Cap Allon - El Nino Exaggerations - La Nina - Azores High

[AlleyCat]

El Niño Exaggerations

El Niños are driven by natural factors - even the AGW Party concedes this.

A lot of MSM ink has been spent claiming that this newly developing El Niño
will accelerate the impacts of "climate change'. However, each observation can
be fully explained by natural forcings - the leap to "CO2 demonizing" is not
necessary, nor logical.

Even mainstream climate researchers are having a hard time slapping dire CAGW
projections onto the recently observed trends.

Daniel Swain, climate scientist at UCLA, argued during via a Youtube question
and answer session earlier this week that he didn't believe "this current
escalation is necessarily an indication that there's any dramatic
underestimation of the warming", claiming this to be "two steps forward and one
step back - that's the natural variability, if you will..."

Additional specific natural factors giving climate scientists pause to think
are listed below, including quotes...

La Niña

Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at payments company Stripe, is keen to
attribute much of of the warming to the transition out of the rare triple-dip
La Niña cooling phase of the Pacific.

"In general, I think the level of excitement around recent sea surface
temperature records in some quarters is a bit over the top," Hausfather told
Axios via email. "We don't have any evidence that warming is accelerating
beyond the range that scientists have previously predicted it would," he said.

Sahara Dust

Hausfather's view was shared by others, including -believe it or not- Michael
Mann of the University of Pennsylvania.

Mann has also identified abnormally low levels of dust blowing from the Sahara
Desert across the Atlantic, pointing to this being a key reason why parts of
the tropical Atlantic are giving warm readings.

Dust transport can suppress Atlantic Ocean temperatures, points out Mann, which
also makes the atmosphere less hospitable to tropical storms and hurricanes - a
doubly whammy for the climate hawkers.

Azores High

An additional forcing driving sea surface temperatures higher is the Azores
High, or, more accurately, a lack thereof.

The tweet below, courtesy of Brian McNoldy, senior Research Associate at the
University of Miami Rosenstiel School, shows the High's strength and position
over the past two weeks and then the historical strength and position over the
same period:

Brian McNoldy
@BMcNoldy

Follow
One of the biggest culrpits in driving the astonishing warming of the North
Atlantic sea surface temperatures is the (lack of) the Azores High. These two
frames show its strength & position over the past 2 weeks and then the average
strength & position over the same period. [1/2]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1668647605956403201
https://twitter.com/i/status/1668647605956403201

McNoldy: "The much weaker and displaced High reduces the trade winds over the
tropical Atlantic and northern Africa, which in turn reduces the evaporational
cooling of the water and reduces the transport of Saharan dust across the
eastern tropical Atlantic."

Wrap Up

Suffice it to say, El Niño, like its cold counterpart La Niña, is an entirely
natural climatic phenomenon, and so, in turn, any impact it has on the climate
must also be regarded "natural'.

Warming sea surface temperatures during El Niño are to be expected, just as
cooling is during La Nina.

The fact that the AGW Party went on radio silence during these past three
years, during the rare triple-drip La Niña -a setup that their doctrine claimed
would be impossible by now, by the way- is very telling.

These warm-mongers have been sitting on their hands, waiting for the natural
cooling pattern to wain. And now that it has, boy howdy are they making up for
lost time, pouncing on this mere whiff of climatic warming and claiming it
evidence of the end of times: "This is both worrying and scary," is how UCL
professor Mark Maslin recently -and brainlessly- put it on Twitter.

My own personal and long-held contention is that low solar activity (a Grand
Solar Minimum) will drive Earth into its next bout of prolonged global cooling:
its next ice age (little or otherwise).

Solar cycle 25, though historically weak, does look to have the edge over its
predecessor, solar cycle 24. However, and as has also been my contention,
publicly expressed since 2018, it will be solar cycle 26 where the real fun to
begins.

I expect SC26 (starting ?2029) to deliver a true "Dalton" or even "Maunder"
Minimum-level drop off in the sun's output, with global temperatures -having
now expended their ocean inertia-driven lag throughout SC24 and SC25- dropping
with it , as they always have and, one can only assume, always will.

Despite the unceasing CAGW rhetoric, I am bracing for cooling...


alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, alt.politics.liberalism, alt.politics.trump,
alt.politics.democrats, can.politics, alt.global-warming
=====

June: Soooooo Hot!

