says nope, it's enough. By judicious transformations and adjustments
it found a lot of statistically robust hits.

The first thing the programs did was transform from an "amplitude" to
"time" domain -- the time between events. It can then interpolate to
get missing values over the period 1950-2020. And as an extra buffer
against spurious correlations it de-trended the result to make sure
something that simply had a trend matching the maybe-decreasing
interval between worm sightings would show up as significant.

After some think time the list of data series in its database that
seemed to "look like" the interval between worm sightings was:


Data series Lag(y) R2
minsaturn-rg 3 0.60017680
maxsaturn-r 3 0.58663540
saturn-RA 6 0.40759873
ant-110 5 0.33723232
storms-60 6 0.32789591
minpluto-elong 4 0.27958512
arc-20 2 0.21851052
ufo-Fireball 3 0.17982348
n2o_smo 6 0.15996883
co2 6 0.13157377
maxaravgNTemp 6 0.12885376
stormseg-90 2 0.12703668
ch4 2 0.12043987
ufo-Flash 3 0.10755787
minuah_lsSoPolLand 3 0.09677787
ufo-OR 1 0.09244783
maxgreenland 2 0.08791635
minaravgEquat 1 0.06784570
maxxflare 2 0.06393038
sdaravgNHocean 4 0.04810107
nh 2 0.04202290

So the "best explanation" it found was the annual minimum distance
between Saturn and Earth ("the geocentric range", rg) delayed by 3
years. The model shows that for each AU Saturn is closer to Earth
during a year the next "sky worm" is seen around 4 years sooner than
average between sightings (about every 7 years).

The 2nd item in the table, above, says the next most important
explanatory factor is the distance between Saturn and the sun. That
model also shows for each AU closer Saturn's max distance from the sun
over a year the next sighting of a "worm" is around 4 years sooner
than average.

The magnitude of the correlation and the lag for both of the best
cases is the same. There's nothing like getting the same result with 2
different sets of data -- even if they both belong to the same planet. :)

The 3rd place in the table is also about Saturn -- it's apparent
position in the sky this time.

In 4th place is the sea surface temperature at approx the longitude of
Pine Island in Antarctica. That model suggests for each deg C warmer
the ocean surface in that region is the time to the next sighting of a
worm is increased by 16 years -- the equivalent of Saturn moving 4 AU
further away.

Finally, it seems Fireball UFO's have some effect on worm sightings.
For each Fireball seen (in the NUFORC database) the interval to the
next worm sighting is increased slightly. Either "worms" and
Fireball's are "the same thing" and either identified as one or the
other, or maybe Fireballs scare away "sky worms".

Other factors down the list have a quickly diminishing influence on
the sightings.

The correlations suggest these objects may be drifting from or via
Saturn and possibly take several years to make the journey. Falling
into the Earth's atmosphere at the end of the trip might seem
natural. But how they might be (if they are indeed the seem kind of
thing) the glowing objects seen in the NASA videos -- apparently in
Earth orbit -- is another puzzle.

--
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