Tip for newbie death poolers
Laurie D. T. Mann
> As many know, every month I post a list of famous people who are alive and
> 80 or older. My list posted on 1 December 1998 contained 115 people. As
> of 1 December 1999, exactly one year later, 108 of those people were still
> alive. In other words, the survival rate of the folks on that list was 94
> percent (rounded to the nearest whole number, of course). This indicates
> that a death pool strategy of selecting people simply because they are 80
> or over will probably be unsuccessful. Experienced players already know
> this, but newbies might appreciate the help.
I'll vouch for that!
I submitted three lists to stiffs.com for this year:
www.dpsinfo.com 1 (Best Guess)
www.dpsinfo.com 2 (Old-Timers)
www.dpsinfo.com 3 (ARRRGGHH!) (AKA "The Hate List")
Everyone on the Old-Timers List was at least 90. As of
today, only two of them died.
The "Best Guess" list fared better - I guessed four correctly.
But I would have gotten five if my memory was a little better.
Another tip is to take keep a running list of people you hear
about who are reported as being ill (yes, I know that's really
even more morbid than my site). When I submitted my '99 dead
pool lists, I'd forgotten about Iris Murdoch, who was reported
in late '98 as being in the very late stages of Alzheimer's.
She died in early '99.
Finally, a "hate" list is a waste of a submission to a dead pool,
even if it's cathartic. I may have only gotten ONE right on the
"ARRRGGHH" list, and even that one right isn't at all clear
(some folks in the FBI believe that Eric Robert Rudolph died
this year).
One other hint - be careful about "piling on." It's one thing
to look at last year's list, see who lots of people chose to die
last year, and pick the ones who are still alive. There's always
random chance involved in death, and just being sick doesn't
necessarily mean you're going to die soon. Some people with
AIDS, cancer, Alzheimer's, and MS live a very long time.
--
Laurie D. T. Mann ** Geek Feminist ** lm...@city-net.com
Dead People Server ** Trivia Maven ** http://dpsinfo.com
Buy Something from Amazon (via dpsinfo.com), and You've Made
a Donation to the American Cancer Society (7/4/99-12/31/99)
Ray urie
Laurie D. T. Mann <lm...@city-net.com> wrote in message
news:385CE9DF...@city-net.com...
>
>
> One other hint - be careful about "piling on." It's one thing
> to look at last year's list, see who lots of people chose to die
> last year, and pick the ones who are still alive. There's always
> random chance involved in death, and just being sick doesn't
> necessarily mean you're going to die soon. Some people with
> AIDS, cancer, Alzheimer's, and MS live a very long time.
I put my hand up to falling for this one when I jumpoed on the bandwagon and
selected Johnny Paycheck last year. To be honest, I had never heard of him
(come to think of it, I still have never heard any of his music)
One other tip is to be cosmopolitan. Big Iain runs the Derby Dead Pool which
is made up predominantly of British players, hence there is a British bias
in the selections.
http://www.big-iain.demon.co.uk/index.htm
There is also an Australian Ghoul pool too.
http://www.omen.net.au/~uncle/adp99.html
Obviously Brits and Ozzies can look at predominantly American pools and get
some assistance, so look around.
Edwin King
>
> One other tip is to be cosmopolitan. Big Iain runs the Derby Dead Pool which
> is made up predominantly of British players, hence there is a British bias
> in the selections.
> http://www.big-iain.demon.co.uk/index.htm
One thing to look out for is how celebrity is measured. Iain chooses
coverage in the British papers, which of course catches even obscure
American entertainers. But if one goes the other way, even fairly
prominent Brits might not come up the the US pools' definitions. AP is
quite parochial - the British press cover all sorts of foreigners that
it doesn't.
Time for Louis to give us the url of his monster list of 'pools, I
think...
Edwin
Louis Epstein
Arbuckle F. Brunswick III
>There's always
>random chance involved in death, and just being sick doesn't
>necessarily mean you're going to die soon. Some people with
>AIDS, cancer, Alzheimer's, and MS live a very long time.
I second that observation ... a number of years back one entrant in our pool
had Jose Napoleon Duarte on their list ... in June he was diagnosed with
terminal pancreatic cancer with six months to live ... in he made it into the
new year and everyone had him on their list. He made it through the next year,
and then everyone dropped him ...THEN he died with only one selector again.
Terminal <whatever> just ain't what it used to be!
E-Brake
> I think actuarial studies have shown that after you reach a certain old
> age, your risk of pending death actually DECREASES as compared to
> younger persons in a certain age range. I know this seems awkward and
> backwards, but it goes something like this: A person 55 years old
> has a probability of surving to 70 of X. A person 70 years old has
> a probability of Y of reaching 90 or 100. The probability of Y is > X.
> In other words, if your body can hold out to 70 there is a good chance
> you'll make it to 90. A person say 55 has a lesser chance of making it
> to 70 than the 70 year old has it to 90.
