Fuel and logistics problems frustrate Russian advance

[SolomonW]

To all long-term contributors to soc.history.what-if does this not seem so
familar. Napoleon, WW1 and WW2 and now this.


https://www.jpost.com/international/article-698800

[a425couple]

It all sounds bizarre.
I have trouble believing something so simple
is causing delays.
They may have a crappy system, and attitudes,
but they are not as individuals, STUPID.

All nation's military's hold some type of command exercises
to iron out all issues of Command / Control / Communication
beforehand. Then they often do what we have been
watching for months, a full field exercise to iron out
the real world logistics issues.

And, YES. A long time ago in a land far away,
I was filling a Major's billet on a General's staff,
in the G-4 Logistics section, for a year of
wartime service.
Semper Fi!

Ha!! You people might think I'm a fool now.
But you should have met me then!!!
Will wonders never cease?
It may have taken an act of congress, but I was
proclaimed "An Officer, and a Gentleman".

[The Horny Goat]

Last I heard Russia was the world's largest oil exporter. So now she
can't keep her troops supplied?

Seems mighty peculiar to me.

[The Horny Goat]

On Tue, 1 Mar 2022 10:50:22 -0800, a425couple <a425c...@hotmail.com>
wrote:

>Ha!! You people might think I'm a fool now.
>But you should have met me then!!!
>Will wonders never cease?
>It may have taken an act of congress, but I was
>proclaimed "An Officer, and a Gentleman".

Well one thing all of us are agreed in this newsgroup is that
governments from time to time do remarkably silly things.

On a related note I am presently reading The Sleepwalkers
https://nvdpl.bibliocommons.com/v2/record/S32C625797
on 'the road to war in 1914'
(saw a Youtube video on this subject by the author so looked up his
book) and there's no question the assassination of Franz Ferdinand
could have been handled without war, certainly not on the scale of
WW1.

I've said before I consider Germany fully earned Article 131 at
Versailles due to the fact that they had no war plan at all that
covered a war involving Russia in the east while not Britain or France
in the west. The war COULD have been contained in the east without a
Western front but German plans ONLY provided for a two front war with
the results we know.

[Dimensional Traveler]

Given that some classify current Russia as a Kleptocracy I don't think
its that peculiar if its true. And there are some signs that Putin has
ruffled the feathers of some of his oligarch "friends".

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

[Robert Woodward]

In article <i60t1htmb20a59a2l...@4ax.com>,

If they don't have a large enough logistic tail, it could easily happen.

--
"We have advanced to new and surprising levels of bafflement."
Imperial Auditor Miles Vorkosigan describes progress in _Komarr_.
-------------------------------------------------------
Robert Woodward robe...@drizzle.com

[SolomonW]

On Tue, 1 Mar 2022 10:50:22 -0800, a425couple wrote:

> a full field exercise to iron out
> the real world logistics issues.

Somehow this lession never sticks.

[SolomonW]

On Tue, 01 Mar 2022 12:24:35 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:

> Last I heard Russia was the world's largest oil exporter. So now she
> can't keep her troops supplied?
>
> Seems mighty peculiar to me.

Berlin, in the 1920s and early 1930s, was onr of the capital of the world’s
fashion industry yet German troops withour winter clothing froze in
Stalingard.

[dama...@gmail.com]

A large proportion of Russian Army soldiers are conscripts on a one year term of service. If you think about how much training they could possibly get in one year, then it is easy to see why there are logistical failures. If there is stupidity involved, it is in the politicians/oligarchs who send such soldiers into battle who are stupid.

[Dimensional Traveler]

Or someone forgot that no plan survives contact with the enemy.

[pyotr filipivich]

The Horny Goat <lcr...@home.ca> on Tue, 01 Mar 2022 12:24:35 -0800
typed in alt.history.what-if the following:

Remember how Venezuela had to import the chemicals to turn their
oil into gasoline?

Just because they can pump it out of the ground, doesn't mean they
can get the refined products delivered to the front.

>Seems mighty peculiar to me.

--
pyotr filipivich
"History rarely repeats herself" is the cliche. In reality she just
lets fly with a frying pan yelling "Why weren't you listening the first time!?"

[The Horny Goat]

On Tue, 01 Mar 2022 21:45:41 -0800, Robert Woodward
<robe...@drizzle.com> wrote:

>In article <i60t1htmb20a59a2l...@4ax.com>,
> The Horny Goat <lcr...@home.ca> wrote:
>
>> On Tue, 1 Mar 2022 16:24:37 +1100, SolomonW <Solo...@citi.com> wrote:
>>
>> >To all long-term contributors to soc.history.what-if does this not seem so
>> >familar. Napoleon, WW1 and WW2 and now this.
>> >
>> >
>> >https://www.jpost.com/international/article-698800
>>
>> Last I heard Russia was the world's largest oil exporter. So now she
>> can't keep her troops supplied?
>>
>> Seems mighty peculiar to me.
>
>If they don't have a large enough logistic tail, it could easily happen.

