The 2014-2015 ISIS Caliphate and the equivalent location in 640 AD switch places

[WolfBear]

What if the 2014-2015 ISIS Caliphate and the equivalent location in 640 AD switch places with the help of Alien Space Bats?

[Rich Rostrom]

WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com> wrote:

> What if the 2014-2015 ISIS Caliphate...

As of what date? A map of ISIS territory at the Event
would be very valuable.

> and the equivalent location in 640 AD...

Again, what date?

> switch places...

ITYM "switch times".

> with the help of Alien Space Bats?

I wouldn't call it "help".
--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

[WolfBear]

On Saturday, March 20, 2021 at 10:30:00 AM UTC-7, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > What if the 2014-2015 ISIS Caliphate...
>
> As of what date? A map of ISIS territory at the Event
> would be very valuable.
>

Whenever the ISIS Caliphate was at its peak.

> > and the equivalent location in 640 AD...
>
> Again, what date?
>

You yourself can decide this.

> > switch places...
>
> ITYM "switch times".

Yes--thanks!

[WolfBear]

TBH, what I'm curious about is this--would ISIS actually be able to recreate aspects of modern life and modern technology--such as oil extraction, oil processing, cars, tanks, and guns--from complete and total scratch? ISIS would initially have a caliphate of around six million people with an average IQ of perhaps around 85 (15% of which might have an IQ of 100+); they could obviously expand initially, but their newly conquered subjects are NOT going to know ANYTHING about modern technology in this scenario. They would have to be taught everything from scratch.

[Graham Truesdale]

On Saturday, 20 March 2021 at 22:26:16 UTC, WolfBear wrote:
> On Saturday, March 20, 2021 at 10:30:00 AM UTC-7, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> > WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > > What if the 2014-2015 ISIS Caliphate...
> >
> > As of what date? A map of ISIS territory at the Event
> > would be very valuable.
> >
> Whenever the ISIS Caliphate was at its peak.
> > > and the equivalent location in 640 AD...
> >
> > Again, what date?
> >
> You yourself can decide this.
> > > switch places...
> >
> > ITYM "switch times".
> Yes--thanks!
>

For the purposes of this thread, let us say that the area ISOTed is what is shaded grey in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_of_Iraq_and_the_Levant#/media/File:Territoires_de_l'Etat_islamique_juin_2015.png and that the dates are 1 June 2015 and 1 January 640.

For a start, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omar is Caliph, with his capital in Medina. In theory Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi would owe allegiance to him. In light of the history of written and spoken Arabic since 640, and the level of divergence of each, would they find it easier to communicate in writing rather than orally?

Omar had been a senior companion of Muhammad, so will have first-hand knowledge of him and his teachings, and ABaB will not be in a position to dispute anything that Omar says about him or them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Quran "According to Islamic tradition, the Qur'an was first compiled into a book format by Zayd ibn Thabit and other scribes under the first caliph — Abu Bakr Siddiq. As the Islamic Empire began to grow, and differing recitations were heard in far-flung areas, the Quran was recompiled for uniformity in recitation (r. 644–656 CE).[2] under the direction of the third caliph — Uthman ibn Affan. For this reason, the Qur'an as it exists today is also known as the Uthmanic codex.[3] According to Professor Francis Edward Peters (1991), what was done to the Quran in the process seems to have been extremely conservative and the content was formed in a mechanical fashion to avoid redactional bias.[4]" So as of 640 the recompilation hasn't happened yet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali (601-661), who was the founder of Shia Islam (or at least is seen as having been such), is alive and well and living in Medina. If I were a seventh-century life assurance broker, I would be reluctant to give him life cover.

There is also the 'mirror-image' question of what happens when the seventh-century versions of [what is now eastern Syria and north-west Iraq] show up in 2015. There will presumably be people there who had known Muhammad, and there will be copies of the then-current version of the Koran. Which will be interesting for the Islamic world in general and perhaps for the Saudi monarchy in particular.

[WolfBear]

Would Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi likely to become a general or perhaps some sort of senior official in Omar's Caliphate in this TL?

[Rich Rostrom]

WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com> wrote:

> TBH, what I'm curious about is this--would ISIS
> actually be able to recreate aspects of modern life

> and modern technology...

No. There would be a tranche of UT equipment, very
little of which could be replaced. There _might_ be
enough information in libraries in the UT Zone to enable
production of crude bits of UT tech - spark-gap radios,
steam engines, muzzle-loading firearms. 90% of the
UT equipment will break down or wear out within months.

And there would be relatively few people in the UT Zone
with significant technical knowledge and ability,
compared to the large number of gun-happy thugs.

> ISIS would initially have a caliphate
> of around six million people with an average IQ of

> perhaps around 85,,,

Where do you get this from? I've read that the median
IQ in sub-Saharan Africa is about 85, but the Middle
East is very different - it's been civilized and
urbanized for millenia.

[WolfBear]

I'm talking about the present-day Middle East. And that's the impression that I get from that region's PISA scores, as well as from the PISA scores of Arabic-speakers in countries such as Israel and France.

I don't know if the Middle East has experienced dysgenics over the last 1,400 years--possibly as a result of the spread of FBD cousin marriage to there from the Arabian Peninsula (as a part of the spread of Islam)--but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if Middle Easterners had more genetic intelligence potential in the past than they currently have, on average.

FWIW, southern Italy doesn't perform that hot on PISA either, but better than Middle Easterners. Though environmental factors might be a part of why Middle Easterners are underperforming in regards to PISA.

You can see some of this data on Table 7 here:

https://shoresh.institute/archive.php?f=research-paper-eng-Gruber-PISA.pdf

On the PISA exam, Israeli Jews perform a standard deviation better than Israeli Arabs do, on average. And Israeli Jews presumably also includes Mizrahi and Sephardi Jews. Interestingly enough, the native Arabic-speakers in Australia perform relatively well on PISA, but then again Australia has a cognitively elitist immigration policy, so ...

But Yeah, I really do wonder if there was significant dysgenics in the Middle East and/or North Africa over the last 1,400 years--possibly related to the spread of FBD cousin marriage there from the Arabian Peninsula.

[Graham Truesdale]

If Omar was in possession of images of Muhammad and drank alcohol in moderation (see https://www.abuaminaelias.com/abrogation-and-specification-in-the-quran/ on "the gradual prohibition of alcohol.") and ABaB discovered this, the latter might declare the former a heretic and declare the ISOTed Caliphate to be the true successors of Muhammad. Much to the bemusement of everybody who had known him.

[WolfBear]

Is there any evidence that Omar actually possessed any images of Muhammad?

[Graham Truesdale]

Not that I know of - which is why I said 'if'. You may want to look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depictions_of_Muhammad#Portraiture_of_Muhammad_in_Islamic_literature