On 12/21/23 8:55 PM, The Horny Goat wrote:
> If Texas is not part of the United States how long could the
> Confederacy expect to survive without Texas?
>
Jesus Christ on a pogo stick!
If there is no Mexican War and no acquisition of Texas and
California, the entire course of US history in 1845-1860
is radically changed.
If Texas annexation is for some reason off the table,
the election of 1844 is very different. Clay may well
be elected, with a whole raft policy consequences.
There could still be a Crisis of 1850, because the Missouri
Compromise restricted slavery to a small fraction of the
Louisiana Purchase, much of which was reserved as the
Indian Territory. After 1836, there's only Florida to be a
new slave state, whereas Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and
Kansas will become free states. With parity all but
impossible, Southerners may just give up that fight.
If independent Texas survives, one might see many "hot"
pro-slavery men move there, taking a lot of slaves
with them, draining away much pro-secession energy.
So the Whig Party might soldier on, with them and the
Democrats both accepting the position that slavery may not
expand to new states, nor be interfered with in existing
states.
One might see Stephen Douglas elected President, or Lincoln
going to the Senate.
> Or would this "butterfly away" 180 as well? It would almost certainly
> cancel Lincoln's presidency. (Which was probably the narrowest US
> election victory ever given it was a 4 way race)
Hardly. Lincoln had a 10% margin over his nearest opponent
in popular votes, and over 30% margin in electoral votes.
1844, 1876, 1916, 1960, 1976, and 2000 were all much closer.