Record Cold Europe

Greenland SMB Climbing

Mt Washington's Snowiest June Ever

California's Summer Snow At 13 Feet

Thick Ice Forces Russian Ships To Take The Long Way Round

Record Cold Across Belarus And Latvia

Chill Stretches Perth Power To The Brink

Alerts Issued As Cold Front Smacks Western Australia

Freezing Lows Sweep New Zealand

June Snow In Colorado

'Gold Rush 2.0" Thanks To California's Historic Snowpack

Impressive Greenland SMB Gains

Bone-Chilling Lows Grip Northern India

Extreme Chills Grip Northern Europe

Shimla's Record-Cold Start To June

=====

May: Soooo Hot!

May Down Under: Forecast vs Reality

China's Colder-Than-Average May

Low Temperature Records Continue To Fall Down Under

Australia's Record-Cold May

Australia's Coldest-Ever May Temperatures

Record Cold Continues To Sweep Australia

Record Monthly Cold Sweeps Queensland

Australia Suffers Record Lows And Early Snows

Anomalously-cold temperatures across the entire continent of Arsetralia

Another Cooler-Than-Average Month Down Under

Bone-Chilling Lows Grip Northern India
NOAA: Low Temp Records Outstripping Heat By 2-1
"Unprecedented" Frosts Destroy Northeast Vineyards, Orchards...
Australia Sees Year-Round Snowpatches, As Record Cold Persists
Frosts Sweep Europe
UK's Year Without A Spring
"Pneumonia Front" To Sweep Midwest
Alaska's Fourth Cold Winter In A Row
Record Frosts Sweep The Ukraine And Russia
Winter Arrives Early In New Zealand
Cold Czech Republic
Northern India's Coldest Start To May Since 1987
Mongolia's Brutally Cold Winter Kills Livestock -
Leaves 212,000 People In Need Of Aid
Pakistan's Frigid April
Cold Winter Reduces North Dakota Mule Deer Numbers
Alaska's Very Cold April
Cold And Wet Kenya
Eastern Europe's Freezing April Spills Into May
Historic May Cold On Course For Michigan
Record Cold Sweeps India
Solar Activity Down, Global Temperatures Down
Arctic Sea Ice Up
Six Straight Cold Months For Cheyenne
Nome's "Coldest April In A lifetime"
Cool UK
Record Cool Latvia
Reversed Polarity Sunspot

[AlleyCat]

[Kym Horsell]

Not a big surprise to reg readers of A.G-W where the IR sats have been telling us the story for 8 weeks now.
But it seems the news has now filtered out of the data processing centres of the major science agencies around the world.
The JMA was the first to officially announce the jump in temps; and today the Hadley UK people and NASA and NOAA have all just made announcements.

As I pointed out before -- it's not just the new records but the size of the jumps. After 170+ years you expect new records to just be a creeping bit higher than the old values. The times for the mile run are just shifting down by seconds each new record. Because global avg temps usually take into account millions or billions of datapoints each time they usually only creep up .01C for each new record. But today the hike is .1C or more.

*******************************
may 2023: GLOBE new record +.82; NH +.93 record; SH +.71 record: Hadley SSTv5

Hadley has FINALLY updated it 174 year dataset to the end of May 2023.
It finds, like other agencies, the world's oceans are getting
ultra-warm and the globe, the NH and SH all recorded startling new
records for the month. And the new El Nino had not been visible then
with ENSO temps in the equat E Pac all still being in -ve to neutral
territory. The switch happened suddenly this time.

GLOBE:
2023 0.81879 <-- NEW RECORD
<-- big gap 0.1 == 10x usual
2020 0.71318
.01
2016 0.70494
2015 0.69010
2017 0.65802
2019 0.65642
2022 0.64816
2021 0.64274
2018 0.63019
1998 0.59424

NHEM:
2023 0.93099 <-- NEW RECORD
2020 0.89907
2016 0.87960
2015 0.82108
2021 0.78606
2022 0.77903
2017 0.76074
2018 0.75308
2019 0.73649
2014 0.67370

SHEM:
2023 0.71251 <-- NEW RECORD
<-- big gap = .11
1998 0.60493
2019 0.58485
2015 0.57028
2017 0.56848
2016 0.55059
2020 0.54436
2022 0.52425
2018 0.51891
2021 0.51186

TROP:
2016 0.85299
1998 0.81590
2020 0.80272
2023 0.77377 <-- #4
2017 0.74090
2010 0.73447
2015 0.70759
2019 0.68107
2014 0.64842
2005 0.55818

--
[David Grusch's] assertion concerning the existence of a terrestrial arms
race occurring sub-rosa over the past eighty years focused on reverse
engineering technologies of unknown origin is fundamentally correct, as
is the indisputable realization that at least some of these technologies
of unknown origin derive from non-human intelligence.
-- Col Karl Nell (ret), 06 Jun 2023