Agreed - though Putin has had as much time as he's felt he needed to
get ready for his invasion and surely his military has told him before
the strike order went out?

[The Horny Goat]

On Wed, 2 Mar 2022 08:09:28 -0800, Dimensional Traveler
<dtr...@sonic.net> wrote:

>On 3/1/2022 10:07 PM, SolomonW wrote:
>> On Tue, 1 Mar 2022 10:50:22 -0800, a425couple wrote:
>>
>>> a full field exercise to iron out
>>> the real world logistics issues.
>>
>> Somehow this lession never sticks.
>
>Or someone forgot that no plan survives contact with the enemy.

Well for sure but arranging your logistics is something one can and
should do in advance.

[Dimensional Traveler]

Putin is emulating Stalin as much as he can and Stalin would not have
liked hearing his generals telling him they weren't ready to attack when
he tells them to....

[a425couple]

On 2/28/2022 9:24 PM, SolomonW wrote:

This is another that really has me perplexed.
(Yeah. Recall that real ASAP the Western coalition
just totally destroyed the Iraq AF capabilities!)

from
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-happened-russias-air-force-us-officials-experts-stumped-2022-03-01/

What happened to Russia's Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped
By Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali

4 minute read
Russian Sukhoi Su-35 jet fighters fire missiles during the Aviadarts
competition, as part of the International Army Games 2021, at the
Dubrovichi range outside Ryazan, Russia August 27, 2021. REUTERS/Maxim
Shemetov/File Photo

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

WASHINGTON, March 1 (Reuters) - Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
U.S. intelligence had predicted a blistering assault by Moscow that
would quickly mobilize the vast Russian air power that its military
assembled in order to dominate Ukraine's skies.

But the first six days have confounded those expectations and instead
seen Moscow act far more delicately with its air power, so much so that
U.S. officials can't exactly explain what's driving Russia's apparent
risk-averse behavior.


"They're not necessarily willing to take high risks with their own
aircraft and their own pilots," a senior U.S. defense official said,
speaking on condition of anonymity.

Vastly outmatched by Russia's military, in terms of raw numbers and
firepower, Ukraine's own air force is still flying and its air defenses
are still deemed to be viable - a fact that is baffling military experts.

After the opening salvos of the war on Feb. 24, analysts expected the
Russian military to try to immediately destroy Ukraine's air force and
air defenses.

That would have been "the logical and widely anticipated next step, as
seen in almost every military conflict since 1938," wrote the RUSI
think-tank in London, in an article called "The Mysterious Case of the
Missing Russian Air Force."

Instead, Ukrainian air force fighter jets are still carrying out
low-level, defensive counter-air and ground-attack sorties. Russia is
still flying through contested airspace.


Ukrainian troops with surface-to-air rockets are able to threaten
Russian aircraft and create risk to Russian pilots trying to support
ground forces.

"There's a lot of stuff they're doing that's perplexing," said Rob Lee,
a Russian military specialist at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

He thought the beginning of the war would be "maximum use of force."

"Because every day it goes on there's a cost and the risk goes up. And
they're not doing that and it just is really hard to explain for any
realistic reason."

The confusion over how Russia has used its air force comes as President
Joe Biden's administration rejects calls by Kyiv for a no-fly zone that
could draw the United States directly into a conflict with Russia, whose
plans for its air force are unclear.

Military experts have seen evidence of a lack of Russian air force
coordination with ground troop formations, with multiple Russian columns
of troops sent forward beyond the reach of their own air defense cover.

That leaves Russian soldiers vulnerable to attack from Ukrainian forces,
including those newly equipped with Turkish drones and U.S. and British
anti-tank missiles.

David Deptula, a retired U.S. Air Force three-star general who once
commanded the no-fly zone over northern Iraq, said he was surprised that
Russia didn't work harder to establish air dominance from the start.

"The Russians are discovering that coordinating multi-domain operations
is not easy," Deptula told Reuters. "And that they are not as good as
they presumed they were."

While the Russians have been under-performing, Ukraine's military has
been exceeding expectations so far.

Ukraine's experience from the last eight years of fighting with
Russian-backed separatist forces in the east was dominated by static
World War One-style trench warfare.

By contrast Russia's forces got combat experience in Syria, where they
intervened on the side of President Bashar al-Assad, and demonstrated
some ability to synchronize ground maneuvers with air and drone attacks.

Ukraine's ability to keep flying air force jets is a visible
demonstration of the country's resilience in the face of attack and has
been a morale booster, both to its own military and Ukraine's people,
experts say.

It has also led to mythologizing of the Ukrainian air force, including a
tale about a Ukrainian jet fighter that purportedly single-handedly
downed six Russian aircrafts, dubbed online as "The Ghost of Kyiv."

A Reuters Fact Check showed how a clip from the videogame Digital Combat
Simulator was miscaptioned online to claim it was an actual Ukrainian
fighter jet shooting down a Russian plane.

