Warm Up Your Below-Rudimenatary "Flood/Killfile" Filter, swill - Physicist William Happer: "There Is NO Climate Emergency" - Part 4

[AlleyCat]

Part 4

C'mon... let's hear it... bu bu bu but AllllleeeeeyyyyCaaaaatttt.... Happer's
not a cliiiimmmmatttte scientist!

Go ahead... piss, moan, cry and whine... just remember, your credentials are
Kindergarten-level compared to this guys. Oh... yeah... you can piss and moan
about them not having "climatology" degrees, but a PHYSICS degree encompasses
pretty much ALL, INCLUDING climate, so piss off.

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There is a lot of history here and so there are two historical pictures. The
top picture is Max Planck, the great German physicist who discovered quantum
mechanics. Amazingly, quantum mechanics got its start from greenhouse gas-
physics and thermal radiation, just what we are talking about today. Most
climate fanatics do not understand the basic physics. But Planck understood it
very well, and he was the first to show why the spectrum of radiation from warm
bodies has the shape shown on this picture, to the left of Planck.

The horizontal scale, left to right is the "spatial frequency" (wave peaks per
cm) of thermal radiation. The vertical scale is the thermal power that is going
out to space. If there were no greenhouse gases, the radiation going to space
would be the area under the blue Planck curve. This would be the thermal
radiation that balances the heating of Earth by sunlight.

In fact, you never observe the Planck curve if you look down from a satellite.
We have lots of satellite measurements now. What you see is something that
looks a lot like the black curve, with lots of jags and wiggles in it. That
curve was first calculated by Karl Schwarzschild, whose picture is below
Planck's picture.

Schwarzschild was an officer in the German army in World War I, and he did some
of his most creative work in the trenches on the eastern front facing Russia.
He found one of the first analytic solutions to Einstein's general theory of
relativity while he was there on the front lines. Alas, he died before he got
home. The cause of death was not Russian bullets but an autoimmune disease.
This was a real tragedy for science. Schwarzschild was the theorist who first
figured out how the real Earth, including the greenhouse gases in its
atmosphere, radiates to space. That is described by the jagged black line.

The important point here is the red line.

This is what Earth would radiate to space if you were to double the CO2
concentration from today's value. Right in the middle of these curves, you can
see a gap in spectrum. The gap is caused by CO2 absorbing radiation that would
otherwise cool the Earth. If you double the amount of CO2, you don't double the
size of that gap. You just go from the black curve to the red curve, and you
can barely see the difference. The gap hardly changes.

The message I want you to understand, which practically no one really
understands, is that doubling CO2 makes almost no difference. Doubling would
replace the black curve by the red curve. On the basis of this, we are supposed
to give up our liberties. We are supposed to give up the gasoline engines of
our automobiles. We are supposed to accept dictatorial power by Bernie Sanders
and Ocasio-Cortez, because of the difference between the red and the black
curve. Do not let anyone convince you that that is a good bargain. It is a
terrible bargain. The doubling actually does make a little difference. It
decreases the radiation to space by about three watts per square meters. In
comparison, the total radiation to space is about 300 watts per square meter.
So, it is a one percent effect-it is actually a little less than that, because
that is with no clouds. Clouds make everything even less threatening.

Finally, let me point out that there is a green curve. That is what happens if
you take all the CO2 out of the atmosphere. No one knows how to do that, thank
goodness, because plants would all die if you took all the CO2 out of the
atmosphere. But what this curve is telling you is that the greenhouse effect of
CO2 is already saturated. Saturation is a jargon term that means CO2 has done
all the greenhouse warming it can easily do. Doubling CO2 does not make much
difference. You could triple or quadruple CO2 concentrations, and it also would
make little difference. The CO2 effects are strongly saturated.

https://i0.wp.com/www.independent.org/images/article_images/2021/2021_03_11
_happer_14_1400x787.jpg?ssl=1

You can take that tiny difference between those curves that I showed you, the
red and the black curves, and calculate the warming that should happen. I was
one of the first to do this: in 1982 I was a co-author of one of the first
books on radiative effects of CO2. (Above) is my calculation and lots of other
people's calculations since. It is a bar graph of the warming per decade that
people have calculated. The red bar is what has actually been observed. On the
right is warming per decade over 10 years, and on the left, over 20 years. In
both cases the takeaway message is that predicted warmings, which so many
people are frantic about, are all grossly larger than the observed warming,
which is shown by the red bars.

So, the observed warmings have been extremely small compared to computer
calculations over any interval that you consider. Our policies are based on the
models that you see here, models that do not work. I believe we know why they
do not work, but no one is willing to admit it.