[Sooo Cooold!]
Punishing winds, possible tornadoes inflict damage as storms cross US South
AP, 15 Jun 2023 10:53Z

Texas Heat Wave May Break Temperature Records
NYT, 15 Jun 2023 09:52Z

Triple-digit heat index scorches Bay Area
FOX 13, 15 Jun 2023 07:55Z

South Florida experiencing extreme heat: How to avoid heat stroke
Palm Beach Post, 15 Jun 2023 0:56Z

IBM quantum computer beat a supercomputer in a head-to-head test
New Scientist, 15 Jun 2023 01:21Z

Quantum Computing Advance Begins New Era, IBM Says
NYT, 15 Jun 2023 02:56Z

New findings suggest hundreds of millions of planets may harbor life
New Atlas, 01 Jun 2023
The researchers also found that M dwarf stars with multiple planets were
more likely to have these more circular, gentle orbits,...
[About 3/4 of stars are type M compared with ~7% type G similar to our sun].

Government rushes through law to stop new Russian embassy being built near
Parliament House
ABC News, 15 Jun 2023 02:36Z
A lease held by the Russian Federation for an embassy close to
Parliament House has been cancelled by the federal government.

EU agrees on draft AI rules including ban on facial recognition surveillance
ABC News, 15 Jun 2023 0:44Z
European Union politicians agree to draft artificial intelligence (AI)
rules that include a blanket ban on the use of the technology in
biometric surveillance and predictive policing systems.

Collectors attempt to block the export of 111-year-old tractor they say
belongs in Australian hands
ABC Rural, 15 Jun 2023 0:43Z
Vintage tractor enthusiasts campaign to block the export of
the International Titan Model D, built in 1912, that they say has
significant cultural heritage value.

Original cost of troubled overpass based on 1980s designs, amid $100m blowout
ABC News, 15 Jun 2023 0:43Z
The Northern Territory's Infrastructure Commissioner says plans dating
back to the 1980s to upgrade a notorious intersection in Darwin were
handed over to a contractor in 2021, before the project suffered
numerous cost blowouts.

Multi-million dollar clean-up continues after 'mind-boggling' damage to
Pardoo Station
ABC Pilbara, 15 Jun 2023 01:41Z
When Scott Fraser arrived at Pardoo Station from inland Queensland, he
was not expecting to face one of Australia's most severe cyclones.

Forecast huge swells prompt warnings for sightseers, excitement for surfers
on WA coast
ABC Great Southern, 15 Jun 2023 01:42Z
Unstable weather off southern WA could see huge swells pounding the
coast from Augusta to Albany today.

'A stunning discovery for astrobiology': Key building block of life found
on Saturn's moon Enceladus
ABC News, 15 Jun 2023 01:40Z
High concentrations of phosphorus have been detected in ice crystals
spewed from the interior ocean of Saturn's moon Enceladus, adding to
its potential to harbour life, researchers say.

New Zealand slips into shallow recession as bad weather takes toll
ABC News, 15 Jun 2023 02:32Z
New Zealand is experiencing a recession after two quarters of negative
GDP growth to March 2023, according to data released by Stats NZ.

'Cheeky' billboards outside UK hospitals as SA aims to poach striking doctors
ABC News, 15 Jun 2023 02:34Z
SA health authorities resort to some unconventional tactics --
described as both "ruthless" and "cheeky" -- to recruit overseas
doctors, parking billboards outside UK hospitals where doctors are on
strike in a bid to lure them to Australia.

Demand for oil to `shrivel' by 2028, says global energy authority
Yahoo News Australia, 14 Jun 2023 21:01Z
The world's demand for oil is set to "shrivel" before the end of the decade,
according to the leading global energy authority ...

Vegas UFO mystery deepens as cops install cameras at home where residents
reported seeing 'aliens'
Hosted on MSN, 14 Jun 2023 13:24Z
But I can tell you right now. Cops don't come out and put up expensive video
equipment up like that -- and they certainly wouldn't for someone calling in
a report about a UFO.' During the initial 911 ...

US military granted unimpeded access to key Papua New Guinea defence
facilities in new security agreement
ABC News, 14 Jun 2023 10:23Z
The United States military is being given "unimpeded access" to key PNG
defence facilities, including the joint PNG-Australia Lombrum Naval Base on
Manus Island, as part of a sweeping Defence Cooperation Agreement.
[Interesting things happening in the Coral Sea and not all of them
related to China].