Gas or Electric? If it's gas, try using a flashlight and looking down the
flue hole when it is heating water. You might see mist, indicating a leak
in the flue.
A few years ago I began to notice occasional water on top of the water
heater. Sometimes it would be there, sometimes not. I checked all of the
pipes and fittings and they were always dry, even when there was water on
top of the tank. It turned out that just below the top of the tank, a hole
had rusting through the flue and mist would blow out whenever the tank was
heating water. They mist would rise with the flue gases, make contact with
the "inverted funnel" at the base of the external flue and drip back down
onto the top of the water heater. If not noticed soon afterwards, it would
evaporate.
Perhaps your flue is leaking someplace where you can't see it, and the
condensation is dripping someplace, again, where you can't see it.