Biden led a standing ovation in support of Ukrainians in his State of
the Union speech on Tuesday, praising their determination and mocking
Putin for thinking he could just "roll into Ukraine" unopposed. read more

"Instead he met a wall of strength he never imagined. He met the
Ukrainian people," Biden said.

The United States estimates that Russia is using just over 75 aircraft
in its Ukraine invasion, the senior U.S. official said.

Ahead of the invasion, officials had estimated that Russia had
potentially readied hundreds of the thousands of aircraft in its air
force for a Ukraine mission. However, the senior U.S. official on
Tuesday declined to estimate how many Russian combat aircraft, including
attack helicopters, might still be available and outside Ukraine.

Both sides are taking losses.

"We do have indications that they've lost some (aircraft), but so have
the Ukrainians," the official said.

"The airspace is actively contested every day."

[Trolidan7]

I am of the mind that the U.S. Supreme Court is wrong.

The draft is simply slavery and WWI and WWII was all about
governments throughout the world finding a way to mass enslave
nearly everyone at least temporarily. (Yes slavery and
serfdom had different properties and was also called different
names at different points in time in history and location,
and were referred to using words in different languages.)

Nonetheless under some circumstances it seems feasible to me
that the troops could turn around and march on Moscow with the
intent to overthrow Putin.

The basic question however, is whether a military coup would
be better than having Putin remain in power until he is the
age of 110 or so through voter fraud or something like it.
(Who knows how easily it is done, and how easily those
who administer it can be manipulated or influenced in
any election.)

It is not obvious but I am thinking the next election at least
by the current constitution is about two years from now.

It is not obvious whether some type of Yeltsin phenomenon would be
a good thing, and it is not that easy when fighting is actually
going on.

You know, performing maneuvers and bluffing for one's position is one
thing, but carrying it out is quite a different matter. I am thinking
that Putin was out of it for thinking that it would stabilize his regime
rather than destabilize it.

Of course you never know about the future. Maybe this is a minor
setback. Then again maybe not.

[a425couple]

On 3/2/2022 12:51 PM, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
> On 3/2/2022 11:57 AM, The Horny Goat wrote:
>> On Tue, 01 Mar 2022 21:45:41 -0800, Robert Woodward
>> <robe...@drizzle.com> wrote:
>>
>>> In article <i60t1htmb20a59a2l...@4ax.com>,
>>> The Horny Goat <lcr...@home.ca> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Tue, 1 Mar 2022 16:24:37 +1100, SolomonW <Solo...@citi.com> wrote:

---------------snip-----

>>>>
>>>> Seems mighty peculiar to me.
>>>
>>> If they don't have a large enough logistic tail, it could easily happen.
>>
>> Agreed - though Putin has had as much time as he's felt he needed to
>> get ready for his invasion and surely his military has told him before
>> the strike order went out?
>
> Putin is emulating Stalin as much as he can and Stalin would not have
> liked hearing his generals telling him they weren't ready to attack when
> he tells them to....
>

Yes.
And By the Way, one of the things I found enjoyable
about Turtledove's Balance series, was the way Trutledove
had Molotov being very careful and deferential and
wary about whatever Stalin said and ordered.
But, on a couple of points offering his opinion, and
the clear knowledge / acceptance that that could spell
his death.

[Rich Rostrom]

Trent Telenko reports that apparently Russian forces
neglected routine maintenance of many wheeled vehicles,
including IFVs, AFVs, missile launchers, and others.

They were left parked in sunlight for months, which degrades
the rubber in the tire sidewalls.

Also, many of these vehicles have built-in systems for
controlled tire inflation and deflation. The latter is
used when the vehicle goes off road in mud; partly
deflated tires don't bog down. But these system were not
maintained - the air lines develop leaks and clogs.

Worse yet, when the vehicle goes off-road with deflated
tires, the degraded rubber fails, and the tires come apart.
Ukrainian forces have captured many Russian vehicles that
were abandoned after bogging down with with ruptured tires.


--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

[Zebee Johnstone]

In alt.history.what-if on Fri, 4 Mar 2022 11:00:02 -0600

Rich Rostrom <rros...@comcast.net> wrote:
> On 2/28/22 11:24 PM, SolomonW wrote:
>> To all long-term contributors to soc.history.what-if does this not seem so
>> familar. Napoleon, WW1 and WW2 and now this.
>>
>> https://www.jpost.com/international/article-698800
>
> Trent Telenko reports that apparently Russian forces
> neglected routine maintenance of many wheeled vehicles,
> including IFVs, AFVs, missile launchers, and others.
>
> They were left parked in sunlight for months, which degrades
> the rubber in the tire sidewalls.
>

And an addendum to that thread by someone else: The pic shows very
cheap Chinese tyres, that are known to degrade quickly. Want to bet
someone got good money out of that buying decision?

Zebee