>
> Now let me qualify this. I cannot cite a specfic study that indicates
> the above. I merely read it somewhere many years ago, and thought it
> quite odd at the time. I use the numbers 70, 90, and 100 as examples,
> but I think the ages in the study are close to these ages. The study
> seems to suggest that around 70 is the "over the hump" age. If your
> body, lifestyle, etc. has been abused it will not last beyond 70. But
> if you can make it to that age (or whatever that age is), you are likely
> doing the right thing, and will be rewarded with a least a couple of
> more decades. I suspect many in this NG are familiar with these studies,
> and hence the warning to newbies.
>
> A pool of 65 year olds would probably yield a higher "success"
> rate than 80 year olds. Your list of 80 year olds seems to suggest
> and support the study result is some part. I don't know if 84 gets
> you where you want. I know it is counter intuitive to actually LOWER
> the age to get "better" reults. Of course at some point if you raise
> the age high enough you will get the expected results (102 year olds!)
>
> Again, I ain't claiming to be an expert on the subject and cannot debate
> the merits of the study. But, however people in the insurance industry
> are pretty damn good in their research and crunching the numbers. Their
> estimates on highway deaths for example are uncannily accurate,
> afterall, these type events occur routinely with a very broad population base, so
> they should know. An insurance company actuary can be of assistance if you
> know one, and you are willing to pursue it that far. I'm not.
>
> I would be happy to hear from someone more familiar with the studies
> that I am. Their intepretation may be different from mine.
Wow Del, interesting post; made my brain hurt. Death pool food for thought.
Personally, I pick my lists less analytically (cause I hate math) by either of
the following manners:
1) The National Enquirer or Star Magazine proclaims them ill/dying or their
spouse is ill/dying (older mates tend to die within 1 year of eachother, I
hear). Then, wait no more than 5 years (a la the Frank Sinatra debacle), and
eventually, you're set.
2) If a celeb passes my "No Way! They're STILL alive?" test, they make it on,
e.g. "Ingmar Bergman? No Way!"; "Mitch Miller? Nuh Uh!". "Billy Wilder? Well,
pogue mahone!".
-E.
--
http://home.earthlink.net/~ebrake
http://www.geocities.com/wishman_2000/
Del Stanley
>
> As many know, every month I post a list of famous people who are alive and
> 80 or older. My list posted on 1 December 1998 contained 115 people. As
> of 1 December 1999, exactly one year later, 108 of those people were still
> alive. In other words, the survival rate of the folks on that list was 94
> percent (rounded to the nearest whole number, of course). This indicates
> that a death pool strategy of selecting people simply because they are 80
> or over will probably be unsuccessful. Experienced players already know
> this, but newbies might appreciate the help.
>
> stats would change if only those who were 84 or older on 1 December 1998
> were counted, but not interested enough to do the work right now.
Louis Epstein
: Del Stanley wrote:
: > I think actuarial studies have shown that after you reach a certain old
It's my understanding that the statistical pattern of higher death rate
for every increasing age bracket does not break down until age 108.
(the pattern of the age brackets having faster growth rates as you
go up is true even higher).Most 85-year-olds make it to 91;
most 100-year-olds do NOT reach 102.
: Wow Del, interesting post; made my brain hurt. Death pool food for thought.
: Personally, I pick my lists less analytically (cause I hate math) by either of
: the following manners:
:
: 1) The National Enquirer or Star Magazine proclaims them ill/dying or their
: spouse is ill/dying (older mates tend to die within 1 year of eachother, I
: hear). Then, wait no more than 5 years (a la the Frank Sinatra debacle), and
: eventually, you're set.
:
: 2) If a celeb passes my "No Way! They're STILL alive?" test, they make it on,
: e.g. "Ingmar Bergman? No Way!"; "Mitch Miller? Nuh Uh!". "Billy Wilder? Well,
: pogue mahone!".
So I guess you regularly pick Leni Riefenstahl?
: -E.
: http://home.earthlink.net/~ebrake
: http://www.geocities.com/wishman_2000/
Del Stanley
> Wow Del, interesting post; made my brain hurt. Death pool food for thought.
> Personally, I pick my lists less analytically (cause I hate math)...
Sorry E-Brake for the wind, but I'm afraid if I just said that
increasing
one's old age may not appreciably affect the pool would require a little
explanation. Bumping up the age SEEMS like it ought to work, but in some
cases perhaps not. I don't do any real analysis; I don't even have a
pool!
I check on the group just to see who is dead. I can't help it, and
make no apologies (:>)
E-Brake
Hi Del,
Ack! I hope I didn't come across as knocking your post, I really liked it. I
help out with "The Ghoul Pool" and every year, truly believe that I have THE
winning list. This year to date, I have 3 hits (out of 30 picks!). 2 had
cancer, 1 was very mature (Victor Mature, to be exact). He was my "Whoa, HE'S
still around?" pick.
I can easily make a list of 200 potentials, most of them ancient but, you're
right, when it comes down to it, age doesn't seem matter. I think it's
lifestyle and/or genetics, myself. Two words: Jeanne Calment. Two more words:
Jim Fixx.
Thanks for the food for thought, I really did appreciate it.
Have a super holiday, and great Gnu Year!
-E.