Barack Obama Makes Basic Error Over Balance Of Power In Kremlin
Clay
The Times
July 6, 2009
President Obama has made his first mistake in Russia even before he
arrives in Moscow today. His attempt to cast Vladimir Putin as
yesterday�s man and to drive a wedge between the Prime Minister and
President Medvedev demonstrates a misreading of relations in the
Kremlin.
Mr Medvedev is in office but not in power and whether he becomes
President in more than name depends on Mr Putin�s support and
intentions. Mr Medvedev may represent a more accommodating face of
Russia but this is only because Mr Putin wants him to.
Mr Obama declared: �I think that it�s important that even as we move
forward with President Medvedev that Putin understand that the old
Cold War approaches to US-Russian relations is outdated . . . Putin
has one foot in the old ways of doing business and one foot in the
new.� That suggests that Mr Medvedev�s outlook differs from that of
his mentor despite a lack of evidence. Mr Putin is not known as a bad
judge of character and he himself described his successor as �no less
a Russian nationalist than I am�.
Mr Putin�s dominance was evident at the start of last year�s war in
Georgia, when he directed operations in South Ossetia. Foreign
relations are also the responsibility of the President. But Mr Putin
has been an active globetrotter and does not hesitate to involve
himself in policy in a way that would have been unthinkable for any of
his prime ministers.
He told Japanese leaders during a recent visit that Tokyo would have
to meet Moscow�s terms for a formal peace treaty ending the Second
World War, adding that Mr Medvedev would raise the issue at next
week�s G8 summit in Italy. Nobody would have dared dictate his
presidential agenda for him. One Western diplomat told The Times that
Mr Putin continued to hold 90 per cent of power. Mr Obama�s decision
to meet him is an admission that he holds sway and everyone from
President Hu Jintao of China to European Union leaders make the same
journey.
Mr Medvedev�s utterances about enforcing the rule of law remain just
that � and are tainted by the blatantly rigged manner of his election.
Mr Obama will ignore that detail in talking up their �very good
relationship�. But if Mr Putin decides to return to the presidency in
2012 � and it is his decision � then Mr Obama will be dealing directly
by the end of his first term with a man he has dismissed.
He may have played into Mr Putin�s hands. Despite the old pals� act
with George W. Bush, the Kremlin became increasingly anti-American
over Nato expansion, missile defence in Eastern Europe, and
Washington�s support for pro-Western leaders in Georgia and Ukraine.
Mr Obama�s pledge to press the reset button in relations was seen by
Moscow as confirmation that Russia was right all along. Russia did not
offer to change its attitudes.
Unless the US is preparing to abandon those policies, Mr Putin will
feel justified in declaring that there is no sign of the new era. This
would be a gift for the Kremlin as it struggles to decide how to deal
with the phenomenon of a globally popular US president after Mr Bush.
It would allow Mr Putin to pursue Moscow�s strategic goal of dividing
Europe from the US by casting America as unreasonable over Russian
security concerns, and then using energy politics to keep Europe
divided against itself.
Mr Obama is coming to the table like a card sharp to a casino, ready
to charm his hosts and pull aces from his sleeve to win support for
crucial objectives in Afghanistan and Iran. But Russia is a land of
chess players, cautious and calculating. Mr Putin does not respond to
charm � and he has just closed Russia�s casinos.
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-C-
Kevin Cunningham
Yeah, Obama, a compulsive reader who runs a bunch of intelligence
agency, won't know who to talk to in Russia. Yeah, right.......